River huge overbet probe
05-04-2021
, 07:26 AM
What would be your calling rannge?
BTN: 78.1 BB
SB: 105 BB
BB: 155.35 BB
UTG: 204.55 BB
Hero (MP): 105 BB
CO: 100.3 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
T
UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB
Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 5
2
K
UTG checks, Hero bets 5.7 BB, UTG calls 5.7 BB
Turn: (29.9 BB, 2 players) 7
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: (29.9 BB, 2 players) 6
UTG bets 41.85 BB
BTN: 78.1 BB
SB: 105 BB
BB: 155.35 BB
UTG: 204.55 BB
Hero (MP): 105 BB
CO: 100.3 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K
T UTG raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 8.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 6 BB
Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) 5
2 K UTG checks, Hero bets 5.7 BB, UTG calls 5.7 BB
Turn: (29.9 BB, 2 players) 7
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: (29.9 BB, 2 players) 6
UTG bets 41.85 BB
05-04-2021
, 08:27 AM
Quote:
Assuming you're range betting flop, this has to be very close to the top of your range, so it seems to me there is no way you can fold. I'm assuming you'd be betting turn with KQ, maybe KJ as well, and as you have a pretty sizeable value range Ott, you'd want some bluffs in there that aren't 2d, so I'd imagine most of your 98s, if you 3bet them, would also bet turn. Effectively, if you fold this, I think villain has found a spot he can bet any 2.
Interesting, I don't know if he thinks I call a lot with TP on the river and that's why the overbet.
I see valuebet everywhere
05-04-2021
, 08:42 AM
Villain definitely has a range advantage here I think, so in theory it seems to me like a very good spot to overbet (although I'm no expert on the matter). All I'm saying is that in theory, I don't think you can fold this as it is so close to the top of your range, and if you fold this (and villain knows you'd fold it), he can take this line with his whole range and make a profit. Not quite sure what your player pool is like, but if you feel like overbets tend to be unbalanced towards value, then you can fold this exploitatively.
05-04-2021
, 01:51 PM
