ok tldr; long sob story post incoming


I have been a full time grinder since beginning of 2016. I moved from 100nl to 500nl in a few months and played mostly 500nl in 2016, winning 5.8bbs/100 over 330k hands (american sites).

fast forward to sep 2017, I return from a vacation, resume grinding at 2knl at that time, lose 15BIs. Ok, downswings happen, regroup, move down.

November 2017, 1knl, lost 8.5BIs, again let's regroup, still rolled for midstakes, keep on plugging.

In December I Joined the Asian apps at the urging of friends, and played those in Dec/Jan, losing 22k playing a mix of 10/20 and 20/40 CNY holdem + PLO (which I had decided to learn)/.
All in all my stakes played on that site I would roughly say equate to an ABI of $500.

At this point I'm feeling quite decimated, questioning everything, maybe I'm just not good enough to play mid-high stakes at all, and feeling a bit sketched/unsure of the Asian sites, people have mentioned collusion, fishy stuff going on.
I make the sensible decision to return to grinding low to mid stakes on American sites.

Cue Jan-Apr 2018 Betonline Holdem + PLO:



Holdem ONLY (mostly 200nl and 400nl):




At this point, with roll seriously depleted, I decided to move to other sites. Part of the reason I had grinded Betonline with holdem+PLO was significant incentives in the rake races. Friends I respect told me I should prioritize fishier sites over rake incentives so I decided to move to Global Poker + Ignition.

Ignition this year:




I CANNOT TRACK GLOBAL POKER, I'm up a few thousand there but nothing too significant.


So basically tldr; wrt the graphs, i'm breakeven at holdem (my main game) PLO notwithstanding, over the last 155k tracked hands, and that is AFTER losing a chunk of change at mid to higher stakes.

Ok two quick things to clarify:

- At no point during this downswing have I gone on significantly tilted sessions, spewing stacks, making clearly -EV decisions due to rage, whatever. I definitely have played a lot of B to D grade game but I never willfully spewed stacks.
- I am not some strat fish stuck in 2011, I post a lot on forums, know a fair bit of basic GTO stuff, watch strategy videos, run sims, all this stuff that anyone worth their salt in 2018 should be doing.
I'm definitely not a top reg and will never be but I'm also not the worst reg out there either.


So yeah I have no idea what's going on, or some objective/rational way to analyze/assess this downswing. I don't know what I'm doing wrong. REPEATEDLY over the course of this process, I've done a sort of mental regroup, trying to get my head straight, like ok, long downswings are common in poker, we all know that, let's just keep our head down, run 2 sims a day, keep the intellectual fire around poker going so we're not just clicking buttons, and try to just put in hours and play the best you can this hand/this hour/this day.

Anyway Idk what I'm doing really with this post but I feel unable to objectively look at my situation or assess my game and I'm at my wit's end torn between an urge to just walk away from poker entirely or to keep putting in hours in a desperate and almost farcical attempt to recover the EV I feel I'm owed. I have no idea what to do.
Any comments/suggestions/thoughts on this situation are appreciated.

BTW also -18k in MTTs in very low volume during my career






**I've tried my best to give an overview of my games played and results in last few years, obviously this can't and won't tell the whole story of everything.

I've played with you a little bit on Carbon. My first suggestion, this is with having next to zero game knowledge is drop plo for the time being, your just in so much more variance oriented spots as opposed to holdem, which yes they still exist in holdem, but your not constantly racing sets vs wraps and more 60-40 situations, etc. As for WPN I have had zero luck on that site, will say the tournaments are no joke there by far toughest. Without a major score, your likely going to be down. There is a variance site, here is the link, that can show you how bad you truly can run. Poker will definitely test your mental fortitude. It sounds like you have a better mental game than I do.


http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Maybe you do not want to hear.. but it is common even for crushers to have be for 100k hands.. the volume that you provide in graphs seems really small for such a long time..

Check this (as same as variance calculator that jay94 provided)..
https://www.splitsuit.com/poker-variance-visualized

Yeah this just sounds like variance. How many hands a day are you playing? You should be playing at least 2k hands a day IMO. Also how many tables are you playing?

I will start by saying that I have never played higher than 50NL.

Maybe it's just because the majority of my winnings come from my red line but that dip that you have seems quite drastic. imo, basing it on nothing but looking at your graphs, you just aren't fighting for pots or your equity in them enough.

Since OP has opened the floor to any and all suggestions, I will echo a previous poster. I don’t know how that red line could work at high stakes. Also, the more you move down, the better the red line should look.

The very same variance calculators can also be used to estimate your true WR vs results. Poker skill is not a normal distribution, so results of 6BB/100 after rakeback could in fact be breakeven skill over 150k hands. If the true WR before rakeback is about 3BB/100 then variance alone could cause years of losing results, or winning results.

Given the history in 2016, versus the results in the last 12 months, there is no evidence that op has the skill edge for high stakes. Most likely was on a heater.

I am a microstakes poker hobbyist. Nothing I have said comes from any accomplishment of my own. I do not like at all to say negative things in a thread such as this.

You should be another -9k down (all in EV). This should not be overlooked. Pay someone to analyse your DB to find leaks you are blind to. WPN is a super tough network. Are you devoting enough study time to keep pace? Just because you have been a winning mid stakes player in the past doesn't guarantee that you will continue to be able to.

I was surprised to see the common fish tail graph. I thought that as you move up the stakes, you start trading in some W$SD pots for non-W$SD pots. Is this an incorrect assumption?

It takes guts to post something like this. I wish you well and hope you find someone who can fix you.

IMO going from 100nl to 2k nl and back down to 1k nl has totally screwed with your hand selection, hand reading, and thought process. I think you need to go back to 100 or 500 nl and get things back on track, then slowly move up. I say this as a recognized professional poker player...in my own mind.

high stakes seems like a really tough life. there are guys making it work playing nl200 and living relatively stress free. at least you can go back to nl500 and smash it while figuring things out.

has redline been proven to matter at all? it was basically just an indicator of aggressiveness before black friday....this guy vinivici was the toppest winner at Stars full ring games, posted "no variance" graphs and his red line was like -45 degrees.

ETA: vini played full ring

My opinion is that red line matters more today than pre BF. I also think it matters more the higher the stakes (the better the opponents are). Also, full ring will have a naturally lower red line because of the nature of multi-way pots. Lastly, whatever your red line is, it should look better when you move down (the worse the opponents are).

Appreciate the comments. Lot to respond to here.

Re: volume, it has def been too low, had a bunch of IRL stuff from Sep-Dec last year, then Asian apps are super low for hands/hr. I got back into playing more volume from Feb-April this year and put in 60k hands in March but after breaking even over that period I lost motivation again and didn't play enough this summer.
I'm trying to get back to more volume and put in 2k hands/day.

Re: all in EV, I didn't post every graph of mine, but I'm down estimated 40k in EV at high stakes FWIW/if that matters.

Re: PLO, I dropped it from my grind in April.

Re: redline, I really don't know about this, bc I know my own game well enough to know that I'm not just playing super weak/giving up tons of barrel opportunities. I definitely do way more river stabs in checkdown situations with air than other regs, and I do a fair amount of barreling for bigger sizes on textures that favor my range, etc. Like I really don't know what's wrong with my redline/how to fix it.


PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTGplus2 (CO): $409.35 (VPIP: 23.21, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 33,168)
Dealer (BTN): $252.65 (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 20.72, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 34,166)
Hero (SB): $334.93
Big Blind (BB): $530.23 (VPIP: 32.42, PFR: 6.83, 3Bet Preflop: 6.66, Hands: 34,196)
UTG (UTG): $398.20 (VPIP: 18.65, PFR: 16.15, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 33,926)
UTGplus1 (MP): $221.57 (VPIP: 20.63, PFR: 16.63, 3Bet Preflop: 4.25, Hands: 33,711)

Hero posts SB $1.00, Big Blind posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 6 A

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $6.00, Big Blind calls $4.00

Flop: ($12.00, 2 players) 2 K Q
Hero bets $4.00, Big Blind calls $4.00

Turn: ($20.00, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $24.00, Big Blind calls $24.00

River: ($68.00, 2 players) J
Hero bets $52.00, Big Blind calls $52.00

Hero shows 6 A (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 57%, Flop 12%, Turn 7%)
Big Blind shows K J (Two Pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Pre 43%, Flop 88%, Turn 93%)
Big Blind wins $168.00



PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Big Blind (BB): $548.61 (VPIP: 32.45, PFR: 6.84, 3Bet Preflop: 6.65, Hands: 34,488)
UTG (UTG): $431.68 (VPIP: 18.66, PFR: 16.14, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 34,211)
UTGplus1 (MP): $188.60 (VPIP: 20.68, PFR: 16.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.30, Hands: 34,002)
UTGplus2 (CO): $148.14 (VPIP: 23.19, PFR: 17.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.22, Hands: 33,463)
Hero (BTN): $205.45
Small Blind (SB): $175.31 (VPIP: 26.89, PFR: 14.83, 3Bet Preflop: 7.38, Hands: 34,490)

Small Blind posts SB $1.00, Big Blind posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 9 Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, fold, Big Blind calls $3.00

Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) 7 4 K
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $4.00, Big Blind calls $4.00

Turn: ($19.00, 2 players) J
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $14.00, Big Blind calls $14.00

River: ($47.00, 2 players) 6
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $47.00, Big Blind calls $47.00

Hero shows 9 Q (High Card, King)
(Pre 36%, Flop 3%, Turn 7%)
Big Blind shows K T (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 65%, Flop 97%, Turn 93%)
Big Blind wins $137.00



PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTGplus1 (MP): $304.66 (VPIP: 20.85, PFR: 16.80, 3Bet Preflop: 4.30, Hands: 41,315)
Hero (CO): $197.90
Dealer (BTN): $301.69 (VPIP: 28.47, PFR: 20.85, 3Bet Preflop: 6.64, Hands: 41,734)
Small Blind (SB): $313.13 (VPIP: 26.78, PFR: 14.72, 3Bet Preflop: 7.40, Hands: 41,789)
Big Blind (BB): $759.63 (VPIP: 32.54, PFR: 6.83, 3Bet Preflop: 6.71, Hands: 41,765)
UTG (UTG): $570.18 (VPIP: 18.79, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 9.84, Hands: 41,457)

Small Blind posts SB $1.00, Big Blind posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 9 J

fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, Dealer calls $5.00, fold, Big Blind calls $3.00

Flop: ($16.00, 3 players) T 2 5
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $8.00, Dealer calls $8.00, fold

Turn: ($32.00, 2 players) K
Hero bets $22.00, Dealer calls $22.00

River: ($76.00, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $76.00, Dealer calls $76.00

Hero shows 9 J (High Card, King)
(Pre 46%, Flop 30%, Turn 23%)
Dealer shows A 5 (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 54%, Flop 70%, Turn 77%)
Dealer wins $224.00


PokerStars - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTGplus2 (CO): $154.00 (VPIP: 23.13, PFR: 17.86, 3Bet Preflop: 5.19, Hands: 31,962)
Hero (BTN): $531.58
Small Blind (SB): $101.70 (VPIP: 26.98, PFR: 14.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.36, Hands: 32,980)
Big Blind (BB): $337.78 (VPIP: 32.33, PFR: 6.79, 3Bet Preflop: 6.61, Hands: 32,988)
UTG (UTG): $99.98 (VPIP: 18.66, PFR: 16.18, 3Bet Preflop: 10.42, Hands: 32,720)
UTGplus1 (MP): $296.16 (VPIP: 20.67, PFR: 16.68, 3Bet Preflop: 4.19, Hands: 32,509)

Small Blind posts SB $1.00, Big Blind posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has J 9

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.00, fold, Big Blind calls $3.00

Flop: ($11.00, 2 players) 7 K Q
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $4.00, Big Blind calls $4.00

Turn: ($19.00, 2 players) 3
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $24.00, Big Blind calls $24.00

River: ($67.00, 2 players) J
Big Blind checks, Hero bets $45.50, fold

Hero wins $63.65

I think it's probably more likely that I'm folding too much to opponent's bets, and that I built up these leaks over time, partly as a result of playing on American sites, where the average reg is not very good and has too low aggression. It's easy to get carried away with making a lot of explofolds I guess.

Anyway it's a good idea to have someone review my hands and get some FB.

Here are my F/T/R stats for 35k nlhe hands I played in Feb-Mar:






It looks like I'm folding A TON (although I swear the pool plays super weak except for certain guys)

just play more hands and keep learning, basically here you just ran bad for 90k hands, nothing to worry about here. No idea why you lost on asian sites, maybe variance + adjustment period +plo, can be some cheating I don't really play that high though so idk.

Is the 3B really this tight at 200NL?

Keep your chin up. The mental game is 1/2 the battle from what I've read.

This thread and what op is doing is awesome. Thank you for opening the book on what a great player should be doing.

I am actually amazed by this thread, maybe all the trollers/thread insulters got bored and quit these forums, this is good people, save the hating for highschool.

I'm really blown away by the positive reactions as well, I figured some kind hearted ppl would chime in at some point, but wasn't sure how much trolling there would be etc.
Really appreciate it guys.
Already today I played a lot more relaxed and focus was a lot better, less cognitive white noise/doubt after receiving external validation from this thread.

for sure.
And yeah that's Ignition zone fast fold poker, those are the hands of the pool of players by position. The hands convert as Pokerstars but they're definitely not.
People play way too weak on American sites by and large.

I'm not going to say one way or another who is the better player, I'm drunk af would assume you would be, but would say as a reg on this site, feel like your calling me out, I feel like I dealt with you appropriately. Apparently I am an average reg who has virtually no poker friends who loves this game than the vast majority, and that makes me a a bit teary eyed. I won't say I am the most charismatic guy, but if it has anything to do with poker I will only shed your perspective in a positive light. I am not even trying to say I am good because I have mediocre results my whole life and time is running out before bots run us over, and I fully believe there are bots on Merge, people just play to systematically for me to believe they are human.

Do you try and maintain a certain ratio of value bets:bluffs OTR ? It might be standard at midstakes, but I don't understand why J9dd barrels the rivered pair...but if you needed a certain bluff frequency then it makes sense why it was included.

@jay94 I'm not sure who you were on there, have we messaged before? I recognize your name on 2p2 a little bit but don't remember pm'ing you or anything.
I definitely don't have a leg to stand on in terms of calling anyone out, so not trying to do that.
I haven't played on Merge in a while but around the time I got banned there were a couple of Italian regs (tuxedomask, carpediem, others?) who my friend was convinced were bots. They did some weird stuff, like extremely aggressive flop and turn betting, there wasn't a single hand in their range they would check to the river.
Anyway best of luck man, Ignition is still a great site, I can confirm.

Yeah I'm not totally sure on that spot.
The way I was looking at it was, on this turn card, our semibluffs are JT/J9/AT, and f draws.
On river, all our str8 draws pair up, so our only pure bluffs are a few combos of AXcc, 98cc, 65cc. These hands have poor blocker qualities for bluffing, the low fds have no pair and no high card value which would help block V's strongest Kx, and the nfds block V's few combos of the nfd that would xf river. (I realize turn is a slight OB but I still think OOP has to xc all his unpaired nfds ott).

Any Jx for Hero has pretty limited and almost no SDV here, and given that the blocker qualities of Jx are much better than our busted fds (blocking KJ, QJs that floats flop), I think it's reasonable (and GTO) to prioritize blockers over absolute hand strength in certain spots.

However this topic of how to select bluffs in that type of spot is def a complex one and many good players have debated it in training content, etc. Basically whether to select by lowest SDV, or to select based on blockers (where the blockers hands might have some minimal amount of EV at SD).

i'm curious how to determine the number of bluff combos to include....if it's mainly just a function of % pot bet and estimating the hands they can call with....or if it's more defined, like try to maintain a ratio of 3:2 for value and bluffs or something. i use blockers for making ranges on the fly and seem ahead of my competition at .05/.10, but I know im too weak to survive at ssnl+ currently. it feels like i'm guessing while the better players are making more sound calculations. sorry for the mini derail....the hands ITT are a gear of aggression i don't currently have.

crafting value ranges seems a lot easier for some reason. there's a cutoff point for thin value, but it's complicated for bluffs. like, there's spots where being polarized isn't that great and having no bluffs could be good (this was my concern with the J9 hand, getting called no matter what)...that doesn't apply symmetrically at all to values. this is more of a personal musing though...i would very much subscribe to a 'well' GL op.

Variance can be pretty nasty :/

I'm also playing on an asian site. I had an upswing at first, went from 2/4 to 20/40 cny in 2 months.

Then I experienced the most ridiculous downswing considering my edge against these guys. Lost most of my roll in a month granted I was using an aggressive br management (moving down when <15 buy ins) that's still a 60 buy ins downswing against supersoft competition. Stuck playing 2/4 again and the downswing is still going strong :/

I've never been one of those "rigtards" and I know what variance is, it's very possible I'm just getting extremely unlucky but still I'm getting a bit paranoid. One can remember the absolute poker scandal.

Your fine I was borderline blacked out when I posted this I remember looking at the forums, but not what I said. I guess I was just looking a for a way to get anger/stress out of my system, a tip for everyone, don't date bipolar girls!

a well of what, tears? hehe appreciate the vote of confidence.
I wouldn't say my approach to bluffing or picking combos is too scientific (maybe one of my flaws as a player).
The board texture itself and one's estimate of what the pool is doing def matters a lot obviously. It's interesting you thought the KQXXJ board was one where you thought we didn't get enough river folds, bc I actually thought the opposite, that I expect ppl will fold a bit too much of their Kx, which is part of why I thought bluffing some Jx was good/reasonable.

I'm pretty sure most everyone is kinda just determining a rough estimate for how much they can bluff in a certain spot, then adjusting that by what they think pool response is, then selecting by blockers, and calling it a day without worrying about exacting frequencies.

yeah that's a pretty big heater and retreat
I've heard a lot of mixed opinions about the asian sites, several people I know have quit them just like me, but I do have one friend who swears by 'em and has been grinding them solid for past couple years.


lol
Ya I gotcha. who are/were you on merge?