Villain is 18/9 over 78 hands. Do we fold here?

no

What do we think he's x/shoving OTT? Seemed kind of passive.

no clue

Don't fold. Call and let Jesus take the wheel.

Call. He could have a 2 pair plus, but we have at least 8 clean outs. He could easily be on a draw himself or be overplaying a weaker pair.

A tight passive fish/nit really isn't likely shoving the turn with a draw.So it's whether we have direct odds vs TJs and sets. By my calculations it's quite a big -ev call around $1.50-ev as we only have 18% equity and we need around 40% equity to make a break even call. Even if villain does have a few bluffs they aren't going to have enough bluffs to make up the difference in equity to make a call profitable here. It's such a big shove compared to the bet and pot size that were getting really bad odds.

vs a looser aggressive player maybe a call because they do overplay Jx, But it's hard to put him on a bluff on turn that didn't cR flop, something like 9d8d or Qd9d maybe but you're repping strength with your turn sizing so its a set of 22,66,or TJ and maybe just a couple of combo draws.

I think you'd be surprised. Even players that are otherwise super passive like to get trigger-happy with draws. I think players are also more likely to overbet with draws. I think you usually see a smaller raise from 2 pair/sets.

It's not about villain having some bluffs it's about villain having enough bluffs. Villains range isn't even wide enough in the SB to contain those bluffs.

I don’t think he is ever just x/c on the flop with sets or 2p. I am always calling here as I am only really scared of it making it on the turn, though I don’t know if he’d over get that kind of hand in this spot. If he is playing slow played QQ or something this way then kudos for that ridiculousness but I wouldn’t fold with only 28 hands on him as there are good draws he can shove too.

Some people like to play hands like AA this way.

He doesn't need to have "many" bluffs if his line is much more likely to be taken with bluffs.

I wouldn't discount AA TJs or sets taking this line. It's a passive looking nit flatting in the sb AA TT 66 22 TJs are very likely combos for them. Villains flatting range is pretty narrow and doesn't contain many if any low suited combos. And your blocking the vast majority of broadway bluff combos villain might shove Like this because you have the Kd and Jd. From a pot odds point of view vs villains sb range i believe it's a bad call. Of'course villain can have a couple of bluff combos like AdTd. But if we call and pick of one of the few bluffs it doesn't make the call any better, from a pot odds perspective vs villains range.

I hear what you’re saying here but I think even the most passive opponent is raising AA here, otherwise what 3betting range can that player type intrinsically have? I guess at 5nl you’d b likely to find these players though so I can see the x, large turn bet having value-heavy merit here. Still annoying to have to consider folding to such a weakly-played Hand if he is so passive.

We don't have 3bet stats so we don't really know.It's just a possibility when considering villains range so id add perhaps 1 combo of AA to villains range. So villain has 22 value combos here, and needs to have 8 bluff combos to make a call +ev for us.

First point on that is i think it's probably an unreasonable range as this player type cant have all the small connected suits like 67+ 86s+ there just to tight. Secondly villain needs to get here with more than just 8 combos of bluffs as they aren't taking this line with all possible combos of draws they have in their range.

I would think they have around 3 maybe 4 possible bluff combos with possibly AdTd being the most likely shove for them here and maybe 8d9d if it's in the range.We block a large part of the bluffing range and we don't beat any of the value range. It's only the spr stopping it being a call for me vs this player types range. Were just getting such bad odds. You cant ever discount running into an unexpected hand either but i think those will be very minimal and aren't going to change the EV of the hand.

Considering his stack (75bb) we can assume the player is bad.
It's true that at 5nl this line is extremely strong: x/c x/r, but from my experience this kind of player:
1. likes to spew and takes strange lines, with bad hands.
2. he doesn't have a balanced range, so we can't expect a reg range here.
3. he might never shove sets, but making small raises trying to "keep you in the pot".
4. he could've raised all sets on the flop considering is a flush draw and "is scared of the flush coming ott.
So, unless i have info he's actually not doing those i would never fold TPGK here. I mean defining a range is pretty hard, as he can actually hold AJ, AQ here or overplay pocket pairs if he's tilted(i know doesn't makes sense, but i've actually saw a lot of those plays at that limit)

Board: T62*J
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****56.82%**54.95%***1.87%*{ KdJd }
SB*****43.18%**41.31%***1.87%*{ TT+, 66, 22, JTs, AdKd, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Jd9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AJo+, KJo+, JTo }


Assuming he's pushing draws, combodraws, sets, Top Two and overplayed Overpairs


Some numbers. Maybe I assume SBs range to be to loose here. But even if you make it way tighter the odds cry for a call.

From a mathmatical standpoint you need
(3,41-,49)/(,75+3,41*2) = 2,92/7,57 = 0.39

Villain cant have half them draws you block them , and a'lot of them wont be in a nits range for flatting pre. And it's probably fair to assume villain has a 3betting range and 3bets some of those combos pre.

Oh yeah I messed that up.

Board: T62*J
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****47.11%**47.11%***0.00%*{ KdJd }
SB*****52.89%**52.89%***0.00%*{ TT+, 66, 22, AdQd, AdTd, QdTd, Ad9d, Td9d, Ad8d, Td8d, 9d8d, Ad7d, 9d7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, JhTd, JsTd, JcTd }

Now we would be flipping. Still good enough for a call.

Of course V has a 3bet range. But i like to make a worst case assumption that everything in his 3bet range might also be in his CC / Trap range.

Most of those hands can't be in the nits range their stats don't allow it. Unless for just this one hand there playing 35/30.