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Shove river w/ TPTK on this runout? Shove river w/ TPTK on this runout?

06-15-2018 , 05:35 PM
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software


NL Holdem $0.50(BB)
Dealt to Hero: A K
UTG Raises To $1, HERO Raises To $4.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $3.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [4.64 effective]


Flop ($9.75): A 7 5
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $5.87 (Rem. Stack: 84.76), UTG Calls $5.87 (Rem. Stack: 39.38)



Turn ($21.49): A 7 5 9
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $12.74 (Rem. Stack: 72.02), UTG Calls $12.74 (Rem. Stack: 26.64)


River ($46.97): A 7 5 9 8
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $72.02 (allin), UTG Calls $26.64 (allin)



Spoiler:

HERO wins: $96.25
Shove river w/ TPTK on this runout? Quote
06-15-2018 , 08:37 PM
First off, I think your 3-bet size is a bit too large preflop. Usually, I would go around 3-3.5x in these spots and I think going 4.5x makes the UTG continuing range a bit too tight.

I think this type of play is much more villain dependent. If you are against someone who is more stationy and will call you down with any Ax in this spot as well as underpairs like TT or JJ then it's a slam dunk shove. As well if you think V is more straightforward and will shove all their good hands like two pairs and sets on the turn then this shove also becomes better. V also shouldn't really have too many 6's here since no six should technically call that 3-bet preflop.

IMO I think most people would shove then turn with a hand like 99, so I think the likely range that could call your river bet is AQ-AJs, and 88. Against that range, we have 57% equity so I think a shove will be profitable. However, I could easily be putting V on too tight of a range preflop and I'm interested to hear what other people think about this spot.
Shove river w/ TPTK on this runout? Quote
06-15-2018 , 09:59 PM
I think shoving is ok here. I think the main argument for it is that you're going to want to bluff a lot here because the flush missed and that will induce him to call pretty wide. This board isn't great for him, but we are pretty high up in our range and want to bluff a lot. It would be nice if we had the Ac because I think when he has Ac he should be thinking we are more value heavy and will be less likely to call.
Shove river w/ TPTK on this runout? Quote

      
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