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[NL50] Do we Bother Valuebetting River?

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05-26-2020 , 12:10 AM

#26

newguyhere

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 7,164

I'm confused. I didn't think it was an issue of whether villain has a better hand, but if he has a worse hand that will call.

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05-26-2020 , 12:23 AM

#27

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by newguyhere

I'm confused. I didn't think it was an issue of whether villain has a better hand, but if he has a worse hand that will call.

Even if those two assumptions were almost always true. We would still bet the river.

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05-26-2020 , 12:33 AM

#28

ashtona

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 150

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

Even if those two assumptions were almost always true. We would still bet the river.

could you elaborate on why we'd still bet river if villain almost never calls and almost always calls with better?

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05-26-2020 , 12:57 AM

#29

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by ashtona

could you elaborate on why we'd still bet river if villain almost never calls and almost always calls with better?

He won't almost always call with better because he almost never has better.

If we went to the extreme and said he never has a better hand than AK here but he never calls with with a worse hand we would still ship it in because we are free rolling vs misclicks/spazzes. On top of that Villain will never know if we were bluffing or not which may benefit us in the future.

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05-26-2020 , 01:05 AM

#30

its_snowing

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 37

Yes

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05-26-2020 , 01:45 AM

#31

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,011

Quote:

Originally Posted by SelimSuuuup

What heros A26r c/r call call.

A26Tx River bets.

JJ? QQ? KK? 88? 77? I can't imagine. Villains awkward bluffs of 78 T9s both get there.

You really think people raise/call c/r AJ and AQ on A26?

The average 2NL player might.

I didn't say I smelled value... if HE does. I'm with you as far as trepidations about value betting here.

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05-26-2020 , 02:50 AM

#32

SelimSuuuup

adept

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 837

The people advocating bets are people thinking like villain is smart enough to not check back made hands on river.

Go through your databases and look @ hands like this. You're value owning yourself, getting re-bluffed off some others, folding his non made hands, some % they fold an A and rarely getting called by worse.

Save yourself the headache

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05-26-2020 , 03:00 AM

#33

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

thought about it, I'd x/

I think there are virtually no weaker Ax by the river in oop's range (given turn bet), mby some AK he flats pre, so basically he x rivers with the give ups (54s/65s/76s/whatnot), x the few AK in his range and potentially sets to trap. doesn't seem like a good idea to jam into that polar range with a 1p hand.

would jam vs fishy looking v, think there are more random Ax to snap us

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05-26-2020 , 04:10 AM

#34

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

so in other words, I think that vs an optimal opp, ye we can likely jam, but I imagine the increase in ev over x is only slight
but if the guy is x-ing river with nutty hands and doesn't x/c enough weaker hands, the ev of betting will prob take a big dive when compared to checking

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05-26-2020 , 04:15 AM

#35

jeccross

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 3,807

Yeah, I think I check back. It's a goofy line, and therefore I can see a goofy check on river with hands that beat us. Then there's a ton of air. I can see him being so polarised that the two outcomes from betting and he folds, or he shoves a hand that beats us.

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05-26-2020 , 05:18 AM

#36

Iblis

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

IMaWizard always dropping knowledge. I'd ship river as I don't expect a better hand to ever check this river.

Why though. Villain should obviously have some give ups on the river, theoretically he's supposed to balance that with some good hands.

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05-26-2020 , 05:31 AM

#37

IMaWIZARD

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 479

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iblis

Why though. Villain should obviously have some give ups on the river, theoretically he's supposed to balance that with some good hands.

Yes and those are AQ/AJ, not sets. I havent ran it but I guarantee you oop should not be checking a hand > AK otr. I'd seriously need to reconsider how I approach the game if thats the case.

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05-26-2020 , 05:55 AM

#38

Iblis

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD

Yes and those are AQ/AJ, not sets. I havent ran it but I guarantee you oop should not be checking a hand > AK otr. I'd seriously need to reconsider how I approach the game if thats the case.

I don't think he's x/raising those OTF, ever, which means he's forced to pick some stronger combos from his polarized range.
You could make a good case by saying that villain won't care much about balancing his river checking range as he didn't care much about raising flop at an optimal frequency though.
Who knows.

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05-26-2020 , 06:01 AM

#39

IMaWIZARD

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 479

So you cant assume he plays flop/turn wrong but somehow finds the god check otr with a set. You have to be consistent with your assumptions.

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05-26-2020 , 06:02 AM

#40

SelimSuuuup

adept

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 837

I think if you bet this river as standard you might want to already consider some things about your game. I actually would believe over a decent sample this to be a leak.

There is even incentive to see what he is c/r on this flop

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05-26-2020 , 06:16 AM

#41

Iblis

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD

So you cant assume he plays flop/turn wrong but somehow finds the god check otr with a set. You have to be consistent with your assumptions.

That's why I said you could make a good case for that, I realized my contradiction.

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05-26-2020 , 06:18 AM

#42

IMaWIZARD

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 479

Good stuff

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05-26-2020 , 06:27 AM

#43

Iblis

veteran

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,299

I checked anyway and the dude showed Q

which is actually an interesting flop x/r choice.

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05-26-2020 , 07:13 AM

#44

SeinZumSpiel

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 33

Good post, eye-opener in a seemingly routine situation.

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05-26-2020 , 08:02 AM

#45

SelimSuuuup

adept

Join Date: May 2020 Posts: 837

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iblis

I checked anyway and the dude showed Q

which is actually an interesting flop x/r choice.

Backdoor straight/backdoor flush. Great turn card to keep barreling. tough to know if hero will fold hands like AQ/AK. I say give up.

I actually don't like the c/r with the hand like QJ as we block QQ/JJ KQ/QJ etc..

I think Villain should do this with more hands like 45 78 89.

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05-26-2020 , 03:53 PM

#46

JohnRusty

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 2,755

Quote:

Originally Posted by IMaWIZARD

Are you cbetting range here? We shouldnt fwiw. Does he know youre cbetting range? Does he know how equilibrum shifts when we cbet range? Anyway, hard to answer those questions I know but they would help in figuring out what the hell his range look like?

The more you cbet, the more he should xr in theory but this might not be the case in practice meaning we might get away with cbetting our whole range.

Anyway, never check back AK on that flop, it will be a pure bet, anyone who suggest checking it should get back in the lab

Pretty sure he should be doing roughly 15% xr vs a gto cbet here (probs around 40% if were cbetting range!!), including a bunch of AQ, AJ, sets, 76s, 65s, and a smidge of 33,44,55,77,88,99 etc.

Turn hes still supposed to do a bunch of betting with 76,65,TT,AQ,AJ, etc., most likely pure xing the low equity pocket pairs (44,55,99, etc.) since they naturally have low ev with their rock bottom equity. We gonna have to peel his turn bet pretty wide, all gutter will call, calling some JJ-KK, mixing some folds with the weaker Ax, pure folding our Tx, etc.

And river will be a clear cut value bet for us, his sets are incentivised to jam (because we x back AQ if he checks but call vs his jam) and its too thin for his top pair to jam, meaning they will have to x and mix call/fold vs our jam.

All this is theory tho, but I would still jam river because I dont think hes ever checking river with better, and why would you pass on a redline freeroll?

listen to this guy

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