can you guys fold this spot? in my mind i really know he has JJ, but i can't fold...
the question is.. should i niver fold this no matter what? it's just a cooler or i can avoid this? because JJ is the only hand that makes sense
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.95) 8 3 J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.45, BB folds, UTG raises to $1.35, Hero raises to $3.15, UTG raises to $10.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $7.35
Turn: ($21.95) K (2 players, 1 is all-in) River: ($21.95) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Spoiler:
Results: $21.95 pot ($1.00 rake)
Final Board: 8 3 J K A
BB mucked and lost (-$0.30 net)
UTG showed J J and won $20.95 ($10.15 net)
Hero showed 8 8 and lost (-$10.80 net)
You could check in your database for times you're all in on the flop against a fullstack and see how often they have the set. If it's often enough and you have a big enough sample size you could start to fold here against unknowns I guess.
Until you have a big enough sample size I'd be inclined to keep getting it in though.
Never folding this, you're only losing to 3xJJ combos which he can have. You'd have to have very specific reads to fold this. Can't see any 2pairs in his range but some good draws which are happy getting it in with decent equity.
Never folding this, you're only losing to 3xJJ combos which he can have. You'd have to have very specific reads to fold this. Can't see any 2pairs in his range but some good draws which are happy getting it in with decent equity.
You don't really know he has JJs. He has a range and it includes AJ and QQ+. Plenty of opponents at the micros spaz out like this with TPTK and villain can actually be right to gii here with TPTK. If you knew with 100% certainty that villain had a better set you would have folded.
I wouldn't say you can never fold a set otf but this definitely isn't a spot in which I would. The amount you save by avoiding rare set over set spots isn't going to outweigh the -ev decisions on the occasions you'r folding the best hand.
can you guys fold this spot? in my mind i really know he has JJ, but i can't fold...
the question is.. should i niver fold this no matter what? it's just a cooler or i can avoid this? because JJ is the only hand that makes sense
In your mind you know he has JJ, but you still re-raised and called off your stack. What does that make you?
He can just be going with his nfd, straight plus fds, or just random spewing with overpairs. I'm probably flat calling his flop raise as the spr allows us to get the money in on rivers anyways. This also keeps his bluffs in. Not that it changes anything. Folding 88s is not an option as you don't have JJ in your range.