PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - €0.10/€0.25 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: €35.09 (140 bb)
MP: €31.36 (125 bb)
CO: €101.38 (406 bb)
BU: €64.75 (259 bb)
SB (Hero): €67.75 (271 bb)
BB: €17.95 (72 bb)

Pre-Flop: (€0.35) Hero is SB with A♠ K♣
UTG raises to €0.75, 2 players fold, BTN 3-bets to €2.39, Hero 4-bets to €5.90, 2 players fold, BTN calls €3.51

Flop: (€12.80) K♦ 5♥ 8♠ (2 players)
Hero bets €3.20, BTN calls €3.20

Turn: (€19.20) A♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (€19.20) J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets €20.87, Hero calls €20.87
__________

610 hands on V., looks like your average reg (22/16/9).
I check turn in order to induce beacuse it feels like he can't really call with much that we beat at this point (KQ, maybe AQ?), is it too FPS to check river too? b/x/b looks non-sense.
What do you think about this line?

Interesting spot since ranges are so narrow. I'd size up on the flop since I definitely want a checking range here deep and oop. Not sure about the turn, if you had AQ here you'd propably want to check too?

OTR I thought checking makes sense since you really dont wanna see a jam but what flushes does he really have other than KhQh? Some low frequency 3bets vs UTG that he decided to flat deep IP vs ur 4b and call the flop? Seems unlikely

flop sizing is good, I'd size up turn for river shove to stack AQ AJ, this is a spot that you have to capitalize on as it's not going to come up frequently this deep in a cold 4-bet spot (you being near top of range with deep stacks).

Definitely checking AQ OTT.

We have the A so there should only be 2 combos of AQ/AJ (suited diamonds) in his range though.

2 each, diamonds and clubs, I agree, but ranges are already narrow, and we are near the top of ours.

also happy to triple barrel if the board runs out 3 flush, the board blocks a lot of flushes, it's just a cooler if we run into the KQ of hearts

AQ/AJ aren't a fold OTF?

haha I missed that, whoops. I have to pay better attention.
You are right.

So to wrap it up it looks like a situation where we need to decide if it's more EV+ to bet and gain value from AQ/AJ/KQ or check and try to induce from these hands (which should mostly check behind I guess?) plus QQ-TT/weird stuff he floats OTF if there's any.

didn't you just answer your own question hahah

Yeah I did lol. Betting turn was probably the way to go.

You should bet ott
River's pretty close. Probably a fold. Especially since if you're x'ing AK here, you have AA/KK. Even AxKh is a much better call because lol blocker. I seriously doubt he's bluffing and there's not a single value hand that you beat for that size.

IMO your average reg gonna have close to 0% bluffing freq otr. Would have to turn sth like QxQh TxTh into bluff which I just don't see happening from most regs at 25.

Would size up the 4bet since you are OOP and eff stacks are 260bb.

Since you are deep I think it is a fair assumption that he will continue with a slighty wider range preflop.

That along with other reasons makes turn a Clear bet with AK. You have other Ax you can check along with AA.

Rivercheck I don't mind. Doesn't feel good on the river facing this bet but he is mostly repping JJ so I don't mind the x/c.

You guys nailed it.
Results:

I wonder if there's any merit in villain's line.
Preflop looks way too wide, even IP and 260x deep.
River kind of whatever but someone who's less of a station than me might have folded I guess.
At least he had balls.

Wow, the 3bet pre seems really bad. Also the peel vs 4b, same SPR as in a 3bet pot but your range is much, much stronger. Propably turning TT with a heart to a bluff if he has it here is better than his random one pair holdings

Range wise it will always be a mess when you 3bet/flat vs a C4B 86s, but in a vacuum the bet OTR cannot be that bad imo vs a population that will usually be pretty capped after checking twice.

if he overbet ships flushes and all of his whiffs/low sdv hands, how happy are you going to be with the vast majority of your range?

I ran a sim and you'd have to defend 100% provided you bet range flop and checked range turn and river, which means QQ and AQs too. if you only call AA/KK, which are ~20%, he's mathematically correct to shove 5 combos of flushes and 20 combos of weak pairs/air. The solver is even shipping TT and 99 if oop only defends AA and KK. It's crazy how much he gets to over bluff if you don't defend correctly and food for thought when you're the one ip in this spot in the future.

as an interesting side note, this seems to be the toy game solvers play for constructing betting ranges:

OOP has to make sure his checking range is strong enough that IP has to check back at least 50% of the time
If OOP does not have enough strong hands in their range to prevent IP from betting more than 50% of the time when OOP checks, then OOP checks his entire range
If OOP has a betting range, and if OOP checks, then IP checks back more than 50% of his range

Betting turn seems mandatory.
If you're not value betting stuff as strong as AK, then you're left in a spot where you have a ton of good hands like AK, and bluffs that got there like AQ or AJ or suited wheel aces etc that I'm assuming you're going to check turn as well. If villain is even slightly aware of what you're doing he'll realize very quickly that your checking range in this kind of spot is super strong.
In spots where you have an extremely strong range you want to be doing the betting, not allowing villain to realize a ton of equity when he is good because you're checking way too much instead of being able to bluff a lot.

Turn I understand your reasoning behind the check but I think from a theory standpoint it might be a mistake. Our hand is not so strong that the EV of checking is higher than the money that is already in the pot (Janda). Equity denial in these 4bet pots is extremely important.

I like the river call as we are perceived to have a lot of one pair hands (QQ/KQ/AQ - this might be innaccurate as I am unaware of your 4 bet range in this spot) and I think villain can end up way overbluffing this spot versus the turn check.

According to your logic the turn should be a clear bet. AQ and AJ checks behind that turn and has showdown value so no reason to think that V would be tempted to bet in this spot with pot being so large and only TPGK. I think a bet will get the worse hands that you mention to call your turn bet and not necessarily bluff.