What to do in this spot? Call? Raise? Fold?

Villian donkbet flop 20% (24/113)

V gives us 2:1 odds on the flop. With this flushdraw We have 65.77% Equity against V´s 33% call preflop range. (Btw: Its hard for me to work out these numbers as playing the hand. Do you guys have any tips for training this stuff?)

I was thinking like: "I dont want to Raise to bloat the pot and turn my hand into a expensive bluff. And if I Call I cant see V having something great to pay us off with. Even if my flush hits on Turn V wouldnt pay me off, and if I miss V will make me pay more, so I folded here"

Sometimes they bluff and sometimes they have like middle-pair hands using these kind of bets as protection and "seeing where they stand". They then folding against raise or just checking it back later streets and folding bigger bets.

So am I wrong for folding?

Villian could have set or flushdraw to pay us of with. And even against pair we have overcards that can hit.


PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $3.35 (VPIP: 33.28, PFR: 15.20, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 1,920)
UTG: $2.35 (VPIP: 41.07, PFR: 33.93, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 59)
CO: $7.26 (VPIP: 29.43, PFR: 2.64, 3Bet Preflop: 1.60, Hands: 272)
Hero (BTN): $2.22
SB: $2.00 (VPIP: 17.45, PFR: 14.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.19, Hands: 1,453)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.06, fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.13, 2 players) 2 9 7
BB bets $0.13, fold

BB wins $0.13

horrible

ouch, dont fold flop. Youre drawing to the nuts...

I agree, the fold here is horrible.

If you fold hands like this, what is even the point of a flush draw?

here is why:

If the V is betting with TPTK (which is less likely since you have an Ace, but for the sake of argument):

A9o vs AsJs = 46.57% vs 53.43%

If he bets 2nd pair top kicker:

A7o vs AsJs = 52.83% vs 47.17%

if he best an open-ender:

86s & T8s vs AsJs = 32.36 vs 67.64%

If he bets straight FD:

Ts8s & 8s6s vs AsJs = 41.16% vs 58.84%

and even if he bets a set or two pair, your pot odds are 2:1 (33%) and you have 25.56% equity vs a set of 9s and 36% vs 97s. And if he does that, you make a note and you know what he is doing the next time that happens and you never pay him off again. And remember, his Ts8s & 8s6s FDs are no good here, that's just an open ender for him.

In any case, the V seems to be a fish (33/15/2.2)

Check his Flop donkbet stat, in my experience players who donk with a set here also donk with a bunch of other stuff. If he bets even slightly more then just 2 pair and sets you are good + you always have fold equity if you decide to raise (not saying you should, just making a point).

If I calculated right, there are 21 combos that beat you at this point - have more then 50% equity: A9s (3), A9o (9), 99 (3), 77 (3), 22 (3)

In any case, if he is betting anything worse then sets and 2 pair ONLY, you are good.

And don't forget, your odds of hitting the flush here is about 36%, and if he has a FD it's even better as he is drawing dead. And since he is a fish there is a great chance you are getting payed off.

Thanks for the analys gabl136!!

You're thinking this way too much and are playing scared of monsters under the bed. You have 111 bb with the nut flush draw, a backdoor straight (or straight flush) draw, and A as an overcard as a partial out if V slowplays KK-JJ. A full pot bet gives you exactly 33% pot odds. Very favourable situation for you.

BB is VPIP 33 PFR: 15 over almost 2,000 hands. This tells me that this player is rather loose passive, so you can put him on a wider calling range with connectors, lower pairs, lesser As, and some broadway cards in the mix. Could also be possibly slowplaying, but you cannot run paranoid. Plenty of players at 2NL still continue at least one street with connecting pairs or chasing a Flush. That's why we put players onto a range, and slowplayed monsters are indeed part of the high end of V's range here.

Let's say you call and a brick hits? V can check, and you check back = free card. V makes another big pot-sized bet? This means betting 39c to win a 78c pot PLUS V's stack up to 111bb if you hit your draw. Think implied odds! Plus, a T or a 8 would actually give you additional outs with a gutshot draw.

You hit your flush and V checks? Time to value bet : Make a bet 50-66% of the pot and odds are he will find a reason to call to see one last street if he has one.


As played, folding here is horrendous. I would either call and reevaluate on the Turn or raise as a semi-bluff, fully ready to shove.

If OP sees two cards. It is 19% to hit on the Turn, for one card.