Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
BTN ($40.00) [VPIP: 20.6% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 38% | Flop Agg: 40.8% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 5.5% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 381]
SB ($60.00) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
BB ($85.40) [VPIP: 10.4% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 16.7% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 13.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 11.8% | Hands: 49]
UTG ($50.00) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 32% | Flop Agg: 35.7% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 12.7% | 4-Bet: 50% | Hands: 165]
HERO ($67.03) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.1% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 27.3% | River Agg: 30.9% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | 4-Bet: 16.6% | Hands: 243311]
CO ($60.50) [VPIP: 20.4% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 31.6% | Flop Agg: 37.5% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 20% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 103]

Dealt to Hero: 8 Q

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $1.43, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.93

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.09 effective]
Flop ($3.11): T T K
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.55 (Rem. Stack: 64.05), BB Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: 82.42)

Turn ($6.21): T T K Q
BB Checks, HERO ?

I would think check, you need some flushes when it comes in in your check back range, this seems like a perfect combo

yeah but then we never have a boat when it comes running Queens.

I wonder what Qx we should bet? Maybe AQ?

Why does that even matter?

pretty even split I think. It's a meh turn

I think solver splits with this particular holding.

I ran a sim, I don't have Q8s in my open range, but it range bets flop with Q9s (it mixes 75% and 33% sizing with this combo).

On .75psb turn, it mixes a barrel/check, then just x's turn with 0.33 psb

Not exactly sure how that changes when we range half pot flop, but I think it's fine either way

I'm studying multiple pot jams on certain run outs.

For example BTNvsBB A33r board we cbet range for small OTF, turn is a K. We can't always check Kx here because if we do then when the river comes another K we never have Kings full.

So let's say we bet turn with a hand like KQ (small sizing) Villain calls with AT. River comes another K. Villain checks. Now we can ship all in, doesn't matter how many times pot it is because Villain never has top boat.

We can do this as a bluff as well - which would much better I'm thinking.

It's the same concept as when the turn/river run out make new nut hands that Villain will never have because they won't be in his calling range. Like when we cbet 65s on a K72 board and the run out comes 3/4. Villain will almost never have A5s and will definitely never have 65s. So we can develop 10x pot ships OTR.

okay yeah these mixed frequency plays get me sometimes. If i had bet the turn i could have shipped AI OTR.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
BTN ($40.00) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 13.7% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | Turn Agg: 38.7% | River Agg: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 4.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 429]
SB ($60.00) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 31]
BB ($85.40) [VPIP: 11% | PFR: 5.5% | AGG: 11.1% | Flop Agg: 20% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 8.3% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 15.4% | Hands: 74]
UTG ($50.00) [VPIP: 18% | PFR: 16.1% | AGG: 32% | Flop Agg: 35.7% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 12.7% | 4-Bet: 50% | Hands: 169]
HERO ($67.03) [VPIP: 24.7% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.1% | Flop Agg: 40.1% | Turn Agg: 27.2% | River Agg: 30.9% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | 4-Bet: 16.6% | Hands: 243714]
CO ($60.50) [VPIP: 20.2% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 29.2% | Flop Agg: 30% | Turn Agg: 37.5% | River Agg: 16.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 135]

Dealt to Hero: 8 Q

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $1.43, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.93

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.09 effective]
Flop ($3.11): T T K
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.55 (Rem. Stack: 64.05), BB Calls $1.55 (Rem. Stack: 82.42)

Turn ($6.21): T T K Q
BB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($6.21): T T K Q Q
BB Checks, HERO Bets $12.21 (Rem. Stack: 51.84), BB Calls $12.21 (Rem. Stack: 70.21)

yep x turn and big river
2x might be a bit much, you wouldn't be comfortable betting this big with Tx
mby you can split and go 1.5x with Qx and 66-75% with Tx, mby AJ and AA

What would be your bluffs with this line? Axs?

no not Ax, those have a decently +ev x/
should have plenty of mid to small scs and small pairs with less sdv, just not the diamond ones

You can just bet your non-spade Qx hands.

Now that I think about it some more. I don't think this makes sense.

If the standard play is to check back with a Q. Then shouldn't we have all the Qx on the river if it comes running Queens?

Fold pre

Betting with Qx makes no sense...we are beat too often. It's okay if we never have a Q when a third one comes because we can also have KK and TT.



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I have it as a fold as well, but I don't think it's terrible in this spot.

BB is playing pretty nitty and no one else behind seems that aggro.

I was saying if we bet the turn we never have Queens full OTR if we always check a Queen OTT which is what people are advocating.

okay cool. yeah underpairs that got counterfeited make sense, thanks.

We aren't beat that often. Villain's flop calling range includes a lot of underpairs/FD's/Axdd that Qx beat. Probably should be betting small with our range though if we bet.

Under pairs aren't calling and neither are those Axdd combos because they have no flushdraw

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You are folding 7s7x/8s8x/9s9x OTF? Those hands are way above Minimum Defense Frequencies.

MDF? bb has to massively overfold on this flop.

MDF on the flop? :O

If this is 50 blitz I don’t think betting is a disaster but I would always check.

from what i understand solver like to bet pair+fdraw type hands with a somehwat high frequency when they either fold out equity ( FE ) or fold out better hands (BE ).

since villain should probably be folding quite a bit Kx ott i assume this hand would be bet more often than checked. also i dont think villain is ever able to tell if you pure bet this hand or mix it so you can probably always "rep" Queens full.

You have plenty of Qx on the river in your betting range with QT and KQ.

Imho you're overapplying the concept of having a well diversified range on a variety of runouts. You want to avoid having a capped range vs an uncapped range, yes, and this is to prevent your opponent from betting all-in with the part of his range that has 100% equity vs your range.

Just for fun though, let's just say that somehow in this example you never bet any Qx combo on the turn. Your opponent therefore receives the opportunity to donk jam for stacks on any Q river. However, the river is a Q 4% of the time, and your opponent is limited to betting only the remaining stacks (this isnt a particularly deepstacked situation), and is also limited by the total combos of Qx in their range with regards to their overall jamming frequency. So true, you would lose 100% of the potshare in this scenario, but you would only be losing it to his Qx+bluffs region (maybe 10% of range can jam, as an estimate), multiplied by 4% for this specific runout. The point I'm trying to get at is that this is not going to significantly effect the EV of this theoretical turn scenario to the extent that you would be very worried about adding in a marginal number more combos as traps for this particular river.

Also not to mention that villains typically don't donk jam it in here in practice, so you're unlikely to face the correct betsize that hurts your EV anyways.

So basically, yeah, just check your Qx here, as you are well defended anyways by your full house and quads combinations. It's really bad to get check raised off your equity here by trips and straights, and your hand is not strong enough to get value nor likely to make Kx fold

4%-> i mean 6ish% for the sticklers lol