Overpair with open end straight draw facing turn jam - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Overpair with open end straight draw facing turn jam

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07-13-2020 , 02:18 PM

Luke121

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 114

PokerStars - $0.10 Ante $0.01 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 237 BB
SB: 89.6 BB
BB: 46.4 BB
UTG: 108.3 BB
MP: 120 BB
Hero (CO): 249.7 BB

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has T

fold, MP raises to 4.1 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 7.9 BB

Flop: (26.1 BB, 2 players) 3

MP checks, Hero bets 12.5 BB, MP raises to 37 BB, Hero calls 24.5 BB

Turn: (100.1 BB, 2 players) 9

MP bets 70.9 BB and is all-in, ????

We need 29% equity to call, we have 21.5% equity against sets.

Does he have enough bluffs/flush draws compared to sets, 2 pairs and straights to make this a call?

No reads on opponent but it was an instajam, for what its worth

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07-13-2020 , 02:26 PM

Crab Cakes

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 596

You’re basically getting odds to call vs 2 pair which makes me wanna close my eyes and click call. The question is do you think he ever has JJ/QQ, If not then this is our best op to call and we kinda have to.

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07-13-2020 , 02:42 PM

Luke121

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 114

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crab Cakes

Id say JJ yes, QQ maybe is 50/50 between 4 bet and flat at these stakes

Theres 3 combos of 78 suited, 2 combos of 79 suited and I would expect both to fold at some frequency to the 3 bet, so sets are more likely. T9 of spades is also a possibility but the only combo of T9 suited

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07-13-2020 , 03:07 PM

Luke121

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 114

Id like to hear your guys opinion in what pot odds you would need to call, ie if you would call this would you also call needing 32%, 35% etc

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07-13-2020 , 03:20 PM

FoldOnce

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 592

Decide what you're doing with the hand on the flop. That's far too big of a raise to call without a big list of cards you are going to stack on. Either fold flop, call with intent of calling again on great cards, or jam flop. Those are really the only lines that make sense. When he's already put 40% of his stack in the middle, there's no reason to think the rest isn't going in a high % of the time. There's no room to float and play poker here.

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07-13-2020 , 03:53 PM

Luke121

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 114

Quote:

Originally Posted by FoldOnce

Thats a good point, I didnt think through the turn implications when calling the flop raise which is a mistake

I dont think its completely true that we can't call the flop raise without knowing we call a turn jam. On a wet board like that the raise is often a draw which checks the turn to you. When we 3 bet pre and call that flop bet I think our hand is pretty face up as an overpair, so draws know they have limited fold equity

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