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Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL?

07-19-2018 , 03:44 AM
NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
HJ ($10.53)
CO ($11.58)
BTN ($11.85)
HERO ($13.87)
BB ($15.54)

Dealt to Hero K Q

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25 (Rem. Stack: 13.62), BB Calls $0.15 (Rem. Stack: 15.29)

Flop ($0.50) 6 5 K
HERO Bets $0.32 (Rem. Stack: 13.30), BB Calls $0.32 (Rem. Stack: 14.97)

Turn ($1.14) 6 5 K 6
HERO Bets $0.72 (Rem. Stack: 12.58), BB Raises To $2.16 (Rem. Stack: 12.81), HERO Calls $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 11.14)

River ($5.46) 6 5 K 6 3
HERO Checks, BB Bets $3.44 (Rem. Stack: 9.37), HERO?
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-19-2018 , 04:30 AM
Yes fold turn.
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-19-2018 , 06:32 AM
I think folding turn is too nitty in the absence of information on how people play their draws in this spot. Admittedly flop raises with draws will be much more frequent than a call flop, raise turn line (at least in the stakes i have experience with), but villains will probably be mixing it up at different frequencies.

I think it's tough, no idea what is the best play because I can't see villains turn raise bluffs not firing on any river.

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Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-19-2018 , 09:06 AM
Its worth pointing out that depending on your SB open range this hand might not actually be that high up in your range barrel twice range.
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-19-2018 , 07:45 PM
I don't mind betting turn vs population in general because they under bluff (not gonna bluff raise you enough) and they call too much.
Any OESD is calling you, any FD is calling, any K is calling
BUT, as far as I remember this turn is gonna be a check majority of the time because:
1- we almost bet range on this board bvb so we have our entire pre flop range betting this flop (45% range give or take)
2- we cbet range because they overfold. When they defend it means they are not defending as wide as they should, hence they are stronger than they should be, hence we check a lot on turns.
3- this 6 is a muuuuch bettrr card for him than you

I probably would call turn and x/f river vs population...
Folding to the turn raise straight up is not a bad idea either imo...(their not gonna have enough bluffs.. Remember?)
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-20-2018 , 11:56 PM
If you frequently call here on the turn in a vacuum, your win rate will hate you. I like calling here much better (but still not very often) if that 6 on the turn is a club.
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote
07-21-2018 , 04:06 AM
i think im checking this turn a lot. as played you can probably fold
Should we be exploitably over folding this turn/river in 10NL? Quote

      
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