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uNL Stats Checkup Thread uNL Stats Checkup Thread

01-28-2019 , 02:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewl_cph
Order should be reversed? Gotcha.
They are completely mixed up in the screengrab. e.g. MP in between CO and BTN. :/
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02-08-2019 , 12:33 PM
Here is some grist for the mill of the "whose variance is bigger, LAG or nit?" debate:

Imagine a player who folds everything. Everyone else knows this, so our hero's big blind is always raised, and hero folds. It's a nine-handed game.

Hero loses 1.5 bb every nine hands, for a mean loss rate of -1/6 bb/hand.

What is hero's variance?

The deviation from hero's mean is -5/6 in the big blind, -2/6 in the small blind, and +1/6 in the seven other positions. The squared sum is 25/36 + 4/36 + 7*(1/36) = 36/36 = 1, so the mean square deviation, i.e. the variance is (36/36)/9 = 0.111 bb^2/hand. 11.11 bb^/100, or (at 30 hands/hour) 33.33 bb^2/hour.

By comparison, my own variance at 2-3-5 NLHE is 5,081 bb^2/hr.

Now imagine that our hero loosens up a bit, so that they play pocket aces (and only pocket aces). This is going to raise our hero's win rate, and it is going to dramatically raise their variance, but I doubt it is going to raise it a hundred-fold.

I think there is little doubt that adding more hands to our hero's range will continue to increase their variance.

It seems quite likely to me that a player who plays a nitty preflop range is going to have a lower variance than a winning player who plays a wider range.
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02-08-2019 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xCashGamex
There's a weird quirk of variance (I hope it's that, and not your strategy) in that you have a higher VPIP in EP than MP in this sample.
Other than that, you've got the kind of stats that can beat the other nits (and the few fish) at 5NLz, but you might have some trouble if and when you move up, partly because you'll face more steals (you're folding a lot in the BB) and won't be able to get away with playing fit-or-fold, with such a high AF number.
It's also a bit peculiar that your UTG c-bet frequency is higher than what you have for BTN. This makes me inclined to think your flop betting range is too heavily weighted towards value, and your checking range is very weak. i.e. I think you're one of the players that just thinks "I have a good hand, I will bet-bet-bet" or "I have bad hand, I check-fold". While playing a simple strat like that works at 2NL/5NL, there are proabably several ways that your opponents can exploit you. Your actual HUD stats probably look a bit unbalanced. It's not a problem right now, but you'll probably have to alter a few things when you move up. Nice results so far though!
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02-08-2019 , 01:39 PM
@Alan, Did you mean to post that in this stats thread?

FWIW, someone that folds every hand will still win occasionally, as walks are surprisingly common (at least in Zoom games), but you said everyone always steals that guy's blinds, so it's academic. I don't think such a player has ANY variance. There is no fluctuation in the amount he'll win/lose over 100 hands. He just loses 11.11bb/100 whenever you take a 100 hand sample. (i.e. if you ask him how much he lost in the first 100 hands on Monday, it will be 11bb, and if you ask him about the first 100 hands on Tuesday, it's also 11bb. There's no variation).
A real player will typically be plus or minus 70bb above or below their winrate over the course of 100 hands. i.e. If you have a winrate of 5bb/100 and a standard deviation of 70bb/100, then in 95% of 100 hand samples, you'll have a stacksize that is +5bb give or take 70bb from the starting point. i.e. You'll have a profit or loss in the region of -65bb to +75bb.
One sure way to increase variance is to play more hands (and/or play deep, and/or play PLO and take a lot of flips), because then your stacksize (aka bankroll) is literally given more chances to fluctuate, both up and down. Playing like a nit reduces variance. Folding every single hand reduces it to zero.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 02-08-2019 at 01:45 PM.
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02-09-2019 , 12:29 AM
Thanks @Arty
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02-09-2019 , 01:44 AM
stats of my last 50k hands

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02-09-2019 , 05:10 PM
I don't get the chance to say this very often, but I think you should tighten up a bit on the button. Obviously stealing is generally very profitable, but I don't think you should have a VPIP on the BTN over much over 30% in the long run. Your high VPIP there is causing your BTN winrate to be significantly lower than you've got for EP-CO. Variance is obviously a factor, but something in your strategy isn't working too well. (Button is supposed to be the most profitable position). Maybe you're overplaying some hands when your lightest steals get called.
Is it possible in PT to add/change some of the stats that are listed? I'd like to see your UOPFR (aka Raise First In) for every position. I'd also prefer to see the stat for "2-bet pre/fold to 3-bet" instead of overall 'call 3-bet'.

Other than your overall looseness pre-flop (which is mainly due to the overly high VPIP on BTN), I don't see anything really wrong with your numbers. Your other leaks are probably hidden in the post-flop stats. I see you have a high WTSD (like I do), but what's your river-call efficiency and W$atSD?
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02-10-2019 , 12:44 AM


Thanks

Last edited by Nachtwerk; 02-10-2019 at 12:50 AM.
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02-10-2019 , 12:52 AM
Definitely must have huge leaks, still struggling at NL2 but I think I just don't play consequently the same game. I light be switching between to passive and to agressive and then somehow and up with average stats. Accept for being to loose apparently.
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02-11-2019 , 08:34 PM
Wow. Opening 53.6% of BTNs is wild. A few years ago that might have worked really well (and in some player pools it probably still does, as long as you slow down when called).
Your '2b/fold to 3b' numbers are actually OK, although you might want to fold a smidgeon more. Just by reducing your RFI ranges in CO and BTN, the post-flop play will be a little bit easier (and more profitable) anyway, as you won't be seeing the flop with so much junk.
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02-13-2019 , 08:12 AM
50+% ATS on the BTN is more than fine. It is the best matchup for hero unless you cannot play the hands postflop.
But if I look in my DB, among the top25 winners, 23 have a BTN Steal% of 45% or more, 20 of 50% or more.

This is your bread and butter on Zoom.
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02-13-2019 , 04:49 PM
Hello here played around 24k here just wanted to see what people would say about my stats, am I trash and running hot? Or am I a permanently winning player at the two lowest stakes.

https://imgur.com/a/XEL7AkM

https://imgur.com/a/mC7Asmq
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02-13-2019 , 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ILMCS
50+% ATS on the BTN is more than fine. It is the best matchup for hero unless you cannot play the hands postflop.
But if I look in my DB, among the top25 winners, 23 have a BTN Steal% of 45% or more, 20 of 50% or more.

This is your bread and butter on Zoom.
Considering that I'm winning less on BU than CO, I seem to not be able to play all the crap I open .
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02-13-2019 , 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRadioActiv3
Hello here played around 24k here just wanted to see what people would say about my stats, am I trash and running hot? Or am I a permanently winning player at the two lowest stakes.
https://imgur.com/a/XEL7AkM
https://imgur.com/a/mC7Asmq
When I saw the overall VPIP, I thought "This is gonna be a horror show", but you played quite a lot of 4-handed and 5-handed, so it's higher than what we usually see in this thread. Based on the UOPFR (aka RFI) numbers, you're actually solid.
I can't see anything that stands out as an obvious leak. Your donkbet frequency seems high at 19%, but it might be appropriate to donk quite a bit in your player pool. I hardly ever donk (3% or something), but I might be missing out on some profitable spots.
Your W$SD is only 50%, which is a little worrying. You can probably make more money in the micros with your blueline winnings. I can't isolate a particular stat that you can "fix" to address that (you might need to fold post-flop a little more often), but you might want to pay attention to it (W$SD) and make sure it doesn't drop below 50.
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02-14-2019 , 02:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
When I saw the overall VPIP, I thought "This is gonna be a horror show", but you played quite a lot of 4-handed and 5-handed, so it's higher than what we usually see in this thread. Based on the UOPFR (aka RFI) numbers, you're actually solid.
I can't see anything that stands out as an obvious leak. Your donkbet frequency seems high at 19%, but it might be appropriate to donk quite a bit in your player pool. I hardly ever donk (3% or something), but I might be missing out on some profitable spots.
Your W$SD is only 50%, which is a little worrying. You can probably make more money in the micros with your blueline winnings. I can't isolate a particular stat that you can "fix" to address that (you might need to fold post-flop a little more often), but you might want to pay attention to it (W$SD) and make sure it doesn't drop below 50.
Phew almost gave me a heart attack there with the first sentence. Thanks for the check up. As for W$SD, does this stat mean I should just get to the river less and let go way more holdings before the river and on the river? Does it mean I call down too much or something? (I am not really sure how it should be fixed) Also... what does it really mean to donk bet I don't really get it, what bet does the hud register as a "donk bet"? I actually had a thread just to ask that but didin't really understand it anyways. I mean I kinda understand it but not to the full extent
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02-14-2019 , 02:16 PM
Betting into the preflop raiser out of position on the flop.
Villain's BTN, you're BB.
Villain raises preflop, you call.
Board is X X X, it's your turn to act; if you bet it is a donk bet, if you check and villain bet he made a continuation bet.
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02-14-2019 , 02:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iblis
Betting into the preflop raiser out of position on the flop.
Villain's BTN, you're BB.
Villain raises preflop, you call.
Board is X X X, it's your turn to act; if you bet it is a donk bet, if you check and villain bet he made a continuation bet.
I never lead here why whould I? It would be so dumb. It gets so complicated then because you have to balance the leads out and yada yada yada
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02-14-2019 , 05:07 PM
Mmm, maybe your hud registers probe bets as donk bets then.
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02-14-2019 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxRadioActiv3
As for W$SD, does this stat mean I should just get to the river less and let go way more holdings before the river and on the river? Does it mean I call down too much or something? (I am not really sure how it should be fixed)
A low number (less than 50% for win money at showdown) can be caused by a variety of things, and it's hard to find the leak just from a couple of numbers alone.
Examples:
* You make too many bad bluffs on the river, and they get snapped off.
* You value bet too thinly on the river, and don't win >50% of the time when you're called.
* You call river bets with the worst hand too often, such that you don't break even based on the pot odds. (This one can be checked out by looking at the 'river call efficiency' stat. It's unlikely that your number for RCE is <1, unless you're a massive station. If your RCE is indeed <1, you need to get a bigger FOLD button.)

Some of the above leaks are caused by bad play on the previous streets. If you can imagine a super-station that check-calls the flop and turn with a gutshot, and then calls again when he makes 2nd pair on the river, he would have a low W$SD, as he's a payoff wizard that frequently gets taken to Valuetown. He should often have check-raised or x-folded flop/turn, and definitely folded river.
Someone that triple-barrels too often ends up over-bluffing on the river, and he'll have a bad W$SD too. It will be especially true if he's too loose pre-flop, as he'll naturally have a weaker range than average on every street. Unlike the passive station, he'll be making money with his successful bluffs on the previous streets. (See the thing about redline below).

Does your tracker have a graph with redline and blueline? W$SD is represented by the blueline. For most winning players, it goes up constantly, because the bulk of their money comes from value-betting and getting called by worse, and by making appropriate folds when their hands won't win on the river. The redline (won without showdown) usually goes down, unless you are one of the aforementioned stations or aggrotards who hates folding, and that tries to win more than his fair share of pots.

It's still possible to have a positive blueline even with a W$SD of slightly <50. You just have to make sure you win the big pots with your value-bets, and don't lose stacks with your bluffs and hero-calls. You kind of have to win the majority of your showdowns in the long run though.
Some nits (like me) will have monstrous bluelines and high W$SD numbers, because they have such strong ranges, and always seem to have the nuts on the river, but nits also fold a lot (they only play the nuts) and don't bluff very much, so can have terrible redlines. The "optimal" player is the happy medium that gets plenty of value, makes the right amount of hero-calls, but also gets enough bluffs through to stop his redline plummeting.

I can't explain why your HUD is giving an apparently incorrect donkbet stat, but it might be something to do with probes, or leading out in limped pots. I see quite a few multi-tablings regs (who I think are winning) that seem to donk for value quite a lot though. Overall, however, there is a strong correlation between high donking frequencies and big loss-rates. Some fish have a strategy of donking every board they hit, and check-folding all the ones they miss. It's a terrible strat, obviously, since they don't give the PFR a chance to c-bet with air. You need a really good reason to donk into the pre-flop raiser, and balancing is quite hard too.

Last edited by ArtyMcFly; 02-14-2019 at 06:56 PM.
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02-17-2019 , 06:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
I don't get the chance to say this very often, but I think you should tighten up a bit on the button. Obviously stealing is generally very profitable, but I don't think you should have a VPIP on the BTN over much over 30% in the long run. Your high VPIP there is causing your BTN winrate to be significantly lower than you've got for EP-CO. Variance is obviously a factor, but something in your strategy isn't working too well. (Button is supposed to be the most profitable position). Maybe you're overplaying some hands when your lightest steals get called.
Is it possible in PT to add/change some of the stats that are listed? I'd like to see your UOPFR (aka Raise First In) for every position. I'd also prefer to see the stat for "2-bet pre/fold to 3-bet" instead of overall 'call 3-bet'.

Other than your overall looseness pre-flop (which is mainly due to the overly high VPIP on BTN), I don't see anything really wrong with your numbers. Your other leaks are probably hidden in the post-flop stats. I see you have a high WTSD (like I do), but what's your river-call efficiency and W$atSD?
You left me wondering why you asked for the RFI stats. I understand the definitions and difference between both but I'm not sure what extra information it gives you ?

Why does it seem that PFR is more common if RFI provides more specific clear info on opening raises ?
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02-18-2019 , 04:17 PM
The RFI stat didn't exist when trackers first came out, and PFR seemed to be "good enough" to indicate how aggressive someone was pre-flop. (Aside: 10 years ago if someone said they were playing 15/9/3, the last number meant their post-flop aggression factor, not 3-bet, because 3-bets were nearly always QQ+/AK, so you didn't need a stat for 3-bet).

I like looking at RFI stats in this thread, because it gives a much better picture of opening ranges (and then I can see if they are calling or folding to 3-bets too often, given their loose/tight opening range). RFI is particularly useful when someone plays some of their volume with fewer than 6 players at the table, as the VPIP/PFR numbers can get quite skewed by playing short-handed.
In addition, you can have two players with the same VPIP, but one of them might be tight in EP, but very loose on the button, or tight everywhere except in the BB. RFI figures reveal where there might be an imbalance or a leak.
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02-21-2019 , 11:49 PM
My stats: https://imgur.com/a/PRrmq1R

I'm wondering specifically about My won at showdown %, it is 61. Is that indicative of a leak? Seems really high. Yeah, I know my flop cbet is really low but it's been working ok for me. I've actually been working on getting it up. It was 37 about 2 weeks ago. I know my check raise is super low too I need to work on that

my WTSD which is not featured above is 28

my flop cbet used to be much higher, but between a mix of lowering my bluffs against stations and strengthening my check range against really aggro fish it got really low

my win rate over my last 53.6k hands is 5.05 ev bb/100 (50% 2nl, 50% 5nl)

Last edited by kvnd; 02-22-2019 at 12:02 AM.
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02-23-2019 , 07:04 PM
https://imgur.com/a/C1HFnXN

Anonymous 5NLz. Hoping to get feedback on stats, suggestions for plugging any possible leaks. Any other filters/stats that would be useful to looks at? Considering moving up to 25NLz once bankroll allows. Thanks!
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02-24-2019 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kvnd
I'm wondering specifically about My won at showdown %, it is 61.
my WTSD which is not featured above is 28
my flop cbet used to be much higher
Since you have a decent EV winrate, none of these things are problems at the moment. Above 5NL, you'll likely have to get more aggro and eke out some more thin value on the river, but you can play quite a passive style and beat the nanostakes with a sick blue line. Your HUD numbers are very similar to mine, although I'm even more of an outlier, as I see more showdowns than most fish.
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