PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $59.20
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 17.90, 3Bet Preflop: 11.86, Hands: 168)
MP: $34.40 (VPIP: 35.14, PFR: 25.68, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 228)
CO: $25.46 (VPIP: 26.92, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 108)
BTN: $11.61 (VPIP: 53.85, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 14)
SB: $28.11 (VPIP: 23.25, PFR: 16.87, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 494)

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K J

UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) 3 7 8
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks

Turn: ($2.35, 3 players) 7
Hero bets $1.48, fold, MP calls $1.48

River: ($5.31, 2 players) 4
Hero bets $3.20, MP raises to $11.69, fold,

I don't really know where to start. So... My question. Should I shove? I dare I would, if I get 10 more secs in banktime to get through it. Why? Lemme explain. Villain. I stole him about 3 stacks this session, had him on 3 tables. You got his stats, so I won't get into that (I'll just add he has 15% ft3bet)
I had him seriously tilted, as all my x/raises, barrels, x/c lines hit him just perfectly. So he started to get fancy, which well... skyrocketed my winrate.

Spot itself, from BB I can rep almost everything on turn, so I decided to bet, with intention to barrel all rivers, as I'm gonna get called by some straight draws, AcXx, pockets, and many of these hands are gonna fold on whole spectrum of rivers. River totally blanked and I did what I planned, and got this raise. Which I think Is AcXx or T9. I block flushes, and I think he would fire them at turn. + this size, crying foooold me pleaseeeee

I'm pretty convinced I should have shoved it here, and I keep blaming myself I didn't. Ease my pain if you think it would be spazz

With a VPIP that high he could have a lot of AcXx hands as you said that flats from MP vs UTG, I think your theory about 3bet shoving river could be right.

But he's representing a full house, not a flush. I think the conventional rationale is that he should bet the flop when checked to with 33/77/88, to prevent a club from rolling off.

But when I think about it more, he can trap this flop, especially when UTG has signaled he's missed the flop and is giving up with high card hands. Let UTG catch TPTK on a K/Q/A turn. The board can't four straight. Scare cards can hit the turn and kill his action, but he's probably not winning a big pot if he bets the flop.

And you mentioned he has fancy play syndrome. So I wouldn't discount full houses here. And bluff-raising this river would be pretty balsy with just the Ac when you could have full houses/flushes yourself.

I think rebluffing river is just not necessary here and maybe verges into fancy play syndrome itself. Someone with his stats will just hemorrhage buy ins in other spots.

I can`t really think of many strong hands MP could have but a river jam after getting raised still seems unnecessary to me. You should not start playing fancy just because V is doing so.

not sure about that turn lead into 2 ppl, one of them being tilted
mby you lead some tp, 7x and small flushes for 1/3 for value/protection, but not to that sizing.

fold pre

/thread

Yeh, should have, I know. But still, as played?

And @Roger

Even if he doesn't lead flop with all these hands you mentioned, on a club pairing board he has obvious valueraise, as I'm not giving up any flush at this point. He has 6 sets, one quad, 2x 78 and ten flushes. 19 combos. Which I seriously doubt he plays this way, any of these combos.


I risk 28$ to win ~20$, so I need ~58% FE, meaning i have to fold him off ~28 combos to cover rake and be b/e. Let's say he 3bets AKo, we got 4x T9, 4x J9, ~12 AcXx from really rational hands, but I think he might have floated the turn even with things like AxQc or KxQc. He did that before, and after my river trap check spewed psb with Q high float.

Of course it would be so cool to find better spots, shove only boats here and think this way, but aren't you forgetting, that it's all about choosing the most EV line?

I think you're focusing on that river too much and you're missing the main points
calling pre is bad oop vs 2 strong ranges that are primarily composed of better broadways
your range does not need to lead turn for value, boats, nut flushes and AcX are happy checking
you don't need to have any bluffs, esp when mp is gunning for you
while leading for thin value and protection is understandable with marginal made hands, you should not bet so big ott with any part of your range

There is probably very little probing done on this turn in theory, probs less than 20%. Only MP is capped so dont think we wanna start probingrandom club hands.
If you do lead, think much smaller sizing is better, use bigger (overbets?) with polarised but dont forget to add some craises in there too.

Turn is not great ap, but river is by far the worst.

Preflop is another story, but leaking money in spots like this postflop is another. And present, as you see

@Chips Thanks, I see now what the problem was. I thought that my BB range nicely hitting this board + capped OR is enough to try to take this pot down. I'll go through this spot from very beggining. Thanks for help ^^