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NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here?

07-21-2019 , 05:28 AM
No history/reads/stats vs villain. First hand for villain
But villain had both dwan and durr in his id which weighed heavily in my decision making

Had lot of history with CO who folded to 3 bets very frequently

*************************
    Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    Hero (SB): $314.54 (157.3 bb)
    BB: $193 (96.5 bb)
    MP: $100.51 (50.3 bb)
    CO: $238.84 (119.4 bb)
    BTN: $366.43 (183.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with T K
    MP folds, CO raises to $6, BTN folds, Hero raises to $20, BB calls $18, CO folds

    Flop: ($46) 9 4 Q (2 players)
    Hero bets $21.82, BB raises to $173 and is all-in, Hero ??


    ***************
    preflop: 3 bet CO to make him fold. BB came along. I am putting BB on pair, suited broadways, high suited connectors.

    post flop: c-bet my gutshot with one over on a Qxx board slightly wet.
    Guy goes all-in!

    my thinking:
    Wait a minute! A set or 2 pair would not shove here. it would slow play
    Why a shove here even with NFD with overs? Why not a 60-70 bet?
    or looks like default AK play. But AK would have 4 bet.

    This looks like a hand scared to move normally to the turn. What is it afraid of?
    I am now putting the range like JJ, 9x,QT+, 22-88 except 44,99.
    add JT, Ac4c+,


    Questions:
    0) Easy fold? I have like 7 outs to beat top pair so 28% chance. and 2 outs are in clubs so barely 20% chance
    1) Is it +EV to call here?.. pot odds are like 40%.. equilab says it is only 35-65 only vs villains range.
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote
    07-21-2019 , 05:36 AM
    I'd bet slightly less otf, it's actually pretty dry. As played it's an easy fold. You're even behind to a good amout of V's bluffs.

    Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote
    07-21-2019 , 05:38 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by I_NUK3D_U
    I'd bet slightly less otf, it's actually pretty dry. As played it's an easy fold. You're even behind to a good amout of V's bluffs.

    Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
    what would the guy shove here? I am damn sure it is not AK, 44 or 99
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote
    07-21-2019 , 05:48 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dubakkur2
    what would the guy shove here? I am damn sure it is not AK, 44 or 99
    Have you considered that you are behind some of his bluffs? Nut flush draws, 9x of clubs...even a hand like J10 of clubs is probably ahead in equity

    Calling off here is not where the money is to be made
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote
    07-21-2019 , 05:53 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dubakkur2
    what would the guy shove here? I am damn sure it is not AK, 44 or 99
    Against an unknown NL2 villain, pretty much anything. AKs, Axs, J10, AQ, KQ plus anything that actually hit big. 99 shoves here at NL2 all day 'fearing' the flush.

    Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote
    07-21-2019 , 06:42 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dubakkur2
    No history/reads/stats vs villain. First hand for villain
    But villain had both dwan and durr in his id which weighed heavily in my decision making
    Yeah, no, don't do that. It's fishy and stupid. People can put whatever they want in their games and pictures and it has no correlation with their play. Ignore it.


    Easy fold.
    NL2- Is calling All-in shove with Gutshot with overs +EV here? Quote

          
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