I use Harrington's inspired HUD on PT4 and I'm reading the grinder's manual where Pete suggests other stats.

I wonder how the 'Fold vs BTN open' relates to 'Fold blind to steal'. I know the definitions but don't really know if I should replace one with the other. The fold vs BTN open seems a lot more specific but it also takes ages to consolidate. My guess is Fold blind to steal becomes reliable alot sooner ? how many hands do you reckon ?

I'm not sure if I have enough villains with that kind of handsample in my database. I actually hope to be long gone from NL2 before I actually do.

The 'BB fold vs SB open' stat also seems like a good one to add. Allthough specific it gives good information for all the times in the SB but here it is the same as above. 600 hands seems kind of steep before this stat becomes decently valid according the book. Maybe he is just a bit on the precautionous side of things ?

Can anyone help me out here ? What are the best stats to consider for adjusting stealing range from CO, BU and SB ? What do you guys have running ?

I'm running the Fold to Steal stat in my hud and have the more detailed stats in the popup.

re the 600 hands for BB fold to steal, that will equal around 25 spots where a player has been in the BB facing a small blind raise (more like 20 maybe, and much fewer if small blind limping prevails in the population). So even that’s not exactly reliable.

Plus the calling frequency should vary quite a bit depending on the size of the raise so having faced a couple of 4x opens over this sample will skew things further, for example. My own view is that with less than a 1k sample it’s only worth looking at VPIP/PFR.

If you play micro stakes my advice is to focus on fold BB to steal and fold to Cbet.

How much hands do you reckon it takesfor fold BB to steal to be valid ?

I would say around 100

So this is a big topic which probably warrants more discussion than it gets on a lot of places, given the crux of poker should be working out how to maximally exploit a given opponent. We should have some idea of how the population plays and exploit those tendencies as a default. The question is then what reliability do we need for a given tendency from a specific player to override this and exploit him differently from our pop exploits.

Over 100 hands villain has been in BB ~16 times. Of those times let’s say very roughly he faces an open raise from CO, BTN or SB half of the time, so our sample is effectively eight hands. Now if it’s an extreme outlier like 0 or 100% then we can perhaps start to think about adjusting. But there’s no way we should be deviating from our default play if it’s just 10% or so away from a ‘normal’ number.

The problem is that if we deviate wildly from our default strat, we then end up playing a pretty bad/exploitable strategy ourselves, and if it turns out that villain is actually relatively solid and the outlying stat was just due to variance, then we likely end up doing pretty badly (even if villain doesn’t actually notice what we’re doing and counter exploit us)

To give a concrete example, if we see villain folding to SB vs BB steals 75% over a 100 hand sample, we might decide we can profitably minraise ATC. If it turns out villain is actually defending the BB somewhat reasonably, even if not optimally, then we end up owning ourselves by playing a really weak range OOP.