Not sure if I should just be shipping here or Xing. If I had QQ-AA i think this is a good sizing?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
BTN ($11.41) [VPIP: 24.1% | PFR: 19.3% | AGG: 50% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | Hands: 86]
HERO ($10.64) [VPIP: 27.9% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 32.7% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Hands: 7892]
BB ($10) [VPIP: 23.4% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 35.3% | 3-Bet: 7.1% | Hands: 383]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 11.3% | PFR: 10.4% | AGG: 30% | 3-Bet: 7.5% | Hands: 108]
HJ ($18.44) [VPIP: 25.2% | PFR: 20.2% | AGG: 41.8% | 3-Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 614]
CO ($33.75) [VPIP: 29.7% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 42.3% | 3-Bet: 8.7% | Hands: 290]

Dealt to Hero: A 5

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, BB Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($0.60): J 3 8
HERO Bets $0.30 (Rem. Stack: 10.04), BB Calls $0.30 (Rem. Stack: 9.40)

Turn ($1.20): J 3 8 J
HERO Bets $0.85 (Rem. Stack: 9.19), BB Calls $0.85 (Rem. Stack: 8.55)

River ($2.90): J 3 8 J J
HERO Bets $4

We block missed fd and I m not sure if QQ+ can jam river given that he has nonzero number of jx.I would rather use 9T 79 ans beckdoor fd to bluff

Use T9,QT,T7,Q9 not a hand that blocks hearts

xcalling turn is also an option

Wait don't I want him to have T9? i guess i want him to have hearts too. Are there just way more heart combos that call turn then T9 so we want to unblock them?

T9 also blocks Jx, A5 doesnt really since he may 3b AJ and fold J5o pre

but yeah bluffs go like this, gutshots > oesd > fds
Obvs prefer the gutshots and oesd not to have clubs/hearts

But then again, is having bluffs on JJJxx board worth it. I doubt it sincerely.

I would be checking a lot ott.

Way to ice me this morning, btw, DDP. You're not allowed to do that.

You are basically holding the only hand in villain's range that we want to bluff.

lol yeah that was a major cooler. dont worry im losing hands like this today so the doomswitch is on.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
BTN ($10) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 20% | 3-Bet: 13.3% | Hands: 30]
HERO ($10) [VPIP: 27.7% | PFR: 23% | AGG: 32.7% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Hands: 8213]
BB ($19.33) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 37.9% | 3-Bet: 5.2% | Hands: 704]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 57.1% | 3-Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 290]
HJ ($11.63) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 18.9% | AGG: 40.7% | 3-Bet: 8.5% | Hands: 935]
CO ($10.15) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 20.1% | AGG: 38.4% | 3-Bet: 5.2% | Hands: 761]

Dealt to Hero: A K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.20, HERO Raises To $0.80, BB Folds, BTN Raises To $2.50, HERO Raises To $10 (allin), BTN Calls $7.50 (allin)

Flop ($20.10): J 8 4

Turn ($20.10): J 8 4 8

River ($20.10): J 8 4 8 6

yeah i need to stop trying to get people to fold boats. okay so FDs are the worst of the 3 thanks. What about a hand like KQ:. Would that be the GOAT bluff combo OTT? since we don't block floats and block his strongest Jx?

this is a confusing sentence. are you saying we want villain to have A5 here?

yep KQss is a great hand to bluff turn and river with

AhXh yes, what else do we want him to lay down otr? 8x and pps, not gonna happen bvb often enough.

This is an example where combos flip flop as the hand plays out. Blockers and the nfd make A5hh is a great c-bet on the flop, but by the river on a 3rd barrel you are holding the wrong combo.

This one in particular can work as bet flop, check-call turn, reevaluate river (an ace river is probably good).

yep xcall turn is great since he has a lot of gutshots that will fire river when flush hits

yeah the flip flop concept has me confused sometimes. i think i like a x/c too after analyzing the hand since he might raise some Jx OTT and i dont want to get blown off equity.

Range check flop is a good simplification, if you wanna have a betting range otf it should be smaller (25%-33%) or bigger(80%-100%). OTT range check after betting is another good simplification, if you want to have a betting range there go polarized to stong Jx+ for value with enough semibluffs and a big sizing, but range checking is easier to play.

OTR just x/f, you have some SDV and block villain's folding range and he has a lot of Jx

Also, a simple rule of thumb on the river, is that any ace-high is usually “too good” to turn into a bluff. There are exceptions of course, but studying those exceptions can lead to treating all the other cases as standard.

Now, don’t go berserk, but ace high usually is a valid candidate for check-raise bluff. This is rare, since you can only do this in balance with AA and quad J’s.

Emphasis: RARE

Could you define simplification?

Even though xc turn has merit, so does barreling when we hit the nut flush bvb, and for that reason, it makes me want to barrel. Although checking is definitely good since if we aren't checking this, what flushes do we have in our range otr when we xc turn?

As played, I think the river size is fine as long as you're committed to betting this much with your value range, although I would just stick to my normal sizing to keep things simple.

With regards to the combo you chose, yea, it isn't the right one as others have pointed out. And I also agree with the idea it's probably pointless to have a bluffing range for any size here. There is just so much EV in having a range heavily weighted towards value hands. That size in particular makes people call more I think.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 31.91, PFR: 26.60, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 96)
BB: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 21.19, PFR: 17.88, 3Bet Preflop: 6.00, Hands: 157)
UTG: 222.3 BB (VPIP: 30.56, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 37)
MP: 105.1 BB (VPIP: 24.37, PFR: 19.80, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 204)
CO: 54.8 BB (VPIP: 23.26, PFR: 2.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
Hero (BTN): 404.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB)

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 4.5 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) J T 8
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 7
MP checks, Hero bets 8.6 BB, MP calls 8.6 BB

River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) 4
MP checks, Hero bets 40 BB, MP calls 40 BB