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Old 04-07-2021, 05:02 AM   #1
Grumblebrand
journeyman
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 218
Turn 2x overbet push vs whale?

Villain is a complete idiot.
I was wondering if I should push on the turn because this way I can get the calls from draws that would fold on the river. On the turn I'm ahead and I don't care if he wins but on the river my EV is 0.
I don't think I can fold on the river with the flush blocker.
I often see the turn overbet push line from good players.

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 167.6 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 69.95 BB
UTG: 103.8 BB
MP: 111.85 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 5.5 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 2 6 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 12 BB, UTG calls 12 BB

Turn: (40.5 BB, 2 players) 4 (SPR is 2)
UTG checks, Hero bets 34.4 BB, UTG calls 34.4 BB

River: (109.3 BB, 2 players) 7
UTG bets 49.9 BB, Hero calls 46.1 BB

Spoiler:

Last edited by Grumblebrand; 04-07-2021 at 05:08 AM.
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:10 AM   #2
Ramius
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Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Warsaw
Posts: 768
Re: Turn 2x overbet push vs whale?

sizings are all wrong, decide you want to play 2 or 3 streets poker on flop, i dont mind going 9bb preflop if you have read he is bad enaugh to call this, would be easier postflop
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:15 AM   #3
pjj
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 511
Re: Turn 2x overbet push vs whale?

I don't think you played this one badly, I think all spots here are pretty justified. I think you correctly identify the turn as the key decision point.

The problem with your bet size here is that you won't be able to fold the river very often, and villain is getting very close to the correct implied odds on a call with a FD. However, considering only pot size (and not stack size), your bet is good.

The other two ways you could resolve this would be sizing down a little on previous streets. For example, 6.5-7bb pre, then 9-10bb otf. That would leave you with a pot Ott of 32.5-35.5. You could then bet turn for 21-24bb and leave yourself with both some fold equity or the ability to fold more of your range otr.

However, if you feel you're playing against a calling station, and seen his hand, you'd be justified in thinking so, I think you can even size up a little pre, to 8-9bb, pot otf, and jam Ott. As played, if you feel like your jam is getting called by a 9, a lot of over pairs, and /or some FD, it would be fully justified.
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:29 AM   #4
Grumblebrand
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Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 218
Re: Turn 2x overbet push vs whale?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pjj View Post
I don't think you played this one badly, I think all spots here are pretty justified. I think you correctly identify the turn as the key decision point.

The problem with your bet size here is that you won't be able to fold the river very often, and villain is getting very close to the correct implied odds on a call with a FD. However, considering only pot size (and not stack size), your bet is good.

The other two ways you could resolve this would be sizing down a little on previous streets. For example, 6.5-7bb pre, then 9-10bb otf. That would leave you with a pot Ott of 32.5-35.5. You could then bet turn for 21-24bb and leave yourself with both some fold equity or the ability to fold more of your range otr.

However, if you feel you're playing against a calling station, and seen his hand, you'd be justified in thinking so, I think you can even size up a little pre, to 8-9bb, pot otf, and jam Ott. As played, if you feel like your jam is getting called by a 9, a lot of over pairs, and /or some FD, it would be fully justified.

Thank you for the detailed explanation
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