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River decision River decision

05-28-2020 , 11:32 AM
So he is repping mostly hearts and straights since I doubt he keeps barreling R with set. Question here in my part is; Do we want to just call or raise?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 141.7 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 103 BB
UTG: 109.7 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 98.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q 9

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5 9 J
BB checks, Hero bets 1.7 BB, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 4.3 BB

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 6
BB bets 5.5 BB, Hero calls 5.5 BB

River: (28.5 BB, 2 players) 8
BB bets 18.2 BB,
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 11:42 AM
I'd have raised the turn. AP, I just call - most of his flushes are higher than yours
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 11:42 AM
Shove. With those bet sizes I'm weighting more towards hands weaker than a flush.
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05-28-2020 , 11:52 AM
Is there merit to 3 betting the flop? His c/r range is maybe FDs, OESDs, Jx, sets, on this wet board, with many scare cards to come. I feel like we have a good amount of fold equity with a 3 bet to 18 BB.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gezuz
Is there merit to 3 betting the flop? His c/r range is maybe FDs, OESDs, Jx, sets, on this wet board, with many scare cards to come. I feel like we have a good amount of fold equity with a 3 bet to 18 BB.
But why we want to make him fold OESDs and FDs? He has weaker fds too. And when this kind of run out happens he is going to loose a lot money with straight vs flush. Jx might fold but sets are going to jam flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gendibal29
I'd have raised the turn. AP, I just call - most of his flushes are higher than yours
Why would you raise turn? In my opinion dynamics of the hand gets really weird and we are mostly face-up. That play is so weird that its never going to be balanced and he can happily fold basically almost all worse hands.
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05-28-2020 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeccross
Shove. With those bet sizes I'm weighting more towards hands weaker than a flush.
Yeah, acutally this is exactly what I was thinking. And by shoving here our play looks quite strange and he might do some wide calling with sets, straights and ofc weaker fds (as well stronger ones).

He called with Ah4h.

Thinking it after I probably lean more towards calling it. But in the other hand, when the day comes when cards are dealt other way around I expect to win my money back
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
But why we want to make him fold OESDs and FDs? He has weaker fds too. And when this kind of run out happens he is going to loose a lot money with straight vs flush. Jx might fold but sets are going to jam flop.
Because we win the pot. That's fine with second pair. That's not the reason for not 3 betting, it's that we don't like getting shoved on. That said, he shouldn't have that many sets here, as he likely 3 bets JJ and there's only 1 combo of 99 left.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
But why we want to make him fold OESDs and FDs? He has weaker fds too. And when this kind of run out happens he is going to loose a lot money with straight vs flush. Jx might fold but sets are going to jam flop.



Why would you raise turn? In my opinion dynamics of the hand gets really weird and we are mostly face-up. That play is so weird that its never going to be balanced and he can happily fold basically almost all worse hands.
I don't see why the play is weird (it's rather the other way around. When you're very likely to have the best hand you should bet by default)

If he folds a lot, you deny equity against sets and AhX and KhX hands. I think he still would call lots of worse hands. Eventually, against most NL10 regs, if he reraises you know you're beaten.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rared
Yeah, acutally this is exactly what I was thinking. And by shoving here our play looks quite strange and he might do some wide calling with sets, straights and ofc weaker fds (as well stronger ones).

He called with Ah4h.

Thinking it after I probably lean more towards calling it. But in the other hand, when the day comes when cards are dealt other way around I expect to win my money back
I think it's important to recognize that on this board (and with the 9h in your hand) he doesn't have lots of weaker flushes (87 and maybe T8)
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gendibal29
I think it's important to recognize that on this board (and with the 9h in your hand) he doesn't have lots of weaker flushes (87 and maybe T8)
He doesn't just have flushes, and we underepped our hand somewhat by not raising the turn. His sizing is also fishy, so I'm happy assuming he's less likely to fold big hands that are obv never good v a shove, like straights.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeccross
Shove. With those bet sizes I'm weighting more towards hands weaker than a flush.
Do you mean small bets? Both the flush and straight draw completed. When that happens, the bettor has a lot of made hands and few draws left, which means smaller bet sizes.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bailashtoreth
Do you mean small bets? Both the flush and straight draw completed. When that happens, the bettor has a lot of made hands and few draws left, which means smaller bet sizes.
Lol. If he's playing optimally. He bets less on the turn than the flop, thats fishy looking to me.
River decision Quote
05-28-2020 , 03:40 PM
Aren't we cool with just putting stacks in on the flop here? I think as long as we can get some high equity hands to fold when we raise, we should be just piling as hard as possible.
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05-28-2020 , 04:57 PM
Anyone checking the flop? That would be my go to play. I would shove the river AP.
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05-28-2020 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by emitnulB
Aren't we cool with just putting stacks in on the flop here? I think as long as we can get some high equity hands to fold when we raise, we should be just piling as hard as possible.
Do you ever slowplay a flush draw here then? It's not getting much better than this combo to do so. You are almost always behind when called and what's worse you make him fold some dominated draws. Not very relevant but also increasing variance with these coinflipis for stacks spots.

As for OP. Villains stats are quite important here especially preflop (3betting, defending frequencies). He looks a reg to me, so as played i call. I haven't seen any river raise bluffs below 50NL apart from occasional fish bs. So these regs usually snap fold a straight here. Hell i might not even call 8h7h against this pool facing a jam otr. Against fish it's a fist pump jam though.

I really don't like the flop bet and sizing. A rather dynamic board with many bad runouts rangewise, but our particular hand has sdv and do not need much protection. I also fold pre pretty much always.
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05-28-2020 , 07:15 PM
Villains Line is pretty much how a solver would play it. So no real Information here. But it is much easier to play a line like a solver than to actually come up with all the combos. I doubt he finds all the bluffs on the flop he should have and to be honest, against the x/r ranges that were listed in the thread this is not a river jam. So since people in general x/r much less often than they should i would probably call river.
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