Definitely. The first thing that springs to mind is that small pairs over probably comparatively overrepresented in his UTG range. To bring the range back up to 10.5%, it likely includes a few speculative hands that 3bet as a bluff but don't have enough value UTG to raise. In addition, a fairly good player like this will be isolating weak players a fair bit with holdings that durrrr wouldn't approve UTG.

Yes, but too often people attribute narrow postflop ranges to small preflop numbers. They say things like "He just have to have ___" here. Well - no he doesn't. You don't know that until you see it. This idea will be central to our discussions.

I can't disagree. Would like to see cold call poistional stats as well. I have never actually done this so please point out where i am wrong. I have tried a couple times but get more out of watching there showdown hand history's then digging into the numbers. So this is very helpful.


Honestly what i see in the numbers is a good reason to find a different table. And little to no reason to sit down if i can't be on his left. So many tables out there without someone this good making life hard on me.

But were about improving here and not bumhunting so I will go home and stove some differnt 10.5 ranges and see how different they can be.

We are going to dive into preflop play very soon, but no reason to not get a jump start on it. Here is a simple task:

1. Name one hand that would probably be pretty much only in hero's UTG 10.5% range.
2. Name one hand that would probably be pretty much only in hero's BTN 3-betting range.
3. Name one hand that would be in both.

And of course ... why are they in those categories?

I'm intrigued that he 3bets more from MP than from the SB. Definitely positionally aware and knows how to exploit UTG nits. He is also likely running like poop if he's still at 5nl.

How am I doing so far?

hes way too loose from the blinds

JTs he might open UTG. J7s he won't but he might 3 bet with it once in a while.

I don't think I would 3bet JTs from the button that often, unless I was deep or had some specific read which made raising JTs more +EV than cold-calling. Generally I don't like 3betting hands that have real value (like small pairs) because you lose so much when you get 4bet and you running way too many bluffs post-flop for a hand that can actually make strong holdings.

From the stats, it doesn't look like this player plays suited connectors from UTG. 10.5% might look something like {55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo} = 10.3% or {22+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AQo+,KQo} = 10.4%. So JTs is probably only in hero's cold-calling range

A hand that would only be in hero's 3-betting range is something like 86s. It has to be a marginal holding, like a hand that would be 3bet only part of the time or under certain circumstances, because any hand that 3bets for value also opens from UTG.

Definitely a good point. I had a hand I played (poorly) recently where I 3bet a 64/14 with TT from the SB vs CO, bet 80% on a J54r board and bet/called $7 into $14 on the turn with $18 stacks behind. I was talking about this with a strong player, who pointed out that while 64/14 might mean that he would call the 3bet light, we can't use that to justify a call on the turn, as calling the flop and then raising a double barrel is an insane bluff.

To think of it another way, you can only really assign rough preflop ranges to players using their VPIP/PFR stats. To base your actions on later streets on these earlier ranges is ignoring later evidence, such as the fact that this fish's range has tightened dramatically after check-calling then check-raising on a dry board.

I think that his UTG preflop raise consit mainly of 55+ ATss AJ+, QJss, KQ KJss and sometime some suited connectors

As for his 3b, his range would probably be polarize to top 3-4% of hand
the other 7-6% would be crappy hands that he doesn't want to see a flop with bit that can flop fairly well like K7ss.

I dont think he'll 3b hands like 55-88, AT-AJ,KQ,KJ since when called he usaly is in a bad shape vs a standard tag calling range

So...give me a sweat?

You had a chance! You were like "I don't have a mic for two weeks". Tsk tsk

give him a sweat i seriously think he just posts bad. We have an ongoing arguement settle it for us verneer!

ps - have a mic and would definitely want a sweat.

I'm generally flatting JTs on the btn generally because smaller pairs are a big part of ppl's raising ranges UTG and in MP as well as big pairs which we will have implied odds against. hands like K6s are great 3bet bluffing hands OTB because of having the blocker to AK/KK as well as being able to make top pair that's ahead of TT-QQ if the raiser so chooses to flat these OOP.

as far as only hand in hero's UTG range I'm not quite comprehending? I can't see a hand we would open UTG that we would not open elsewhere

This is a good example of a hand which might be in the 10.5% BTN 3-bet range but won't be in the UTG range. 77 is a great example of the opposite. AA, as mentioned, is a good hand which is in both.

1. KJo
2. 79s
3. KJo

KJo is in that range is because it is in the bottom of high value hands that you would open from an early position. This can be interpreted as thin value.

79s is one of the very bottom hands that I might I would 3bet a CO postion because

a. he folds to a lot of 3bets therefore it's +ev than folding or calling and will pick up dead money a fair amount of the time because he would fold.

b. he plays badly in 3bet pots therefore it's +ev because he will play fit or fold allowing me to play perfectly.

c. if i bet and he calls, although my hand is weak, I can flop disguised hands and can value town him if I make a big hand and he has a big hand, or I can bet and fold out a lot of better because he plays fit or fold.

This is considered a thin bluff.

Your last question confuses me. Do you mean name one hand that would only be in both? Because that's probably impossible. You can 3bet almost any hand from the BTN against a CO open, and it could be profitable given optimal situations and it could still be considered a thin bluff. How thin it is depends on the situation. If you open from the UTG then I would say on average maybe I'd go as low as QJo in terms of thin value, but lower than that is probably considered too thin. It's the metagame factor that you can 3bet an infinitely vast range from the BTN vs a CO range (if he's weak and blinds are nitty and full stacked), because on average it will be very profitable for you to play in a 3bet pot against an extremely weak player (skill advantage counts for a lot more IP), than if you open a thin value range from UTG (since skill advantage counts a lot less oop).

EDIT:

Forgot to mention that you can open 56s UTG in nitty games as a thin bluff, so that would be one.

I just now understood what you were talking about with thin value and thin bluffs and how that came out of the 10.5% discussion. By 10.5% I meant that Hero raises 10.5% of hands from UTG - not which hand is in the bottom 10.5% of that 10.5% (which I guess KJo would be in).

I meant it on a much simpler level

What? Now I don't get your question at all... paraphrase please? XD

Which hands he might open UTG but will never 3 bet OTB
Which hands he might 3 bet OTB but will never open UTG
Which hands does he both 3 bet OTB and open UTG

I definitely understand what you mean here. People don't understand range as it correlates to the numbers they see in the HUD. They think well this guy is 10/7 over 40 hands, he's a nit. Well maybe or maybe not, but it doesn't have to be the top 10% of hands that he's opening. Maybe he's opening every pocket pair, and mid suited connectors, and doesn't open premium hands because he thinks people will fold. You have to witness the ranges yourself aka SD to see what types of hands people actually have in their range.

This is not so clear to me. One hand that would probably be pretty much only in UTG's range as opposed to what? I don't see a correlation...

Given these positional stats:

This player is opening 10.5% of hands from UTG and 3-betting 10.5% of hands on the button. The first 10.5% is very different from the second 10.5%.

Given that, what is one hand that is in the first (UTG) 10.5% but probably not in the second (BTN)? What about a hand that is in the second but not the first?

Finally ... which hand does this player probably both open UTG and 3-bet from the BTN?

OH so you mean like a venn diagram XD should have said this before lolol.

1. Small pp.
2. T8o.
3. KQs

The reason why small pp aren't 3bet OTB are because they have great implied odds and play well postflop. They are a medium value hand with good postflop potential (set mining).

The reason why T8o can bet 3bet OTB but not opened is because oop it has no intrinsic value. Opening UTG you should be opening mostly high and medium value hands. As opposed to 3betting on the BTN, you're better off flat calling your medium value hands and 3betting your high and low value hands (if villain is good, if villain is bad, you don't have to 3bet low value hands, and should instead add more strong medium value hands). The reason why you do this is to polarize your range between really strong hands and speculative hands that don't have intrinsic value, therefore it's harder to play his marginal medium value hands.

Hands that exist in both ranges have both intrinsic value and are high value hands (or top of the medium value range) aka KQs.

That's actually exactly what I was thinking about

This is a very, very well articulated answer.

Oh heil no.
I'm not at school so I have no mic I go back in 2 days though :O

Dude you seriously need to stop posting lol