Considering how players tend to over value their hands at the micros, when I have the nut flush on a paired board, I'm expecting to get value from lower flushes, trips, 2p, etc. However, in the last week I've run my nut flush into a boat 3 times. Is this a sign that I need to be more cautious on paired boards or is this just negative variance? BTW, one player was sitting out, hence opening JKo UTG.

Global Poker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 221.25 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BTN: 143.5 BB
SB: 89 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
BB: 49.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 99 BB
MP: 53.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) 6 4 T
BB checks, Hero bets 6.25 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.25 BB, fold

Turn: (25 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (25 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 50 BB, BTN raises to 134.25 BB and is all-in, Hero

I don't play 4nl so I don't know if there is some additional insane crazy factor that makes it such that you can't lay down hands like this, but in my experience this is a fold vs. all but the craziest players. even very laggy fish don't really bluff this spot.

not sure about your betsize of 2x pot; I typically wouldn't bet that large. I think it isolates me against boats too frequently, which are still strongly represented in his range, and that there won't be very many Qc/Jc hands in his range OTR. QQ/JJ usu 3bet pre, QcJx doesn't flat pre, Qc9c/whatever bet turn, so basically AxQc/AxJc and that's it. that isn't very many combos to begin with, THEY might even 3bet pre, plus those hands might even fold vs. a 2x pot bet. if ranges are wider at 4nl then that analysis changes somewhat. maybe they flat hands like Qc9x otb and have a ton of trouble folding abs value. it's not insane to me that such a dynamic could exist as a default, but going into these games blind I would guess that 2x pot bet is too much. plenty of micro players can find folds with strong flushes in this spot imo.

I agree with Flimpy, though I'd only add that at 4NL someone could absolutely shove with a worse flush or even a random 6 in their hand... but you'd have to have good notes/read on them that they were playing that loosely. (Which if you had you wouldn't have posted this I'm sure.)

Villian's turn check says a lot to me. Does a weak made flush or trips check that turn?

Does a random Qc shove river, or just call... or raise smaller?

With time to step through it looks like a fold but I get why the nut flush is a hard lay down any time at 4nl.

I'm checking this flop and most likely x/f. Think it's really optimistic to expect to get a call from a worse flush, 2pair and trips with a 2xPSB.

don't bet this big on the river, you don't want to isolate yourself against Kc or better

fold to the raise as played, this should be one of your worst value hand

Wanna be checking flop at high freq
Not sure what is happening river but we should deffo be betting smaller and obv fold to shove


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Good flop bet.

Bet river smaller for value (16-20bb). 50bb (2x pot) will convince Qc and Jc to fold a certain percentage of the time, and walk us into being stacked against boats.

Fold PF (close), check flop (less close), way way smaller OTR (not even close)

Thanks gents. The joker had 64. And yes the guy had been playing like a maniac, I should have mentioned that. In fact I'd say I regularly get shoved on with lesser flushes or naked trips in this spot. The Global micro population is pretty insanely bad.

But since my goal is to get better and move up, I will have to learn to lay down the nut flush here.

always fold your worse value hand to a raise barring strong reads

I should get that tattoo'd on my hand. Good advice, thanks.

Pre open is kinda loose ...

Def checking the flop in multiway pot.
Bet way smaller OTR... ur hand isnt even near to be nutted.

In general you can fold 1 pair even over pairs quite early vs a raise and strength vs villains without info. On turns you can raise 2 pair and fold to 3bets with the confidence villains have sets and no bluffs without good reads. On rivers you can fold flushes and straits on paired boards with confidence villain has a full house when there raising for stacks. Most decisions should be pretty easy to make , and usually the hard decisions come about because we made an error at some point previous in the hand.

Flop play looks standard with your 2nd-best flush draw and overs. At these lowest limits, I could easily see a worse shove than what you have: Q or Jc are viable. Turn looks great, pot controlling when nothing improves and be willing to fold to a bet (depending on the situation). It's hard to say without any information on the opponent but I'd assume that he could have something like QcJh. The Ace river limits you to only one flush card which beats his. The boat is of course possible but is really checking and hoping you improve here?

This is the main point to take away from this hand imo. Long term, it’s not whether you can fold the nutflush to a boat on the river that makes you money. It’s realising that checking flop and turn and firing more normal river bet would have lost you less money, even if you called a river raise (assuming you don’t call a silly AI massive overshove!)

Lots of good points here.

Seems that everyone agrees that the river overbet is bad (I see why now), though there is some disagreement about the flop. My thinking was that with 2 overs and the NFD on a very wet, dynamic board, it was a good flop to cbet.

Sounds like a lot of you are checking though.

I agree with everything everyone has said...except for the river bet sizing. I think the overbet is fine. Jc and Qc are going to be inelastic with their calls, especially in a fishy population. I don't think we are trying to get value from a 6 on a 4 flush board and I think if V is bad enough to get to the river this way with a flush worse than Jc, they might have a hard time folding anyway.

I would puke fold vs the raise.

Would you check the flop or cbet?

Checking is probably better. We can see what BTN does AND what BB does if BTN bets.