Hi Guys.

I've been trying to really go back to basics these last few weeks, looking at my game and trying to identify leaks. This type of situation is a big leak of mine. My main problem on the turn here, is that I can compute quickly enough whether I should be calling or not. I figured that my hand was behind, but I had decent equity against AK, KQ (which seemed the most feasible hands villain could have, although I maybe would have expected a 3bet pre with AK). I blocked some hands that could have me dominated like JT and bigger flush draws so worked that into my decision.

My question is - how can I best go about working out if a call is the correct one in these spots?

I roughly guessed that I was around 30% v KQ (worst case scenario) and was getting around 2.8/1 pot odds so felt it was marginally incorrect to call mathematically but still called anyway (leak of mine again)




All advice welcome.

Thanks.

its fine

Let's look at the best case scenario on the turn (villain has two pair with no spade).
You have 14 outs (9 for flush, 3 for straight, 2 for trips) 14 out of 44 cards, that's a bit worse than 1:2 to win the pot. On the other hand you have to call 1.59$ to win 2.85$. The pot odds you are getting are 1:1.8 . So even in the best case scenario the call on the turn is -ev, just fold it

Right because villain is never bluffing

No, villain shows up with pocket 5s and j2o very occasionally. Pls be more serious, OP is trying to improve on poker and you're advising him that calling an overbet shove on the turn with a not even nut draw is fine

Because it is fine.

cool, show calcs

Tableau : 9hKsQhAs
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 20.45% 20.45% 0.00% { 8h7h }
MP3 79.55% 79.55% 0.00% { Ts9s }

Board: Qh9hKsAs
Equity Win Tie
MP2 72.99% 72.59% 0.40% { 99, KQs, QJs, JTs, KhJh, KQo }
MP3 27.01% 26.60% 0.40% { Ts9s }

I agree with @Sfliaras, it's quite a clear fold. Let's be honest, BTN is rarely ever bluffing here and even if they're their spazzy bluffs might even be ahead of T9s.

@OP, best advice for you is to get equilab and assign some sort of range to BTN. Getting someone else to do it for you doesn't help you at all.

Why do you only put him on 78 hh? Are you trying to mess with us to boost your winrate? Delete your 2p2 account bro

think it's close ott, but we shouldn't be in that spot imo

Preflop:

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
57.2764% 54.9726% 2.3038% [ 22-TT, A2s-AJs, A8o-AQo, K8o+, Q8o+, K8s-KJs, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 98s ]
42.7236% 40.4198% 2.3038% [ 9sTs ]

Flop after his reraise:

Board: 9h Qh Ks

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
57.7581% 53.1749% 4.5832% [ 99-TT, A9s-AJs, A9o-AQo, K8o+, Q8o+, K8s-KJs, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, J8o+, T8o+, 98s ]
42.2419% 37.6587% 4.5832% [ 9sTs ]

Turn (even if we consider in his range some SD, GSD, FD):

Board: Ks Qh 9h As

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
57.5312% 53.0749% 4.4563% [ 99-TT, A9s-AJs, A9o-AQo, K9o+, Q9o+, K9s-KJs, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, J8o+, T8o+]
42.4688% 38.0125% 4.4563% [ 9sTs ]

Imo its a fold OTT. Maybe even on OTF with 3rd pair weak kicker, a BDFD and a GSD (here an J can be the worse card for hero )

Yes I'm sure that will boost my 2nl winrate. I'm just showing what happens when you plug in unrealistic ranges.

Would prefer to 3-bet PF but flatting's got to be okay.

I'm folding OTT. I think it's very hard to get to the 37% equity (post-rake) we need to justify a call.

Also not super convinced about either flop call.

oh yeah obvs flop call is awful, thought I'd clarify I don't condone it lol

flop call is pretty standard imo with these odds closing the action

Calling it fairly standard is quite a large stretch haha. cba to plug it in, but all our outs can be dominated and BTN will be betting turn 90% of the time too. I'd be shocked if it was a call tbh

no he won't be betting turn 90% of the time

Don't be so petty lol, his range will be value heavy so we don't realise what little equity we do have is my point.

don't need to realize the full equity

The answers are all over the place
IMO BTN rarely is bluffing and if he is bluffing it is not a planned bluff or thinking bluff just a random spew where we cant assign any range unless we have more info on him

IMO I fold turn

Ojune, swimming against the current lol.

I might raise flop. I would fold to the raise otf.

It's fine calling when UTG bets the flop but once the button raises this is a pretty trivial fold IMO. AP only if we were deeper could we maybe call or xr depending on his bet sizing and stack depth . The most valuable thing at this point is implied odds when we make a backdoor flush. But even so OOP it's hard to realize equity. After he raises flop and bets turn he's showing a lot of strength so if we river a flush we could bet small like 1/3 or 1/4 pot to make it look like a blocker bet and induce a raise (or bet big and hope he has a hand he's not folding because it's so hard for us to have a flush)
This situation just got really hypothetical tho. Given the spr just dump it when he raises the flop. You're never going to make money by calling. Even a cold 3bet is better than calling. You can try to rep 99 since you block bottom set but that probably only folds out his heart draws and gets you called by 2pair and better. Maybe he calls with KJ for top pair + gutshot but that still has you crushed. Just fold . You can find way better spots to win the moneys.

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Folding turn ap will be better than calling. Had UTG player also called turn, then you should call turn as well.