6-Max 50 NL Online
Hero has 73.68 UTG
Villain has 160.12 on the Button (No HUD allowed so no stats)

I would describe Villain as a nitty reg, after playing for an hour I noticed they had only entered 6 pots. Villains stack had gone up from 125 or so, as they stacked off with the nuts against a short stacker. In the only pot we were heads up, Villain did not bluff a turned nut flush draw when the flop went check check and did not bluff ace high on the river after I checked back the turn.


Hero opens to 1.25 with two black aces. It folds to Villain who calls and the blinds fold.

Flop [3.75] 8 6 2
Hero bets 1.85. Villain raises to 10. Hero???

Pretty ugly spot but just gotta call. Your reads are good but nothing definitive enough yet to start folding near the top of your range. If you're not sure you should slightly overfold but still need to have some defends to not be exploitable.

Get pokertracker, if villain is a huge nit like you say then yes you can exploit fold here a lot

You don't have anywhere near enough of a read on villain here to lay down your hand.

So how do you proceed after the flop call? Obv the biggest concern is that with two more bets the stacks are going in. Do we check/call as long as the flush doesn’t complete?

Re-evaluate the turn.

What range do you think Villian has?
How exploitable do you think you are folding here with AA?

I certainly agree that folding here is exploitable, but I decided to do so for a few reasons:

1. I do not think villain is overbetting the pot with a flop raise with a one pair hand, especially since he flatted on the button pre which makes hands like kings and queens less likely.

2. I believe villain has all nine combos of sets in his range and that they would go for max value here.

3. I am not getting a great price. Villain bet 10 into 5.6, which creates a minimum defense frequency of 47.7%. I plan to continue with diamond draws, the six combos of sets I have, AA-JJ with a diamond, the combo draws of T9 and T9, and the pair plus flush draw combos of 98 and 87. I agree that folding black aces here is exploitable, however I would argue that meeting MDF is suboptimal on this board against the majority of 50NL players and especially against tighter ones like Villain.

4. Villain and I are about 150 BB effective and getting stacks in just stinks against a range of sets and 10 flush draw combos. I think this is a fairly optimistic range, and aces are only 37%.

I did watch villain at the table for about 90 hands before this one, but I certainly agree that I don't have a definitive read on him. After looking at this spot off table I think I could flip a coin on calling or folding, I see this as a very borderline spot. I wish pokertracker was allowed so I could use a HUD but the site does not allow it.

When you c-bet half pot on that board and get raised 5X folding is fine. If that vil is spewy you will figure it out pretty soon.

If I was villain, I would have a random 2-pair and want the hand to be over or to get stacks in. A set is not usually overbet like that, but possible.

I hate to fold and look weak, but I would fold there against the normal population online micro stakes.

Going for max value? The raise looks more like a raise that wants you to fold AK,AQ type hands than going for max-value. Villian is playing against your range, which doesn't connect well with this board at all, and if you're folding AA here then he is getting 0 value out of this raise - ever.

We're making an assumption here about what V is likely to have in a flatting range with no information on him... which is dangerous. I think you can considerably widen his range more than sets or FDs
Random 2pr is more likely than a set.
99-JJ for a nitty player is also likely.
FD is likely.
With no information on the V it's possible he has JT with diamond, 97s, 75s or has A9 type hands.
It's for this reason I call flop and evaluate turn and I think if you're going to lay down AA vs V in this spot with little to no information on them, you're either playing in the nittiest game alive and should find a better spot, or you're getting exploited for folding too much by aggressive players. Sometimes it's OK to get stacked.

I don't think you can find a fold on this flop - any diamond on the turn and it makes it much easier IMO.

It's weird to me to doubt that we can call villain a passive nit based on history but then read so much into his bet sizing.

Explo fold seems fine to me especially when he bombs like that.

You should fold.

Good job.

How do you look weak? We should have a b/f range here and he doesn't know we have AA.

We don't have any history that suggests the V is a nit. We have one hand where he didn't bluff the turn with a nut FD. Entirely possible that V thought he might realise his equity better in that hand by letting another card peel and checked the river because he had SDV. We can't make any justifications based on that.

When we evaluate his bet-sizing, it's information pertinent to that hand that's relevant to the mathematics of actually making a call. Anyone with half a poker brain knows that if you bomb the flop with a huge raise like that, most hands are going to fold. Given that we don't have enough information on the V to make an educated decision, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that, given my range doesn't connect very well with that board at all, that V wants me to fold as he isn't giving me any pot odds to continue in the hand.

First one is about the information on the player. 2nd is about the math.

Notice I said likely, not that V would only do it with XX.

FWIW, If V actually is a scared nit, then I definitely would add KK-QQ into his range here. Calling button and making sure no A hits the flop is something these type of players do regularly.

Bombing the flop that has a FD when they're scared of you catching up is also a line they'd take.

I just think his range is a lot wider than you're giving V credit for in this spot.

You are absolutely correct, thank you for reminding me isolated.

Call. O well he has two pair.

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Next time ill fold.

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