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[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? [NL50] QQ on low board - overplay?

05-26-2020 , 08:07 PM
GG Poker - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 108.62 BB
UTG: 99.16 BB
Hero (MP): 122.4 BB
CO: 118.56 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 107.38 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 5 6 2
BB checks, Hero bets 6.64 BB, CO raises to 15 BB, fold, Hero raises to 35 BB, CO calls 20 BB

Turn: (79.5 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 84.4 BB and is all-in
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-26-2020 , 08:12 PM
In before everyone says x flop and that the sizing's poor.
I'm going to say it's an overplay. Your equity's not good vs a continuing range.
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-26-2020 , 08:19 PM
First for x flop. :P
Yeah it looks like solid spew all around, WTF is that 3bet, wtf is that turn shove.
Your line goes way over my head.
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-26-2020 , 08:34 PM
Without any reads on villain, I calculated his range as the following: 22, 55 - TT, A4d - AQd, KTd - KQd, QTd - QJd, JTd, 65d, and 76d. Against that range, we have 62.3% on the flop.

I honestly don't know whether the 4-bet is plus EV in this situation. I don't think we have much fold equity, we might be able to get a hand like 77 to fold, but I think all A high flush draws are continuing, and even the K high and Q high flush draws with two over cards might be continuing. I think maybe the right play would be to just call the flop 3-bet and see what happens on the turn. On the turn, I do not like the all-in. I would have probably checked the turn.
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-26-2020 , 08:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by .isolated
In before everyone says x flop and that the sizing's poor.
I'm going to say it's an overplay. Your equity's not good vs a continuing range.
Why are we checking the flop with an over pair to the board?
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-27-2020 , 03:53 AM
Not sure why everyone hates this, surely often the hands that crush us on the flop don't just call the 3 bet given how wet it is. I would weight villain heavily toward a draw that isn't good enough combowise to get in on the flop, and given the turn totally misses so much of that range I feel we are good over 50% here.

Can also potentially get looked up by a pocket pair that thinks we are just shoving the scare card.
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-27-2020 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeccross
Not sure why everyone hates this, surely often the hands that crush us on the flop don't just call the 3 bet given how wet it is. I would weight villain heavily toward a draw that isn't good enough combowise to get in on the flop, and given the turn totally misses so much of that range I feel we are good over 50% here.

Can also potentially get looked up by a pocket pair that thinks we are just shoving the scare card.
Yeah this is more or less what I was thinking, but still I feel like I jammed a bluffcatcher more or less (mostly to not give a free card to his draw heavy range) which somehow doesn't seem right. :P

Quote:
Originally Posted by iblis
WTF is that 3bet
If you have a 3bet range on this flop, what would be in it (assuming we don't x flop that is)? I mean there are obviously reasons to play this kind of hand fast (vulnerable overpair on a wet board), although I am probably mixing it with QQ. TT or JJ I would 3bet with even higher frequency. On the other hand I understand that CO should be very polarized 3way and not raise something like 88 (in practice I am not sure though, especially after him calling pre in the CO).
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote
05-27-2020 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hamar5
Yeah this is more or less what I was thinking, but still I feel like I jammed a bluffcatcher more or less (mostly to not give a free card to his draw heavy range) which somehow doesn't seem right. :P
Yeah, but you're OOP and made the last raise on flop, he might check back the turn a lot.
[NL50] QQ on low board - overplay? Quote

      
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