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NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not

09-17-2018 , 03:29 PM
PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 186.2 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 19.68, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 194)
SB: 28.4 BB
BB: 102.4 BB (VPIP: 15.69, PFR: 12.25, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 211)
Hero (UTG): 101.4 BB
MP: 145 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
CO: 48.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T 9

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 7 3 6
BB checks, Hero bets 3.4 BB, BB calls 3.4 BB

Turn: (13.2 BB, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 8 BB, BB calls 8 BB

River: (29.2 BB, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero checks


Should we bet this one or he calls most of the time?
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-17-2018 , 03:37 PM
I'd bet around 70/80% on the flop. I like the bigger sizing on this board - BB will have a lot of 7x, 6x, SD's and FD's. We can barrell a lot of turns when we pick up equity or bluff when Q, K, A falls. Turn as played, fine. River - have to bet here - it's the perfect card for our range. I'd go around 70% here.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-17-2018 , 05:07 PM
I would bluff. You can put a lot of his hands in a very difficult spot. I think he is rarely folding a 7 or even a 6 on the turn, that combined with missed flush draws means that by the river you can probably blast him off a lot of hands. I think sizing on the river should be big 70/80%, I wouldn't hate an overbet on 5NLz they work stupidly well. Occasionally he has something like 2 pair but so much bricks and the turn and river hit your range so well.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-17-2018 , 07:05 PM
You can probably triple barrel with an overbet on the river with 77, 66, KK, AA, AK for value, and take the same line with all combos of 98s and T9s. If you don't have any 98s in your UTG range, then ten high is literally your worst possible holding, so I'd definitely be betting it.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 10:44 AM
I like betting the turned K big in these spots and I would do this for value as well, with the plan to tripple barrel spades, broadways (A,Q,J,) and when I make straights.

it's generally a good idea to barrel straight draws when you can rep front door flushes as well.

so pot turn, overbet river 1.5x
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 12:52 PM
nvm, I get it.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 02:55 PM
I like what the others are saying, bet, bet, bet...just hard to tell what's going on with flop/turn calls ...the A river would have been too juicy for me to not fire, and large
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 04:14 PM
Why not x flop?
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kontost
Why not x flop?
Doesn't our range include a lot of overpairs? Are we supposed to ch back AQ-AK here on this kind of board?
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 07:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelMyrash
Doesn't our range include a lot of overpairs? Are we supposed to ch back AQ-AK here on this kind of board?
You'd typically bet your overpairs for value, because they can get called by worse, and you'd bet your draws as semi-bluffs, because they can fold out better. You'd often check back AK/AQ because they do neither of the above. e.g. If you bet T9s, you can make KQo fold. When you have AK, you don't particularly want KQ to fold.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-18-2018 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArtyMcFly
You'd typically bet your overpairs for value, because they can get called by worse, and you'd bet your draws as semi-bluffs, because they can fold out better. You'd often check back AK/AQ because they do neither of the above. e.g. If you bet T9s, you can make KQo fold. When you have AK, you don't particularly want KQ to fold.
So say we had AsKh, with the back door equity is that more of a spot to cbet this particular board? Does having a spade in our hand here change our ch back? I know I cbet way too often it's a leak I'm trying to figure out, it's way too automatic and I'm trying to put together a ch back range that's more logical...thanks for the feedback!
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-19-2018 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeelMyrash
So say we had AsKh, with the back door equity is that more of a spot to cbet this particular board? Does having a spade in our hand here change our ch back? I know I cbet way too often it's a leak I'm trying to figure out, it's way too automatic and I'm trying to put together a ch back range that's more logical...thanks for the feedback!
Without looking at a solver I can't tell you exactly how to play the various combos of AK on this board. (I would probably check behind with all of them, because I tend to be more polarized and put my hands into obvious "value bet" or "bluff" buckets, but a solver's strategy is more nuanced/mixed).
Clearly AK with the As has more equity than AK without the backdoor, but ranges are very complex. Sometimes a solver will suggest betting with the backdoor because your hand has "value" vs the range that calls and it will be playable on many turns, and sometimes it will say to bet the combos without the backdoor for "protection", because you don't want to see a turn, and more of your EV comes from denying free equity.
Choosing whether to bet or check back partly depends on whether villain will check-raise if you c-bet. i.e. If you bet all combos of AK on this flop and got check-raised, you can continue with AsKx (although you're not loving it), but you'd hate to continue vs a check-raise with a red AK. But bet-folding red AK sucks, because it is considerably ahead of villain's check-raise bluffs.

A heuristic you can use when trying to decide whether to c-bet or not with unpaired hands is to ask "How would I feel if villain check-raised?" and compare it with how you feel about taking/giving a free card. If getting check-raised would make you sad (because you'd definitely have to fold, but there's a decent chance you'd be folding the best hand), and taking/giving a free card is less painful, do the latter.

I don't do a lot of c-betting on this 763tt board UTGvBB, because it's not a great flop for my range, but I'd rather bet-fold hands like KJ or JT than AK. KJ and JT can make villain fold some ace-highs, which is a good result for me (and they are easy to fold if villain raises). AK is crushing the ace highs in villain's check-folding range, and is put in a really horrible spot if villain raises, so it makes much less sense as a bet. If villain was going to check-CALL with ace high, then you could c-bet AK for value, but I don't think that's the case here. I would check back my weak made hands and the best ace highs (as they have some SDV/equity vs entire range), and bet my lower ranked hands as bluffs. Solvers might mix in some bets with AK with the As (or even without it), but the overall GTO strategy is way too complex for me to work it out. I think if you're auto-betting all your AK-type hands, you'd be c-betting way more than is theoretically optimally.
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote
09-19-2018 , 11:04 AM
Wow I love when lightbulbs go off, guess I just found my study material... appreciate your insight
NL5z - Missed fd, bet river or not Quote

      
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