Villain 33/0(9)

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $24.55
BTN: $5.20
SB: $15.80
BB: $15.35
UTG: $12.50

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with K K
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.55) 9 2 Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB calls $1.80, BB folds

Turn: ($6.15) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.40, SB raises to $9.50, Hero....SB has 3 bucks and change left after the raise

I'd just put him AI, he's a shortie and his range prob include a lot of hands you beat. Not even close imo

This is Baluga. Fold.

Are you serious? Villain started the hand with 60bbs and it's like $8 more to win a tortal of $23. He could easily have been "slowplaying" AQ or something on the flop.

I don't know if I'm way off here, but I'm stacking off every time in this spot.

I am guessing this is FT. I hate the .80 preflop raise. Thats why I like the Stars scroller as 2 clicks makes it $1 preflop. That way, with KK, your flop bet is now $2.8 and your turn bet essentially pot commits you.

As played, shove.

Don't fold ever. All in. He's short. Queens, sets, 7d8d. It doesn't matter. I'm really starting to believe the games have changed enough that Baluga doesn't apply as much as it used to, I expect QT+ to be a massive part of his range. Even underpairs to the Queen like TT, 88. Or just air tbh (very small part).

I'd raise to about 4x preflop, but as played it's an easy shove. KK pretty much crushes the range he could have here.

Is 9 the agression factor? Please stick it in you are so far ahead of his range.

how's games changed?i think if they changed ,they got harder and not softer

if games get softer than i can see that Baluga get outdated,cause ppl start c/r with crap,but i don't think this is it

and ,baluga-shmaluga,he short and we pot-commited get it in

Villain is loose-passive. Against a 50/20/5 donkey i'm sticking it in, too, but this guy is 33/0. With AQ he would either bet the 2-diamond flop, or he'd checkcall down, since he is passive and/or puts OP on AK.

And if he was the type to semibluff-raise a FD, he'd have done so on the flop. Check-call flop, check-minraise turn, from a loose-passive player this means your overpair is no good. Fold.

33/0 is preflop. It doesn't necessarily reflect his postflop tendencies.

Besides all that, even if his range is {sets, JJ+, AQ} you still have too much equity to fold. He's just too short to make this a tough decision. I don't think it makes sense to shrink his range tighter than that without a very good read.

As I'm reading the op, the stats are over a 9 hand sample and consequently mean nothing

$.85 is standard PSR.

Can someone explain this Baluga theory to me? Heard it every once and a while since I joined. I'm assuming its the nuts?

No, it states that a c/r on turn means top pair is no good iirc. This is a little different I don't think it quite applies (I'd fold KQ tho).

It still sucks as a preflop raise size tho - WE HAVE KINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGS - thats like the 2nd best hand you can get dealt - we want to raise as much preflop as we think will get called. If we think villain will put it all-in preflop when we open push then not pushing is a bad play....

Certain hands like big pairs and AK AQ (hands that frequently flop a TPGK+ type of hand) want as much monies going in preflop as possible. Ideally you want the pot size on the flop to be no less than 1/4 of the effective stacksize on the flop. (see the recent Matt/Sunny PNL book for more in depth reasoning and stuff)

As played shove the turn - he's a shortstack and our equity is waaaay too good to fold here. We only need to be good about 1 time in 4 to break even.

See the SSNL Sticky collection - the Poohbah post that spawned the theory is in there.

*all* of the stickies in here and in SSNL ought to be required reading.

Thanks V.

One thing that stuck out to me on this hand was that villain didn't raise AI. For some reason my gut often tells me this is strength since they dont want to run you off with an AI bet. Maybe I'm thinking too much into it.

I don't agree. This may be true against some micro players. But for the most part people will begin picking up on your tendencies when you raise x with KK, y with 55, z with 78s and so on. I haven't seen a CR video which defends your reasoning here. I've only watched the ssnl vids, but then again those are the stakes I'm playing.

I think this is especially exploitable as you move up. Much love Matrix. I just think its an issue of transparency against an aware villain.

BTW i dont know how much a villian is going to call me with KK preflop when I'm first in the pot and I dont have 5k hands logged on him. Wishful thinking but I can't see their hole cards or read minds when I'm against a new opponent every session.

I'm sure you'll come up with a perfectly worded defense/flame, but I feel obligated to defend my reasoning.

meh - there are several schools of thought on preflop raising.

2+2 books (the NL:TAP and PNL ones) adhere to the mantra that different preflop situations require different sized raises.

I agree with this.

Other people tell you to only stick to one raise size (PSR, 4bb+1 etc etc) to diusguise your hands.

a few things about this disguise IME.

i) the majority of the villains we play wouldn't notice if you raised QQ+ to 10bb and everything else to 4bb

ii) you are costing yourself money in the long run if you raise too big with a sc/small pair or don't raise enough with a premium hand - implied odds rule NL poker for the most part - they depend on STACKSIZES we have no control over stacksizes aside from our own but we can control the bet sizes and in effect the implied odds we offer villains

iii) It's very hard to read lots of different sized raises preflop from a villains perspective - if someimes you raise 3bb sometimes 4bb sometimes 6bb sometimes 10bb and you are using your position, the specific opponent you are isolating, your cards, the type of hand you'll normally flop and other stuff combined to choose the raise size and not JUST the rank value of the 2 cards you got - this is just as hard to figure out maybe even harder thana static single preflop raise amount.


Having said all that.

there is nothing inherently wrong with a fixed preflop raise size, it might well be better to use such a strategy and spend more time working on postflop stuff first.

It's an OK strategy - but there are better ones.

You are completely free to spin things around mid game to catch people out - and suddenly switch from raising x with KK and y with 77 to raising y with KK and z with 77 for example.

I don't agree that raising different sized amounts preflop makes my preflop game very transparent - YMMV.

Thats not a good enough reason to not make a bigger preflop raise to see if he calls... (you might have other better reasons not to raise bigger which is fine - thats just not one of them )

I respect as well as appreciate this response. It's nice to learn other strategies and pov for specific situations. I also agree there are multiple schools of thought of this. I learned the PSR rule through CR and have thus stuck with it.

FWIW I haven't read any of the 2+2 books.

nothing wrong there - it stimulates discussion which is goot.

If you've not read any 2+2 books I'd recommend the Professional NL Holdem one that came out recently above all the others for someone who has the basics down for the most part.