Had a tough spot on the river that I really wanted to fold but in the end decided on a call.


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 22.11, PFR: 18.59, 3Bet Preflop: 7.35, Hands: 207)
SB: 134.6 BB (VPIP: 42.19, PFR: 40.63, 3Bet Preflop: 15.00, Hands: 65)
BB: 121.4 BB (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 16.86, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 269)
Hero (UTG): 281.8 BB
MP: 182.8 BB (VPIP: 27.21, PFR: 20.87, 3Bet Preflop: 5.96, Hands: 996)
CO: 71.8 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J J

Hero raises to 2.4 BB, fold, CO calls 2.4 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.4 BB

Flop: (7.6 BB, 3 players) K 9 2
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (7.6 BB, 3 players) J
BB bets 6.4 BB, Hero calls 6.4 BB, fold

River: (20.4 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets 20 BB, BB raises to 112.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 92.6 BB

Reasons for the call:

- Felt like my hand was super underepped/capped considering flop check and turn flat. Think given the presence of two flush draws on the turn our perceived river range is very weak and bluff heavy when these brick. Think this allows villain to jam thinner for value than usual (maybe some two pairs but mostly lower sets). The potential for dominating some his value range was what made me call even though I wanted to fold at a high frequency.

Still not really sure about this because I feel like his bluffing frequency is basically 0 even though this was an aggressive villain. These kinds of spots I generally like to overfold but not really sure about this hand, feel like it's very close. Another thing is if I always fold this hand then what am I calling with here, not really worried about balance but yeah..feel like this is basically the best hand I can have here. Might be overthinking this but I really feel like making these kinds of folds is where a significant portion of my win-rate comes from.

I'd raise the turn. Hard to put KK in villain's range so there's really only one hand that beats us and we get value from weaker sets, two pairs, and tons of draws.

As played on the river, eh...How many missed draws does villain do this with? If his range is exclusively 99, 22, QTs, and QTo, then we're fine to lay it down. If he has bluffs in his range, we can start thinking about a call.

No. We never lay this down because he has 99 and 22 in his range.

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We're not getting odds to call though if his range is exclusively 22, 99, and QTo/QTs. There are a lot more combos of the nuts than the other two hands.

Board: Kd 9c 2d Jc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 6 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 99, 22, QTs, QTo }

Sure, but give him a few missed draws and what happens?

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Yep, that's what I was saying in my original post, not sure how many missed draws we can give him here. Seems like he'd fire another bullet rather than x/r if that was the case. But for the point of this thread, if we add AQ/AT/A9 both clubs and diamonds, we're at about 40% equity, so definitely an improvement.

Board: Kd 9c 2d Jc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.741% 40.74% 00.00% 11 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 59.259% 59.26% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 99, 22, AcQc, AdQd, AcTc, AdTd, Ad9d, QTs, QTo }

Give him a5 too

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Looks like we'd be able to call at that point.

Board: Kd 9c 2d Jc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.828% 44.83% 00.00% 13 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 55.172% 55.17% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 99, 22, AcQc, AdQd, AcTc, AdTd, Ad9d, Ac5c, Ad5d, QTs, QTo }

Sorry, meant k5 and k9.

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Thanks for the replies. Think Markulous could be right. One thing I haven't mentioned is that the pool is crazy nitty preflop, especially the regs. I don't give him any combos of Q10o and I'm not sure he always flats Q10s but this could be me projecting my own ranges. The problem with flatting Q10s here is that you are often dominated by both the UTG & CO range and in a nitty pool I am fairly sure this is a minus EV flat but who knows. So my question is, if I assign him no Q10o and only the occasional Q10s does this become more of a call? Seeing the equity distribution including his value range of 99/22 was actually pretty surprising, thought it would be much closer. Overall though I agree he just continues betting river with his bluffs and I'm fairly sure the line he took is 100% value. Think in future unless I have someone labelled as a maniac I will look to let this hand go.

Oh, well in that case, this makes it a call even without any bluffs if QTo is not in his range.

Board: Kd 9c 2d Jc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 4 0.00 { 99, 22, QTs }

Sorry, probably should have mentioned that to begin with but yeah deffo not in his range. Thanks for the help!

Slam dunk call. Still not thrilled with calling the river c/r. You essentially have the best possible hand in your range (unless you slow play KK and do not raise your QTs that may be in your flop check range on the turn as well).