Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
Reasons for R call and T float:
1. V basically repping 66, 67s, 56s. V had quite high foldto3b% so I dont think he has 33,44 in his range. Probably not even 56s. Quite thin value range I would say.
First off, I think you have to be careful about the fold to 3bet stat, as you will need a lot of hands for it to become quite relevant. I think you can make some small adjustments if sample size isn't huge. For example, facing a 2.5bb open, ATo is a fine 3bet (to 4x the open size), but vs a 3bb open, I like folding better. So, assuming a smallish sample size, I think a reasonable adjustment would be 3betting (to 4x the open). However, if villain is showing up with 97s here, I think your assumption he couldn't have 33/44/65s is probably not correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
2. He had quite high bet T %. Probably betting a lot of fds, sds, 77-JJ here. I was floating T because he has probably lot of draws in his range.
Again, t bet % is a stat which will require a reasonable sample size, which you may have, I don't know, but if you don't, I'd be careful about reading too much into. However, this is probably a decent spot to bluff, and you probably have to call with a decent amount of A high (as villain really shouldn't be looking to bluff with many A high, I'm not even convinced they should be using many A high FDs). As villain should probably be looking to mostly 4bet JJ and mostly call TT pre, I don't think calling with AT is a bad idea, blocking one of villain's strongest value hands.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
3. R I was going to fold to a bet like 20-40bb. Might sound insane but this big sizing made me call this. First of all, his valuerange (77-JJ, 66, 76s) wants to bet R smaller mostly since our range is weak. Especially 77-JJ I would expect to valuebet small R. 66,67s probably shoves here but not many combos. SO he still has a lot of draws in his range he decides to bluff will shove. Badregs/recs often are not thinking about what are they repping when they bluff.
I'm relatively sure (although maybe some people with stronger theoretical knowledge may correct me) that when our range is capped (like here, mostly medium strength hands with showdown value), villain should be going big with their value bets and bluffs. Having two sizes might make sense, but my guess is that in theory, we should be calling a river shove with some of our A high, and some small pocket pairs or hands like 54s (if in range), so I reckon even including 77-JJ in an allin size would be correct, although I don't think most micro villains will. I do think that this is a very easy spot for villain to be overbluffing though, as their range should be 2/3 value, and they might have a large selection of potential bluffs. However, villain's hand is actually a great hand to bluff with. Ott, he has a gutshot and no FD, whilst blocking 76s (which may not be a 3bet pre for you, but pretty sure it is something some people 3bet) which is, with 65s and A6s, the only credible 6x you can have. Otr, this has to be close to the worst hand they can have, they unblock all FDs (which would call turn and fold river for you), block some of the strongest hands in your range, unblock all K and A high turn floats. So I would say, villain has actually played this hand pretty well.
On your end, I think pf is marginal but fine, flop is good, turn is close, but blocking TT and having the Ah (which you could use to bluff river on a h) is actually not a bad thing, so I would say is good. River, the A being a h is irrelevant in terms of the FD (as villain would have to make a huge mistake to bet an A), but doesn't actually block any value for villain (like A6s or A3s), so it would be better with As or Ad, and whilst having a 7s or 7c particularly (blocking 77 and 76s), but maybe also an 8 or a 9 (as 88-99 should be more frequent pf calls than TT, which may get 4bet) would be better than a T, your hand is clearly superior as a call to AJ-AK. So I'd say this hand seems to me to have been played close enough to correctly on both ends. The only thing that sticks out to me is that you made some assumptions about villain's range which I feel like villain's actual holding shows to be incorrect.