Villain playing 49/46/7.7(3bt) over 36 hands.

I think pre-flop and flop are fairly standard. Turn is where I think lines could differ.

So after villain checks, it feels like the white flag has gone up. Villain is likely to have at least one overcard, and Im not sure I want to give him a free card to draw to it.

Is our preferred line to check back turn and fire safe rivers (bluff catch if villain bets river) or go for value now?


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37931234

BTN: $8.06 (80.6 bb)
SB: $10.75 (107.5 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $10.30 (103 bb)
Hero (MP): $12.09 (120.9 bb)
CO: $10.06 (100.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.85) 9 9 8 (2 players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.05) T (2 players)
BB checks,

Our hand isn't that vulnerable. We just don't want a King or an Ace to come. Betting is fine I just don't see much value on a BB range to be had on this board. Maybe a couple of Tx that got SDV and decided to go for a x OTT, but apart from that I don't know what else calls that we beat that are made hands

Bet the turn. We have the best hand very often, opponent will call with worse, and we dont want to give free cards in a 40bb pot.

We have blockers to the top end of the straight draw, and there's not much worse he's calling a bet with at all- maybe a Tx hand but I don't think too many are in his 3bet range PF.

I'm checking here, we're only afraid of an A or K, give villain a chance to bluff the river when he misses and go for value if he checks to you.

The flop and turn hugely favour our range (we likely have T9, 99, TT, maybe 88 and 98). That's why more thinking Villains may check back their overpairs on the turn. For that reason seems better to check, esp on rainbow board with extra outs.

EDIT: Missed he was 50/50/7, well then you may throw this away lol.

bet, you have a great hand and have little implied odds should you hit a str8

I originally thought a bet was best here, but after looking at some specific likely ranges for our hand, it seems like JJ might be in the middle of the pack (after flatting the 3b and calling the flop best) - and thus best for a check back.

Our overall range on the turn is probably pretty small here (unless we float the flop w/ lots of random overs + gssd's, instead of bluff-raising them).

Giving ourselves a sample range of JJ-44, 98s-76s and A9s/K9s/Q9s, JJ falls right in the middle and is probably a clear check - unless we're betting our entire range (Note that I assumed we would raise at least some 9s on the flop, such as J9s and T9s - leaving the A9s and K9s as calls to allow villain to catch up with his As and Ks).

And the fewer weak hands we have such as 44-66 and suited connectors, the lower JJ falls in our range, making it more of a check.

Clearly, I don't know what the Hero's range is for prf/call in this spot, but I am just putting this out there as how it seems we should be thinking about what our best action is. I am open to any criticisms on my thought process.

Checking and betting under 1/3 pot are both fine here. V can check that card with his overpairs and doesn't have much worse that can continue, so we don't want to barrel too big.