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Old 10-12-2017, 07:47 AM   #1
andy19137
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Middle set, multiway on wet flop

Just wondering what people think about the way the whole hand has been played. If we were 100bb deep I would probably have taken a different approach. I wasnt overly worried about the bb after the way the flop went but MP was still a concern.

BB 31/0 AF1 over 13 hands
MP 55/45 AF4 over 11 hands
Both effectively unknowns, I did stick around to see the result which I can reveal later if there is interest.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 214.4 BB (VPIP: 11.43, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 36)
Hero (SB): 251.5 BB
BB: 138 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
UTG: 102 BB (VPIP: 26.04, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 97)
MP: 204 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 45.45, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 11)
CO: 247.3 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8 8

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) 9 8 5
Hero checks, BB bets 4.8 BB, MP raises to 21.6 BB, Hero calls 21.6 BB, BB calls 16.8 BB

Turn: (72.3 BB, 3 players) 3
Hero checks, BB bets 34.5 BB, MP raises to 179.9 BB and is all-in, fold, BB calls 79.4 BB and is all-in

River: (300.1 BB, 2 players) Q
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Old 10-12-2017, 09:35 AM   #2
simplelessons
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

I think we have to raise flop multi-way. MP can have lots of overpairs, flush draws, JT, etc. that can still continue if we raise. I'm going to like 55-60bb and not folding to a shove. Sometimes one of them will have 67 or an overplayed JT that gets there but our hand is too good to do anything else with when we have <15 hands on both players.
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:17 AM   #3
samba
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

The stats are virtually completely irrelevant so should have no impact on decisions through this hand. I also think you have to be raising the flop. Overcalling and raising both appear strong but thats perfectly fine. Flatting here from the sb can cause you all sorts of problems on the turn. It can get checked through a bunch, you are unsure of whats happening a bunch.... When you overcall I don't see you ever leading turn to alleviate this problem and not sure you should either. There is also an option to donk this flop yourself but you can never really have the nuts (or at least shouldn't) so you are capped at a set (although having a capped range at 10nl is going to go largely unnoticed and not punished (largely because most arent ever folding a set so it would be fruitless to try and exploit sets). So to me I would raise flops with all my sets here and strongly consider folding 55 to reshoves and calling off 99 and 88.
As it is, on the turn.... I'm a little lost myself. I think I probably fold as well and get pissed off when they turn up with an overpair and two pair a percentage of the time but I think generally you are beat. I wouldn't entirely dismiss the bb having a strong hand btw. I think largely he is weaker, but I have seen strength here before. I'm also interested if mp is capable of raising 99 here? I see lots of players here try and trap with top set on a wet board. And out of interest how do you proceed with your draws and two pairs etc? Do you even get here with many beyond QJs or do you show up with AJs and 98s sometimes too?

Last edited by samba; 10-12-2017 at 10:25 AM.
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:22 AM   #4
andy19137
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

If we had been HU then I think I would for sure lean towards raising flop. I didnt because I wanted to see how the board developed on the turn and also what they both did. I think we should also raise if MP flatted the donk on the flop. I admit he would also raise all his overpairs so we should still be ahead but if he has an overpair then we arent overly worried about 95% of turn cards (in this case I think more turns would help BB).

The turn is a brick which is good for us but I think the action that follows probably means we are beat (or beating 55) either that or MP is vastly overplaying an overpair which I admit is possible at 10nl. I can sometimes be a bit nitty tho!
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:01 AM   #5
BackdoorQuadsDraw
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

I'm shoving flop here, there are two specific combos you lose to, if you're beat then it's a cooler. MP can have an overpair or nut FD. By flatting you just give yourself the chance to get outdrawn by potentially 2 players and lose the chance to lead turn, essentially giving 2 cards to MP hit his FD potentially.

By shoving you still have some FE and I think you're going to be good most of the time here if called. Sucks if he shows up with 99 but set over set happens sometimes, that's poker
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:06 AM   #6
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

I see what you are all saying. It wont make much of a difference I guess but 67 beats us too. Do we think there is much FE left at 10nl when someone raises post flop in this sort of situation? In my experience the population can be pretty sticky. That being said I am not saying I think we need (or maybe even want) FE here.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:24 AM   #7
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

For sure both have 76 in their range. And no, fold equity is not really relevant imo. If they both fold equity then thats fine also but I think oop this becomes really awkward as the hand develops past the flop. I think if you were in position a flat becomes much more viable.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:32 PM   #8
BackdoorQuadsDraw
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

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Originally Posted by andy19137 View Post
I see what you are all saying. It wont make much of a difference I guess but 67 beats us too. Do we think there is much FE left at 10nl when someone raises post flop in this sort of situation? In my experience the population can be pretty sticky. That being said I am not saying I think we need (or maybe even want) FE here.
Sorry I meant 2 specific hands, not combos, so yea 99 and 76.

I don't see how FE isn't relevant here, you're 200 BB deep. You shove and he may fold something like JJ or even the NFD as he probably knows he has doesn't have outs+overcards at that point. If you flat and a spade comes, you have to fold and you wish you'd shoved. If a blank comes and someone shoves, you're calling anyway.
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Old 10-12-2017, 03:27 PM   #9
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

But by that logic you are folding out all hands that you beat and only getting called by hands that beat you. For sure you are fine if hands like the nfd fold etc and that is a perfectly good outcome, but I don't think you should be shoving with the intention of utilising fold equity. I think that is an added bonus of a value shove.
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Old 10-12-2017, 04:00 PM   #10
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

Yeah if I shoved I wouldn't want him to fold his overpairs or expect him to fold his fd's. I do agree that FE becomes more relevant in spots with 200bb stacks, but a lot of 10nl players will go with their draws even this deep I reckon. The concern I had on the flop is the raise. Sure he can have overs or a draw but then I am happy to see a turn and fold on a bad card to action or even a 'good one' as happens here and we see another substantial donk and a shove. If I was hoping with AA or even nfd I'm not sure I would be taking his line. A very wet flop and two other players obviously interested I think it's too likely AA is just not good in at least one spot. Again I am a nit tho and I think you are both making very valid points. Having said all that he probably wouldn't even fold AA so maybe that is an argument for shoving flop but I don't like risking 200 hoping for what would be a bad call on his part - even tho its probably likely
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:22 PM   #11
BackdoorQuadsDraw
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

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Originally Posted by samba View Post
But by that logic you are folding out all hands that you beat and only getting called by hands that beat you. For sure you are fine if hands like the nfd fold etc and that is a perfectly good outcome, but I don't think you should be shoving with the intention of utilising fold equity. I think that is an added bonus of a value shove.

What I meant was something like AsKs might call, it might not. Bottom set is calling, KK+ is calling and maybe QQ. There are definitely hands that can be behind hero and call here.

For that reason I think the FE consideration is still valid. If we flat call, AsKs has 25% raw equity against us. KK has 13%. If he'll fold AsKs 50% of the time, we have an additional 12.5% equity in the hand by shoving. Whether we shove to get folds or for value is irrelevant, FE is still a factor in the decision here. To flat call and give yourself the chance to get pushed off the hand when a spade, 6 or 7 comes is lol bad IMO. What about a J,Q,K or A? Are you still happy you flatted given villain has another set in his range now? If the turn blanks and he shoves and shows 99 or 76s you were going to lose anyway. I just think you let draws/overpairs catch you up by flatting, and the hands you were behind still beat you. After villain 5x-raises the flop there are no good turn cards, he is going to bomb it with his entire range on any blank turn and you will have a tougher decision and much less FE, for me this hand is a shove or fold scenario on the flop, I don't think you can flat and he isn't folding to a cold 3 bet after 5x-ing.

I'd be interested to see this spot put through cardrunners actually, with reasonable ranges. I'm still convinced shoving is the highest EV line here, especially against 2 opponents.

Last edited by BackdoorQuadsDraw; 10-12-2017 at 11:50 PM.
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Old 10-13-2017, 05:55 AM   #12
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

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Originally Posted by simplelessons View Post
I think we have to raise flop multi-way. MP can have lots of overpairs, flush draws, JT, etc. that can still continue if we raise. I'm going to like 55-60bb and not folding to a shove. Sometimes one of them will have 67 or an overplayed JT that gets there but our hand is too good to do anything else with when we have <15 hands on both players.
I like this. You're putting yourself in a harder position when you flat, but I do understand your logic and I sure as hell respect the fold.

What hands did they have? I'm guessing that BB had a FD and couldn't fold and MP had probably an over pair?
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Old 10-13-2017, 08:14 AM   #13
andy19137
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

Believe it or not but BB had kings(!) and MP ended up with 99. I hope my feelings about the hand aren't just results oriented but I value the input on this thread already
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Old 10-13-2017, 11:26 AM   #14
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

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Originally Posted by BackdoorQuadsDraw View Post
What I meant was something like AsKs might call, it might not. Bottom set is calling, KK+ is calling and maybe QQ. There are definitely hands that can be behind hero and call here.

For that reason I think the FE consideration is still valid. If we flat call, AsKs has 25% raw equity against us. KK has 13%. If he'll fold AsKs 50% of the time, we have an additional 12.5% equity in the hand by shoving. Whether we shove to get folds or for value is irrelevant, FE is still a factor in the decision here. To flat call and give yourself the chance to get pushed off the hand when a spade, 6 or 7 comes is lol bad IMO. What about a J,Q,K or A? Are you still happy you flatted given villain has another set in his range now? If the turn blanks and he shoves and shows 99 or 76s you were going to lose anyway. I just think you let draws/overpairs catch you up by flatting, and the hands you were behind still beat you. After villain 5x-raises the flop there are no good turn cards, he is going to bomb it with his entire range on any blank turn and you will have a tougher decision and much less FE, for me this hand is a shove or fold scenario on the flop, I don't think you can flat and he isn't folding to a cold 3 bet after 5x-ing.

I'd be interested to see this spot put through cardrunners actually, with reasonable ranges. I'm still convinced shoving is the highest EV line here, especially against 2 opponents.
I agree with you entirely about the raise Backdoor, I think flatting becomes very difficult out of position. But my concern is the FE conundrum. By shoving, which is definitely viable and I think in some situations preferable depending on your opponents, then to be profitable we are relying on him calling with his flush draws (and/or overpairs). We don't want them to fold. It's his mistake to call them off with the price we are setting and that is only going to make us money in the long run. For example if he calls off with only 99, 76 and 55 we are losing around $7 on a shove. Add just AsKs and it becomes a profitable shove. Add more flush draws and it becomes increasingly profitable. Our job is to set the price to force a mistake, nothing more. If by shoving he plays perfectly by only continuing with made hands that beat us (mostly) then shoving cannot be correct. If by raising a standard amount and responding to their continued actions alleviates that problem then surely that becomes the appropriate line?
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Old 10-13-2017, 12:38 PM   #15
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Re: Middle set, multiway on wet flop

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I agree with you entirely about the raise Backdoor, I think flatting becomes very difficult out of position. But my concern is the FE conundrum. By shoving, which is definitely viable and I think in some situations preferable depending on your opponents, then to be profitable we are relying on him calling with his flush draws (and/or overpairs). We don't want them to fold. It's his mistake to call them off with the price we are setting and that is only going to make us money in the long run. For example if he calls off with only 99, 76 and 55 we are losing around $7 on a shove. Add just AsKs and it becomes a profitable shove. Add more flush draws and it becomes increasingly profitable. Our job is to set the price to force a mistake, nothing more. If by shoving he plays perfectly by only continuing with made hands that beat us (mostly) then shoving cannot be correct. If by raising a standard amount and responding to their continued actions alleviates that problem then surely that becomes the appropriate line?
I actually think my maths here was incorrect and a shove is profitable even should he call with only 99 and 76s. However we definitely prosper from him calling with flush draws on top of this. But some of these ev calculations are a little new to me as I come from a live background so mistakes are possible again!
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