Mostly curious about flop play.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($27.67)
BB ($28.41) [VPIP: 6.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]
UTG ($10.02) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 6]
HJ ($26.01) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 2]
CO ($24.75) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 15]
BTN ($31.31) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: A T

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $2, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.65 effective]
Flop ($4.25): J 4 Q
HERO Checks, HJ Bets $1 (Rem. Stack: $23.01), HERO Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: $24.67)

Turn ($6.25): J 4 Q A
HERO Checks, HJ Checks

River ($6.25): J 4 Q A 6
HERO Bets $2.08 (Rem. Stack: $22.59)

If you are going to split bet/check here, I think this hand goes into bet.

- You really have almost no realizable showdown value. Any pocket pair and any broadway (minus KTs) beat you. You'd have to hope he bets once with a small suited connector and then doesn't hit a pair or bet later in the hand.

- You have a pretty big fat-value range: JJ+, AQ, QJs totals 29 combos. KTs, AK, ATs is only 24 combos, and you can continue vs raise with at least 6 of them (OESD and/or flush draw). I'm discounting suited connectors and suited aces since it is SB vs HJ, but if you have some of them as well and bet only half (fd and bdfd), that doesn't throw the balance off much.

I'd say that your hand is a pretty good bluff candidate otf as it has a straight draw+overcard, as well as not having any fd or bdfd. Effectively, if both flushes don't get in, you need some bluffs, and this is where those straight draws from the flop come in handy. Assuming you 3bet ATs, KTs, T9s, and 98s 100% of the time, you only have 8 combos of those (not including AK, which you could as well) without any potential flushes, and less if those aren't 100% 3bets (which I'm assuming they're not). So, I'd say that all of those hands have to either be part of your cbet range (which should be pretty wide here), or your x/r range.

I think because the value range otf is so large, I'd tend to cbet with this, and maybe keep those AKo with a spade and/or heart for the x/r range.