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NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($13.08) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 38.9% | Flop Agg: 42.9% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 60% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 34]
SB ($12.87) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 39.7% | Hands: 302]
HERO ($13.42) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.7% | Flop Agg: 40.7% | Turn Agg: 27.7% | River Agg: 31.5% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | 4-Bet: 16.5% | Cold Call: 6.9% | Hands: 272683]
UTG ($15.70) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 31.3% | Hands: 806]
HJ ($23.69) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 12.6% | AGG: 41.6% | Hands: 324]
CO ($12) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 34.7% | Hands: 4889]

Dealt to Hero: J 9

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.25, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.15

Hero SPR on Flop: [23.33 effective]
Flop ($0.55): 7 7 A
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.22 (Rem. Stack: $12.61), HERO Raises To $0.71 (Rem. Stack: $12.46), BTN Calls $0.49 (Rem. Stack: $12.12)

Turn ($1.97): 7 7 A K
HERO Bets $1.97 (Rem. Stack: $10.49), BTN Calls $1.97 (Rem. Stack: $10.15)

River ($5.91): 7 7 A K 5
HERO Bets $1.47 (Rem. Stack: $9.02)

I don't like your turn sizing, I'd bet smaller, but as played I think river is fine

Initially I didn't like this combo to be x/r, I don't think the 2nd nur bdfd is quite enough. Even if we decide to x/r I couldn't imagine it would be at a high freq let alone a pure raise. Also the 40% sizing gave me a pause, not sure this is necessarily a rangebet.

Hence I had to run a sim. Turns out IP was only betting less than 50%(45%) with this sizing, which lead this combo to be a pure fold. But I guess we can give IP some chance this might be a rangebet. Even if we do: Turns out J9o remains a pure fold.

I guess your thought process involves the bdfd and some kind of blockers to a 7, which I agree to, but J9o is a bit off. 98o with a heart on the other hand is mixing equally between r/c/f.

Before you're asking:
I'm using these ranges:
OOP: IP: and a rather simple but fairly realistic gametree without donking.

I don't think any of those parameters are so far off that this becomes a clear x/r. I think this should be a very very rare x/r at best.

put money in with good hands

it's not just that easy IMO

Agree, this is a flop where we have to fight back quite a bit. There are slightly better candidates tho.

without looking at the solver i would assume flop is a 5% raise at best

With that combo or our whole range? Are you anticipating a range bet a proper split?

With this combo

As to whole range since we are only raising 7x for value and for obvious reason not raising all of them, our overall raising frequency should be quite low as well. Bluffs should be flush draws mostly and very low frequency of some one heart combos and backdoor diamonds. Could be way off though

nah you can't x/r this flop with garbage
there's very little x/r going on this board, he has an easy time defending, same amount of 7x or more
I'm pretty sure turn bets on a 3rd heart are almost exclusively small after x/r

Add blockers to the 7 and your spot on.

I disagree, if we are anticipating a range bet we should be raising around 31% according to GTO+, I don't think that is "very little".

If we are assuming V is playing optimal for this sizing we should still be raising around 10% where 70+% of this range is weaker than trips..

range betting for that sizing should be a pretty big mistake so I dont think we can assume that

Well it's "only" 4% (32.13 vs 30.83) ev differnce, I agree it is quite a big mistake, but I can imagine people will be more likely to over cbet here. Thus I still think we should still keep that in mind.

he's not supposed to bet range and you don't know if he does. this was a fad 2-3 years ago.
and it's more like 5% or less vs a 1/2p gto land range
there are paired boards you can x/r a lot, A mid mid 2flush isn't one of them
either way, if you don't know what you're doing, it's a good idea to not put money in with bad hands

I believe it's that simple, when choosing your bluffs, you gotta pick non garbage because money money and it controls your frequencies

Well that wasn't really my opinion but rather the results of said sim.. So your 5% would be a little low.

Looks like this hand isn't a XR. I was surprised a hand like 54s without any BDFD was XR before this hand.

turn sizing is the bigger mistake tho

Why is that? I have more flushes in my range than Villain

I gave GTO+ those sizings for the turn cbet:

33c,66c,80c,100c,140c to my extreme surpise it chose to bet exclusivly 33% at a freq of 81% ...

I didn't adjust any ranges. Wow. Can someone give me a reasoning for such sizing?

nvm you are right per usual. thx ionu

Just seems like a really bad flop to get involved in. Wet board with a potential set / potential nut flush to beat yours. Especially when he calls your 3x x/r on the flop and then continues to call your pot-sized bet on the turn, it's hard to imagine him not having a better flush, in addition to his stats, the guy seems like somewhat of a reg.

I would have just called the flop and tried to keep the pot small to the river.