Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRadioActiv3
As for W$SD, does this stat mean I should just get to the river less and let go way more holdings before the river and on the river? Does it mean I call down too much or something? (I am not really sure how it should be fixed)
A low number (less than 50% for win money at showdown) can be caused by a variety of things, and it's hard to find the leak just from a couple of numbers alone.
Examples:
* You make too many bad bluffs on the river, and they get snapped off.
* You value bet too thinly on the river, and don't win >50% of the time when you're called.
* You call river bets with the worst hand too often, such that you don't break even based on the pot odds. (This one can be checked out by looking at the 'river call efficiency' stat. It's unlikely that your number for RCE is <1, unless you're a massive station. If your RCE is indeed <1, you need to get a bigger FOLD button.)
Some of the above leaks are caused by bad play on the previous streets. If you can imagine a super-station that check-calls the flop and turn with a gutshot, and then calls again when he makes 2nd pair on the river, he would have a low W$SD, as he's a payoff wizard that frequently gets taken to Valuetown. He should often have check-raised or x-folded flop/turn, and definitely folded river.
Someone that triple-barrels too often ends up over-bluffing on the river, and he'll have a bad W$SD too. It will be especially true if he's too loose pre-flop, as he'll naturally have a weaker range than average on every street. Unlike the passive station, he'll be making money with his successful bluffs on the previous streets. (See the thing about redline below).
Does your tracker have a graph with redline and blueline? W$SD is represented by the blueline. For most winning players, it goes up constantly, because the bulk of their money comes from value-betting and getting called by worse, and by making appropriate folds when their hands won't win on the river. The redline (won without showdown) usually goes down, unless you are one of the aforementioned stations or aggrotards who hates folding, and that tries to win more than his fair share of pots.
It's still possible to have a positive blueline even with a W$SD of slightly <50. You just have to make sure you win the
big pots with your value-bets, and don't lose stacks with your bluffs and hero-calls. You kind of have to win the
majority of your showdowns in the long run though.
Some nits (like me) will have monstrous bluelines and high W$SD numbers, because they have such strong ranges, and always seem to have the nuts on the river, but nits also fold a lot (they only play the nuts) and don't bluff very much, so can have terrible redlines. The "optimal" player is the happy medium that gets plenty of value, makes the right amount of hero-calls, but also gets enough bluffs through to stop his redline plummeting.
I can't explain why your HUD is giving an apparently incorrect donkbet stat, but it might be something to do with probes, or leading out in limped pots. I see quite a few multi-tablings regs (who I think are winning) that seem to donk for value quite a lot though. Overall, however, there is a strong correlation between high donking frequencies and big loss-rates. Some fish have a strategy of donking every board they hit, and check-folding all the ones they miss. It's a terrible strat, obviously, since they don't give the PFR a chance to c-bet with air. You need a really good reason to donk into the pre-flop raiser, and balancing is quite hard too.
Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 02-14-2019 at 06:56 PM.