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Old 01-05-2010, 08:38 AM   #1
verneer
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Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Online poker is evolving. What might have been true in 2006 at 200NL could be obsolete in 2010. The games are getting tougher because the average person is much more knowledgeable about the game. This means that uNL games are evolving as well.

So that's the title of the thread: "Moving Up Through uNL in 2010". This is where I plan to write about and discuss some of the bigger issues that I see with these games today from a few perspectives:

1. Reading and discussing tons of posts from the uNL forums
2. Sweating other regulars who play these stakes
3. Playing these stakes myself

I feel that all three of these categories are critical for developing a good macro view of the uNL landscape and each of them provides a unique insight into it. To elaborate:

1. Reading the HH's that are posted on the forums shows what thinking players think are tough spots for them. It also shows how thinking players think about the game at the different levels.

2. While a HH's is usually a frozen moment in time, a sweat session gives an insight into how a player handles the little things. Subtle leaks are exposed and situations which never get posted to the forums happen again and again. As a side note, if you've never done a sweat session with another person playing around the same limits as you (or higher), these are some of the best things you can do to grow as a player.

3. Should seem self-explanatory: It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback. I plan on playing the limits from 5NL to wherever I end up this December.

As I mentioned, this thread will contain general articles I plan to write about strategy and theory at the micros. I hope that the discussion that comes out of these will help you grow as a player. There is a caveat of course: Don't take everything written at face value - you have to think for yourself, and if you disagree with something, voice your disagreements. Debate is healthy and constructive.

I think that is enough to get going. As the king from Alice in Wonderland said, "Let's begin at the beginning, continue until the end, and then stop."



I'll start my next post with a discussion of using your HUD to develop a basic read on a player.

From Verneer's blog entry on why he's doing this:

What does it take to beat the micros and move up in stakes? I often hear players say such blanket statements as “play tight and value bet – that’s all you need to do to beat the micro donks”. A lot of people that talk about how easy it is to beat the micros haven’t played there in a while and they don’t have a good grasp about the changing nature of the games. There is more to beating the micros and moving beyond them than just that.

One of my good friends who used to crush 2/4 and 3/6 two-and-a-half years ago (has it been that long? Wow … ) just recently came back to poker. He started playing 10NL and 25NL just to get some rust out and remarked how much tougher and more competent both the donks and the regs are at the micros. There are so many more resources out there for those that want to improve.

Yet people still play really badly. As a frequent poster in the 2+2 and CardRunners micro stakes forums, I notice so many of the same mistakes on the forums – both in terms of HH’s played and advice given. As I play hands myself I notice leaks here and there in my own game – both in subtle analysis and overall play.

In the fall of 2009, I talked quite a bit with Taylor, and we both thought it would be cool to develop the ultimate resource for micro stakes players – a collection of videos, articles, and personal advice that takes a player from $100 to a five-figure bankroll. The best way to do it is to take the long-term approach, and I think that I’m in a unique position to do that.

For one, I love writing about poker and teaching. I have gotten countless e-mails and comments from people whose games I’ve helped and this makes me happy. As I mentioned above – I want to develop the ultimate resource for someone who wants to deposit $100 and run it up the right way – moving up within your bankroll and with limited risk of ruin. I know that this is much less sexy than taking the $100 and buying in for 50 BB’s at a 200PLO table and then going on a insane heater, but oh well. The teacher in me also love developing learning materials and resources. I have two advanced degrees in education and it is still my love, even if teaching in a secondary or post-secondary setting isn’t for me right now.

Secondly, I have an amazing poker support network comprised of winning players at all limits with who I talk poker with daily. They are a mixture of 25NL players all the way through 25/50 players and higher. I think that my years of working for CardRunners have given me access to unbelievable poker minds and this is something I can bring back to the micro and low stakes community. I plan to write about a lot of these discussions as they relate to not only playing at the micros but beyond.

Finally, I am sure a lot of people will say that I’m burning so much financial EV by trying to build a bankroll from $100 this year. This is true, but so what? My wife and I live a very frugal lifestyle and this gives us tons of freedom to do pretty much what we want. If we had $1,000,000, I don’t feel like our lifestyle wouldn’t be much different (we might eat out more … maybe). Thus, we are in a position to do what we love. For me, taking on this project is much more satisfying than grinding the low and mid-stakes all year. At the end of the year, I will have something much more concrete to show for it than just money.

This is already in the tl;dr category, but I don’t think I could have made it any shorter without explaining my motivation. I will discuss my overall plan and structure later in a follow-up post.

Oh ... and a picture of my bankroll as of 1/1/2010:


Last edited by udbrky; 02-02-2010 at 04:59 PM. Reason: inserting background info and index courtesy of ice_wolf
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:04 AM   #2
verneer
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Much thanks to Ice_W0lf for compiling this index.

Compilation of Moving up Through uNL in 2010.. Almost all links in the Moving-Up Thread have a discussion that follows the topic.

Updated through Post #2174

Poster quint44 is doing a pdf containing all of the links below.. it is still a work in progress that can be found HERE

Introduction

Moving Up Through uNL in 2010- Original Post by Verneer, describes his focus of the project
Verneer's Quick Bio

HUD Information

Your HUD and Reads- Verneer shows how stats can be misleading over small sample sizes.
My HUD (Heads Up Display) + Ranges and Playing The Player- Verneer goes over what hud numbers he uses, why he uses them and how the numbers correlate to our opponents ranges.

Positional Play

Under the Gun
Middle Position
Cutoff Part 1
Cutoff Part 2
Button Part 1
Button Part 2
Button Part 3

Verneer Articles and Thread

Primum Non Nocere, Part 1- Preflop compounds post-flop article.
A Balanced Range- What is it, and should we worry about it at the micros?
Common uNL Leaks, Part 1
Turning off Auto Pilot with JTs and QJs
Quick Article about A9s v lower suites aces
Red Line Graph Article
Verneer Asks DOGISHEAD to define ABC Poker
Verneer posts a picture of a table and asks Should I stay or should I go?- table selection discussion follows.
Assume the Position...- Verneer starts a discussion about IP v OOP
Show Me The Money! (Part 1)- Verneer describes the reasons to build pots
Calling Preflop to Make Moves Post-flop- Includes a link to some old videos with MDoranD
Dealing with a downswing Part 1-Verneer describes how to deal with losing sessions
Dealing with a downswing Part 2- Verneer continues with dealing with downswings
A Postflop Line Exercise Part 1
A Short Note about Tilt
Why Durrrr plays 86s UTG but you shouldn't- Verneer describes opening and calling ranges, and why we aren’t ready to be playing like durrrr.
Bluffing and Equity- Verneer walks us through different types of bluffs.
Verneer describes how to deal with losing sessions
Reflection - Verneer reflects some on his first attempt to move to 50nl.
Reflections Part 2- More reflections from Verneer, this time about his 2nd, and successful, shot at 50nl.
Thoughts on Moving up in Limits, The Monster and The Nute - Taming the monster and becoming the nute
The Monster and The Nute (Part 2) - More about these two creatures inside us.
A Great Spot to Raise - Exploiting people with a clear range looking for thin value.
Leak Finder Part 1 - Verneer compares his stats to gisiciliano’s, to find leaks in gis’s game.
Leak Finder Part 2 - Verneer looks for leaks in gisiciliano’s stats.
Leak Finder Part 3- Verneer reviews some of gisiciliano’s c-bets in order to plug some leaks.
Leak Finder Part 4 (labeled part 3) - Verneer looks at how gisiciliano plays against steals.
Have A Plan - Verneer tells us why we should have a plan before doing anything in a hand.


Hand History and Video Reviews

Hand #1 of Sweat Session # 1 with MagisterLudi.. followed by other interesting hands from the session
A Nutted Hand Part 1- River decision after we get there and villain overbets pot.
A Nutted Hand Part 2- How do we proceed on the turn with top set.
A Nutted Hand Part 3- Turn decision while holding the second nuts.. how to get value out of the hand.


YouTube Threads/Videos

Checking with TPTK to get more value on later streets
Part 1 Preview of a CardRunners Video with MDoranD on checking TPTK
Part 2 Preview of a CardRunners video with MDoranD on checking TPTK
What would you do?- Has a link to a video where we try and figure out what to do with a pre-flop decision holding 88
50NL: River Decision with Trips

uNL Hand Analysis with WishieWish- WishieWish and Verneer review a hand where Verneer flops second pair top kicker in position vs. an opponent with a wide range. The two review bet sizing and ranges on all streets.

uNL Hand Analysis w/WishieWish, Part 1 of 4- Pre-flop flop and turn
uNL Hand Analysis w/WishieWish, Part 2 of 4- Turn and River
uNL Hand Analysis w/WishieWish, Part 3 of 4- River and going back over the turn
uNL Hand Analysis w/WishieWish, Part 4 of 4- Going back over the turn and river

uNL Hand Analysis with BoyWonder- BoyWonder and Verneer review a hand where Verneer attempts to steal the blinds from the button and gets called by both blinds. The two review the bet sizing and ranges, and how our play changes as our hand improves on the turn.

uNL Hand Analysis w/BoyWonder, Part 1 of 3-Pre-flop and Flop Analysis
uNL Hand Analysis w/BoyWonder, Part 2 of 3- Turn Analysis
uNL Hand Analysis w/BoyWonder, Part 3 of 3- River Analysis

Miscellaneous

uNL 6-max sweat sessions
Boywonder's destroys 600nl
Boywonder beats up 1000nl
Verneer interviews ViniVici
Verneer Review Tommy Angelo's "Elements of Poker (links to Tommy's website)
Information about how to do a sweat session.
A humorous look at the rise and fall of Verneer during a hand.
$/hr vs # of tables comparison
Where in the World… (Update)- Where are Verneer’s fans posting from…

Milestones

Verneer Doubles his bankroll to $200!
Verneer breaks the $500 mark!
Verneer 10x’s his starting bankroll!
Verneer’s ascent continues as he hits $1,500!
Verneer hits $2,000! - He weebles and wobbles... but he hits $2,000!

Verneer announces that he has completed his rise through the micros... but he plans to continue teaching uNL'ers how to win money at the micros.


If there is any trouble with a link, pm Ice_W0lf.

Last edited by udbrky; 04-13-2010 at 08:44 PM.
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:10 AM   #3
Mark89er
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

I'll start my next post with a discussion of using your HUD to develop a basic read on a player.[/QUOTE]


u lied hehe
and gl
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:14 AM   #4
Re(oil
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

i plan to be moving up the uNL stakes this year with the hope of making it to NL100 with a comfortable bankroll by the end of this year.
im approxing my winrate to be between 2 or 3ptBB/100 so far so we'll see how it goes with a lot more volume this year.
in a couple weeks ill be 6 tabling NL25 i think at the rate im going.

iv watched loads of videos and usually go through my hand histories in particular the dodgy hands ive noted down on sticky note as i go along.
never done a sweat session. dont know anybody who plays poker.

look forward to reading/posting
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Old 01-05-2010, 09:28 AM   #5
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

i'd def be interested in a sweat session as i know there r many leaks to my game that i probably wouldnt pick up on unless pointed out by someone w/ more experience (not necessarily only someone w/ more experience but u know wat i mean). how exactly do u go about these? IM ur hole cards to sweater (or is it sweatee) every hand?
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Old 01-05-2010, 10:00 AM   #6
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by verneer View Post
"Oh no! Someone just butchered a hand!"

Spoiler:
wow... nh
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Old 01-05-2010, 10:27 AM   #7
verneer
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Your HUD and Reads

We often use our HUD to gain some insight into our opponents. We use that information to develop an idea of their ranges. With the player pool at the micros so large, your HUD is like your recon team - giving you early glimpses of an unknown opponent. But what exactly does it tell you?

Let's examine a player with a made of screen name "PkrPlayer" by adding more and more to what we know about him and observe how this information converges. Let's also make some generalizations at each stage. The stages will grow exponentially.

After Two Orbits:



So after two orbits, the PkrPlayer has only played one hand. We can guess that he's not one-tabling because most one-tabling players at the micros don't like folding 11 out of 12 times. Could this guy possibly be one of the multi-tabling nits? We'll need more info.

After 25 Hands:



Hmmm ... all signs seem to point to a multi-tabling nit at this point. He is folding a lot. 25 hands is still a small sample, so let's see what happens in the next 25.

After 50 Hands:



Still no change ... let's give him the light-blue tag for "nit". After 50 hands, we've yet to see PkrPlayer go to showdown.

After 100 Hands:



Given that his VPIP and PFR are fairly close and that he's 3-bet a few times, we can infer that he's at least has a general idea about opening ranges. We shouldn't expect this player to open K2o UTG or do much limping. When he enters pots, he is probably going to be doing so aggressively.

After 250 Hands:



Now these numbers seem to be more of the standard TAG player. He is still going into pots aggressively by open raising and 3-betting his fair share. Doesn't seem to be getting out of line. We've observed him play three hands to the river and two of them went to showdown.

In Hand 1, he opened QQ BvB and bet/3-bet a J84r board vs. a 45BB stack who min-raised him on that board. He then shoved the turn and won the stack.

In Hand 2, he flatted a reg's UTG raise from MP with AQo. On a flop of 548 he checked back when checked to. He checked the turn when the T came and then checked the river when the 5 came and won the pot.

So he seems to play straight-forward so far. Nothing that jumps out.

After 500 Hands:



It seems like this guy is going to be 3-betting more than just QQ+, AK (which comprises of 2.6% of hands). We get our first indication of this when the following hand occurs:

Hand 3: UTG is playing very loosely (51/31/6 over 130 hands) and is the mark at the table ATM. He is sitting on 200 BB's. He opens and PkrPlayer 3-bets him standard. He has UTG covered. CO, a regular with 100 BB's, flats. UTG flats as well.

The flop comes 5 2 K and gets checked through. The turn is the 7 and UTG checks again. Now PkrPlayer bets about 70% and BTN shoves. PkrPlayer call and flips over 6 8 for a monster draw while CO flips over a slow-played A A. All draws miss as the 7 hits the river and CO wins the pot.

This hand tells us a lot about PkrPlayer. First of all, he is not afraid to isolate the fish in position with marginal holdings. Secondly, he doesn't fire blindly postflop with weak draws multi-way. Lastly, he plays his equity for what it's worth.

After 1,000 Hands:



He is definitely a player that mixes up it up both preflop and postflop. Competent and aggressive.

We observe the following Hand: TAG opens on the button with effective 100 BB stacks. PkrPlayer calls from the BB and c/c a 33J flop. The turn which brings the A goes check/check. The river, the 8 also check through. PkrPlayer has 99 and BTN shows down TJ.

Hand 5: We also see him flat A6 BvB vs. a regular who opens for 4x. PkrPlayer checks back the 99A flop, checks again when the 9 turns, and calls a river bet on the 2 to chop it vs. A2.

So after about a 1000 hands we seem to have a player who is aggressive but not spewey post-flop. He mixes up his play and is definitely thinking about ranges. He c-bets most of the time and barrels often. He definitely 3-bets light, but seems to do it in position and wtih a polarized range.

Let's hit "Fast Forward":

After 2,500 Hands:



After 5,000 Hands:



After 10,000 Hands:



After 25,000 Hands:



What does this show us? It simply shows that our HUD doesn't tell us all that much about a player even after 100 hands. What it DOES show us is if someone is completely out of line. In this case, PkrPlayer is far from a nit, but in fact a competent multi-tabling sLAG.

It also shows how crucial showdown histories are for us to get a sense of how the player plays and how critical those are to playing vs. this player in the long run.

For the purposes of our discussions, we are going to not make too many assumptions about a player's preflop range until we have a few hundred hands on them or postflop tendencies until we see multiple showdowns from them.

Final Thoughts:

I'm going to leave close this with a hand I played at 5NL vs. a player whom I had playing 14/13/1 over 100 hands at the time:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

SB ($4.64)
BB ($6.56)
UTG ($5.21)
MP ($7.82)
CO ($5.97)
Hero (Button) ($5.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
2 folds, CO bets $0.17, Hero raises to $0.58, 2 folds, CO raises to $1.30, Hero raises to $5.30 (All-In), CO calls $4

Flop: ($10.67) 3, K, 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($10.67) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($10.67) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $10.67 | Rake: $0.71

Results:
Hero had Q, Q (two pair, Queens and threes).
CO had A, Q (one pair, threes).
Outcome: Hero won $9.96

Moral: 14/11's don't always 4-bet KK+ nor are they truly 14/11's after just 100 hands ...
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:11 AM   #8
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

To add to Verneers point, I was 12 tabling last night after a slight nap and in a good mood. But more importantly I was in the same mindset for all tables. So happened i played about 60 or so hands at each table As I was wrapping up my session I had hands going on two tables that i set aside. my VPIP and Pfr on table 1 was 42 35 and the second table it was 3 3. I wasn't nitting it up or doing anything different on table two it was just the way the card ran and a little bit how the other players where at the tables. On table one most would be putting a Lagtard tag on me and table 2 there putting MMTing nit. While the truth being somewhere inbetween.

This I think really show's insignificat Hud reads are under 100 hands. But also I think it is important for you to see your own HUD stats on each table so you can keep track of what your image really is instead of what you precieve it to be.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:22 AM   #9
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Does this mean HUDs don't really have sufficient informational value under around 7500 hands?

Given the fact that you won't find many 5NL "regs" who play there as long (as the better players move up rather quickly, and the fish tend to come and go in spurts), does this also imply that your HUD probably doesn't really start to pay off until, say, 25NL, where you see more regs and get more sufficient volume samples?

Of course that's merely theoretical in posing such a question, (plus I don't use a HUD, but probably will this year)... Just wanted to know what you thought about this.

Also, regarding that hand, at 5NL, what's going to be your PF shove calling range vs. 10NL vs 25NL? Do you know that yet?

And lastly... Have you already gone through the ranks? Or is this your first trek through uNL?
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:23 AM   #10
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Thanks for the info it's very helpful. I liked your AKo thread and will be following these threads.
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Old 01-05-2010, 11:42 AM   #11
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

I appreciate this article, good job. The only type of player HUD can recognize fairly quickly is a maniac/fish...
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:29 PM   #12
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iron Mic Titan View Post
Does this mean HUDs don't really have sufficient informational value under around 7500 hands?
HUDs are useful to see someones more blatant leaks such as 3betting too much/too little, large gap between vpip/pfr, always cbetting any flop, you get the idea. Against a more competent player you need postflop reads which require thousands of hands
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Old 01-05-2010, 12:46 PM   #13
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ligic View Post
HUDs are useful to see someones more blatant leaks such as 3betting too much/too little, large gap between vpip/pfr, always cbetting any flop, you get the idea. Against a more competent player you need postflop reads which require thousands of hands
pretty much this, all the hud is really for is to help quickly see his leaks!

ie, a player even over 50 hands is running like 60/0, we know hes a passive fish, so we expliot this by bet bet bet with top pair, and instant muck to reraises!

tho i have to admit, ppl dont really know how to use stats, and they forget they are interconnected to each other

hes a 30/20 with 70% fold to cbet and 0% fold to turn bet, they automatically bet the turn because this stat is 0%, but think about y this stat is 0%?

also, as bugla whale has said, if a fish limps, a reg iso, and another reg squeezes, dont look at his 3bet stat unless you have a 3bet stat for this exact spot- which u dont!

i use my hud alot to determine player types, but i dont use the stats and go bla bla because this number is 23% but if it was 24% i would do bla bla!

play the player
play his range
play the community cards
and play ur cards!

dont become a stats freak!
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Old 01-05-2010, 01:07 PM   #14
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

HUD becomes slightly useful after even 5hands, somewhat reliable at 500hands and really good after 5000.

ANY information is better than none but as verneer showed from 100hands to 250 the player changed from TAG to LAGGish.

Even at 200000 hands there is a major problem with stats.
Any1 remember the thread about a fulltilt reg who played real solid like 14/12 for a good winrate over 12months somewhat overnight adjusted his play to LAGgy and just crushed took like 3months before other regs realised how much his game had changed, and how little they had adjusted.

Thx for your article verneer il be following your progress as im doing the same thing left $4 in the account and started at $2NL
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Old 01-05-2010, 01:38 PM   #15
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iron Mic Titan View Post
Also, regarding that hand, at 5NL, what's going to be your PF shove calling range vs. 10NL vs 25NL? Do you know that yet?
Well ... this is not as much limit-dependent as player dependent. 4-handed, I'm fine stacking of with QQ+, AK vs. a relative unknown.

Quote:
And lastly... Have you already gone through the ranks? Or is this your first trek through uNL?
Yeah, although I think I think the lowest I played the first time around was 25NL. My old blog (which goes back to Oct 24th, 2006), has me playing 50NL+
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Old 01-05-2010, 02:09 PM   #16
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

I think this thread will be pretty sweet. Nice work Verneer.
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Old 01-05-2010, 02:13 PM   #17
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Good start to your series
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Old 01-05-2010, 02:22 PM   #18
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Huds are mainly useful for quickly identifying the loose passives, aggrotards and all other fish varieties imo. A stat of 45/12 or 80/20 or 30/0 and such after 15 hands will be pretty much spot on indicative of what kind of player this is. This guy is no tag. It becomes more tricky when you start trying to nail down regs with few hands. I ran probably about as cold as I ever have last night over 300 hands on each table and was like 17/14 average and only 3b about 4%. I am nowhere near that nitty. I was also not meshing well with flops so I looked a bit weak post flop at times.
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Old 01-05-2010, 04:34 PM   #19
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian J View Post
Huds are mainly useful for quickly identifying the loose passives, aggrotards and all other fish varieties imo. A stat of 45/12 or 80/20 or 30/0 and such after 15 hands will be pretty much spot on indicative of what kind of player this is. This guy is no tag. It becomes more tricky when you start trying to nail down regs with few hands. I ran probably about as cold as I ever have last night over 300 hands on each table and was like 17/14 average and only 3b about 4%. I am nowhere near that nitty. I was also not meshing well with flops so I looked a bit weak post flop at times.
A lot of good points here. After 3-4 orbits we can discern the 80/65 player from the 40/0 player from someone who seems like he has a preflop style which might be alright. That said, HUDs become really useful vs. regulars once you have 1,000+ hands on them - especially if you use positional stats on your HUD:



If you have a few thousand hands on a reg and look at him positionally (example below) in your HEM, you can learn an insane amount about their ranges and thus develop a good counter-strategy vs. this type of player.

Example:



What do these numbers tell you about this player's ranges?
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Old 01-05-2010, 04:47 PM   #20
benjamin barker
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

guys dont tard up the thread with twenty bad jokes for every verneer post plz
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Old 01-05-2010, 04:47 PM   #21
fuseball
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by verneer View Post
A lot of good points here. After 3-4 orbits we can discern the 80/65 player from the 40/0 player from someone who seems like he has a preflop style which might be alright. That said, HUDs become really useful vs. regulars once you have 1,000+ hands on them - especially if you use positional stats on your HUD:



If you have a few thousand hands on a reg and look at him positionally (example below) in your HEM, you can learn an insane amount about their ranges and thus develop a good counter-strategy vs. this type of player.

Example:



What do these numbers tell you about this player's ranges?

That hes positionally aware. Likes to put pressure on when in position with a wider range. Oop his range is stronger and more aggressive.

Well thats what i took from it.
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Old 01-05-2010, 05:06 PM   #22
thac
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

For people asking for sweat sessions, use this thread, don't post about it in here.
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Old 01-05-2010, 05:29 PM   #23
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

First thing that really jumps out at me is BTN 3bet % is basically his UTG range. So any hand i would 3bet his UTG range with i should be 4 betting. Should also be 3 betting a huge range against his btn and CO raises when i am in the blinds as he folds a ton an probably c/f some more on the flop.

He also defends his BB pretty aggressively 3 betting. So some room to 4 bet bluff him there.
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Old 01-05-2010, 06:56 PM   #24
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Hey verneer, sweet post. One minor disagreement about your stats post. In some cases we can get reliable reads after less than 100 hands. This has already been discussed to some degree. But in general, it seems that it would be much less likely that 'PkrPlayer' is going to evolve into some sLAG after those first 50-100 hands.

Sure, I guess your message is that we might be wrong about a player after less than 500-1000 hands, but we never have absolute certainty. When we have to decide at the table whether this guy who is 8/8 over a small sample is likely to be stealing from the CO or simply raising with a good hand, it makes more sense to assume he isn't betraying his stats *much* over a moderate sample. Sure, we can be wrong, but that's poker right?

In short, some "instareads" are more reliable than others. Classic thread (warning: math) for those who haven't read it: http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...age=37&fpart=1
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Old 01-05-2010, 07:01 PM   #25
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Re: Moving Up Through uNL in 2010

Quote:
Originally Posted by uppie_ View Post
First thing that really jumps out at me is BTN 3bet % is basically his UTG range.
I would say they should be and are very different, even though the % might be the same.
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