Also thought's on sizing's

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($8.27) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 15.9% | AGG: 34.8% | Hands: 44]
SB ($11.46) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 23.1% | Hands: 44]
BB ($14.29) [VPIP: 43.8% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 12% | Flop Agg: 10% | Turn Agg: 12.5% | River Agg: 14.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 50% | Hands: 35]
UTG ($22.21) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 20.5% | Hands: 127]
HERO ($31.39) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 21.5% | AGG: 34.6% | Flop Agg: 40.6% | Turn Agg: 27.7% | River Agg: 31.5% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | 4-Bet: 16.4% | Hands: 269496]
CO ($10.80) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 41.5% | Hands: 279]

Dealt to Hero: 6 K

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.22, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.12

Hero SPR on Flop: [28.71 effective]
Flop ($0.49): 7 5 3
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $30.93), BB Calls $0.24 (Rem. Stack: $13.83)

Turn ($0.97): 7 5 3 2
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.37 (Rem. Stack: $29.56), BB Calls $1.37 (Rem. Stack: $12.46)

River ($3.71): 7 5 3 2 3
BB Checks, HERO Bets $3.71 (Rem. Stack: $25.85),

They don’t particularly like folding. Nope. Check turn

Also 40vpip don’t require overbet bluffs, play exploitatively

Turns I like the double barrel on are large cards TJQKA/4

fringe open from the co

triple is fine I believe

It’s even better when you see the 43 vpip in blinds. What is not fine is bluffing low low boards after they call turn overbet. It’s not even necessary to overbet these players

We even have showdown value

I know solver avoids betting these flops vs bb like the plague, these mid to low connected flops are closest to range checks as the ep raiser in srp
in reality it's prob ok to have some sort of a healthy cb range mby 50% idk

I think otr you want to make a huge bet and he'd have to defend some pairs and overpairs and such. not sure but it might be a jam if you're 100x deep

I'l have to solve this spot bit later 150x deep and will post it

vs this fishy guy, if you want to go full exploit and you think he doesn't fold 7x or better vs a big bet, go as big as you can for thin value, mby 88+ and bluff for a small-ish size a lot cause he still has A highs and weak pairs and random clubs that whiffed, your weak pairs and A highs should have enough sdv to x/, K high won't

why open this pre?
why tripple barrel a fish?

As a default, if there is a straight otf that I never have, I x range

Yes, bluffing 43 vpip fish is a great strategy.

DooDoo - may I ask one question(should not be offensive)
You seem to habe a big polerknowledge and your states look good. Dont you think you spew your tesults with all this triple barrel bluffs you post? Have you ever tried to filter in pt4 or hm2 these triple barrels? I crush NL100 wothout these crazy triple barrel bluffs..

bigger turn, OB River IMO, but don't like hand selection for river bluff, 6h is kind of bad

not standard. bad runout to bluff a fish on, maybe if you bet like 9$ he will fold pairs.

Yep.

I've played a little over 36k hands since the end of May, and am winning at a decent rate.

I rarely attempt triple barrel bluffs.

You need to be picky bluffing this river since you're only repping like 10 combos assuming you don't open 33 and 22.
I think double diamond and double spade combos of 86s and A6s would suffice unless you think villain is overfolding, which not many fishes do.

how big is big? Jamming river never occurred to me but sounds pretty sick.

Yeah I figured Villain still had clubs etc so I wanted to bet river - a small bet sounds good

Never filtered them since I'm still working on my strategies and they change a lot.

I think a lot of people underestimate variance in general when it comes to crushing a stake. You can be a 10bb winner over 25k hands and be a losing player. Or vice versa you can lose over 25k hands and be a HUGE winner in the game.

And those figures underestimate variance so it is even more pronounced than that.

Also I'm going to play poker for the rest of my life so I might as well take the time to figure this sh.it out.

All OP's should bet this river

Only 35 hands on villain, I'd actually take a bet they converge to reg stats rather than the rare 50/20 fish.

Seems alright to me. Not too sure on sizings, they're probably all fine but river might be bigger, as ionutd said. Your overpairs get super nutted and you have no shortage of bluffs to stuff in.

In general I'm a bit more cautious about river bluffs after overbetting turns, but this isn't your everyday runout.

He's playing 43/15 which means he's limped a lot of hands.

Regs don't limp that much.

I tell you how I would play the hand
1) Preflop - I would fold, but ok, its not the end of the world
2) Flop - wet board which mostly misses both ranges. 1/2 pot looks ok to fold out 2 overs.
3) Turn - great turn for us. Now we have a lot of equity. No reason to bet big. Weak holdings fold to a 1/2 bet. We want draws like 86 or XcXc to call (we get them to fold on the river if no club or other scare card comes). Stronger holdings like overpairs or sets do not fold if you bet 1/2pot or 125% pot. If we get raised its also better for us if we have bet 1/2 pot.
4) River bricks. We can bet 1/2-2/3 pot again and all busted draws fold. This fishy villain will not fold TP+ to this potsized size. Only hands that maybe call a 1/2 pot but fold to a potsized bet is 66 (which we block) or some random hand with a 5.

So IMO if we want to 3 barrel we get to the same result with much less money in the pot.
If river was a heart or a 4 then I would bet 2-3x potsize in the river.

I would need to see that limp before starting to make assumptions. It just isn't enough hands to go by stats alone.

Is overbetting overpairs on 7532 and potting river standard?

I don’t think turn overbet here is a thing.

I think river size could be smaller, and I’m skeptical of turn overbet

Pre is a low-frequency open guys, and the player in the bb has nothing to do with it.

I'd bet the flop slightly smaller, the turn larger, and if I decided to bet the river it would be a jam. But there's a good chance I'd just give up against a fishy-looking player on this board.