Opponent plays 24/18 over 500 hands. No specific notes on him. His CO steal is 25% and fold to 3b 50%.

His range should look like this imo: JJ-77,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-AJo,KQo. I think this is accurate since he should be folding a bit more than 50% vs me (I'm seen as a good regular and they are not many regs on this site, plus he probably knows I play $1/2 regularly and lastly my image is TAG).

[converted_hand][hand_history] $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37832531

UTG: $159.32 (159.3 bb)
MP: $58.64 (58.6 bb)
CO: $128.65 (128.7 bb)
BTN: $59.29 (59.3 bb)
Hero (SB): $99 (99 bb)
BB: $236.86 (236.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
2 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, Hero raises to $13, BB folds, CO calls $10, BTN folds

Flop: ($30) 4 7 J (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO calls $12

I went for a bet here because I think PIO has us CBetting a ton in 3b pots, plus we have an equity advantage so I like being aggressive.

Turn: ($54) 2 (2 players)
Hero ?

My strategy is that I can exploit a high fold to CB in 3b pots by c-betting once then giving up (vs weak regs, like him) . On the other hand, I think a triple barrel if we turn a SD is 2nd best line (I expect a fold on the river quite often). Since I don't like a triple vs him (his WTSD is on the higher side @ 29 and he used to be passive) and I don't expect a turn fold, is it too weak to check give-up? Do you guys agree that a turn fold is not very common?

If my population reads are off (high fold to cb on the flop in 3b pots / high call frequenty on the turn after calling flop / high fold frequency to triple barrel), please let me know. Thanks!

In the range you suggest he is ~30% TP+ and 20% PP that shouldn't fold to 1 barrel on J74r. His other hands have RIO and folding them out isn't really necessary. It doesn't set up 2 barrel either when the only turns that get him off Jx improve us anyway. It would be smarter to do this with gutters or KQ+BDFD if we have them for more total outs and less equity.

This cbet would be more for balancing JJ+ and AJs,AJo if you're squeezing those and can't find enough bluffs without it.

If he's overfolding vs. cb in 3bp then it is probably fine in a vacuum if you can get him off TT-88.

JJ+,AJs,AJo is still betting turn for value so I would 2 barrel this if I was balance bluffing flop. I don't think Jx is folding this turn and if he's overfolding flop I don't expect to get floated much. x/f feels weak theoretically but if his range doesn't have enough bluffs then it is just what we have to do. TT-88 should fold but that's probably not worth 2 barrels when he has twice as many combos that aren't folding.

It would only make sense if you can 3 barrel him off Jx on a lot of runouts.

Thank you that really made everything clearer for me!

Cheers

whats your 3b%? may help with deciding whether triple will get enough folds if river blanks. although sb sqz range vs co+btn may be perceived pretty wide
also you can prob bet smaller into 3b pot on the flop to cheapen bluffs