Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Very nice my man! How did you figure out your standard deviation?
keep a spreadsheet for each session. Record hours played, won/loss. Calculate average win per hour, and count # of sessions.
Then for each line of the spreadsheet calculate the variance as:
(1/#sessions)*(current session W/L - (current hours * average w/L per hour))^2/current session hours
Then add up all of those numbers and take the square root.
So a single line would look like this assuming you have 20 sessions of play:
say you played 4 hours, you won $350, and your average win rate is $25/hr then the variance for this session would be (1/20)*(350 - (4*25))^2/4 = 781.25 Then add up this 781.25 with the other 19 entries and take the square root of that number to get your standard deviation. Assume the stdev is $200. Then that means in 1 hour of play, there is a 68% chance your result will be $25 +/- $200, 95% it will be $25 +/- $400, and 99.7% it will be $25 +/- $600.