Want to sanity check this one. PokerSnowie disagrees with just about everything I do here.
It wants me to fold to HJ's flop raise.
It wants me to the turn (1/4 pot)
It wants me to fold to HJ's turn bet
It wants me to fold to HJ's River shove (pretty close to indifference here, though)
This feels really nitty.
Stats on HJ:
Hands: 14
VPIP: 57%
PR: 29%
I'd seen them play pretty aggressively/barrel a bunch in our opening few hands (just about every hand they saw the flop as far as I could tell). Obviously PS doesn't know about this extra info, but even without it PS seems very nitty here.
Wow Villain is a moron obviously. Snowie is probably looking at that flop and thinking that there aren’t any bluffs so a raising range must look like AQ, 44. A7 should never be raising flop here as it crushes your range. Snowie is folding to continued aggression as it can’t find any bluffs I think. I love Snowie but you have to be careful when using it and playing micros - clearly our opponents aren’t balanced or even good at poker, so Snowies advice won’t be relevant.
I like the small flop cbet, either that or check. I think you can comfortably fold the turn here. There’s just not many bluffs and he shouldn’t be raising you flop bet as a bluff very often at all, his line is incredibly strong.