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Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff?

06-24-2019 , 08:38 PM
Plan is to bluff and value bet Jx river. I think I x/c a Queen river and give up on the rest. Thoughts?

Solver's like to bluff with 2nd/3rd pairs to block villain's strongest continuing range

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
HERO ($5.90) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 22.4% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 10.7% | Hands: 81787]
BTN ($5.00) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 38.8% | 3-Bet: 8.8% | Hands: 804]
SB ($10.27) [VPIP: 18.7% | PFR: 17.5% | AGG: 34.7% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 2015]
BB ($5.00) [VPIP: 21.8% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 30.9% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 2426]

Dealt to Hero: Q J

HERO Raises To $0.10, BTN Calls $0.10, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.15 effective]
Flop ($0.27): A J 6
HERO Bets $0.20 (Rem. Stack: 5.60), BTN Calls $0.20 (Rem. Stack: 4.70)

Turn ($0.67): A J 6 8
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.38 (Rem. Stack: 4.32), HERO Raises To $1.21 (Rem. Stack: 4.39)
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 10:47 PM
How about x flop?
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flpmethntsdlr
How about x flop?
+1, but from what i have seen, he doesn't like xing any flops when he was pfr.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
No
12,321 posts and 12,350 words.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flpmethntsdlr
How about x flop?
Yeah Xing flop is definitely an option. I think it is a mixed strategy. I should X this combo more than I bet for sure but I don't think betting is sub optimal.

Thoughts OTT?
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
No
What types of hands would you like for a XR turn bluff here?
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
What types of hands would you like for a XR turn bluff here?
I honestly am not sure as I probably don't incorporate it into my game much at all. I will run a sim and post results before I go to bed.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:37 PM
x flop and not close
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yasuo
x flop and not close
So you never have trips OTT when the turn comes a Jack?
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
So you never have trips OTT when the turn comes a Jack?
Before I post the results of the sim I ran, I'd like to respond to this comment and state that you aren't going to always have the nuts/hit every card OTT and trying to create a strategy in a way that you do is likely expending energy that could be used solving more important parts of the game. It should be noted, that generally speaking in instances where you are at a nut disadvantage the other player is supposed to use quite large sizings to exploit your disadvantage and this just doesn't happen enough at micros/low stakes to really be much of a concern.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-24-2019 , 11:59 PM
I inputted a CO RFI range of 27.8% and a BTN CC range of 4% that is heavily randomized, but contains a higher proportion of more middling hands. See below for the ranges/constraints. These ranges are based on pseudo-gto ranges and don't necessarily match those of what the BTN range might be. If you'd supply a BTN range you'd like me to utilize I can re-do the sim. Please note, that in my database the average btn cc vs a co rfi is around 15%.

CO RFI:



BTN CC:



Constraints: (very simple)



Results for OOP RFI:



Due to the initial c-bet strategy already deviating heavily from what you're likely doing I'm not going to look at the turn strat.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:07 AM
Yeah check flop, call small bets on the turn but check raising achieves nothing, a worse hand is never calling not enough draws to really justify a raise here. Just call, hope he shuts down on the river, or bets small and bet a bluff
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaikiller
Yeah check flop, call small bets on the turn but check raising achieves nothing, a worse hand is never calling not enough draws to really justify a raise here. Just call, hope he shuts down on the river, or bets small and bet a bluff
It's a bluff. I don't expect a worse hand to call.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
Before I post the results of the sim I ran, I'd like to respond to this comment and state that you aren't going to always have the nuts/hit every card OTT and trying to create a strategy in a way that you do is likely expending energy that could be used solving more important parts of the game. It should be noted, that generally speaking in instances where you are at a nut disadvantage the other player is supposed to use quite large sizings to exploit your disadvantage and this just doesn't happen enough at micros/low stakes to really be much of a concern.
I appreciate the comment. I think the Solvers prefer the Jxs with a BDFD draw at a mixed frequency. I should probably just be checking all my Jx off suit hands though.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
I inputted a CO RFI range of 27.8% and a BTN CC range of 4% that is heavily randomized, but contains a higher proportion of more middling hands. See below for the ranges/constraints. These ranges are based on pseudo-gto ranges and don't necessarily match those of what the BTN range might be. If you'd supply a BTN range you'd like me to utilize I can re-do the sim. Please note, that in my database the average btn cc vs a co rfi is around 15%.

CO RFI:



BTN CC:



Constraints: (very simple)



Results for OOP RFI:



Due to the initial c-bet strategy already deviating heavily from what you're likely doing I'm not going to look at the turn strat.
Thanks so much for the solve. It looks like the flop is pretty much a range check for Cut off. I think the ranges you used are solid.

I do see a little red in that QJo box though - so I think betting at a small frequency can be correct (although like I said earlier I should probably just bet my suited Jx with BDFD and leave it at that).

Can I bother you for a turn solve? I am very curious as to what hands would be used. I'm assuming a is good and a Jack.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:20 AM
Also one more thing - is that CO RFI monker approved? Or is that just your own range. My CO open is only 26.5% so maybe I should be opening slightly wider
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Also one more thing - is that CO RFI monker approved? Or is that just your own range. My CO open is only 26.5% so maybe I should be opening slightly wider
Being slightly tighter in a higher raked environment would be best, so 26.5 seems solid.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Thanks so much for the solve. It looks like the flop is pretty much a range check for Cut off. I think the ranges you used are solid.

I do see a little red in that QJo box though - so I think betting at a small frequency can be correct (although like I said earlier I should probably just bet my suited Jx with BDFD and leave it at that).

Can I bother you for a turn solve? I am very curious as to what hands would be used. I'm assuming a is good and a Jack.
With this specific sim and no changes to it the x/r on turn are seta that checked turn and basically qt. You're a lot better off either simplifying to a much simpler strategy or getting enough information to justify deviating from that simplification.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:32 AM
Are all the tables you play this reg heavy?
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:42 AM
thanks for the sim. just wonder if even regs play such a tightish CC range on the btn tho
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brokenstars
With this specific sim and no changes to it the x/r on turn are seta that checked turn and basically qt. You're a lot better off either simplifying to a much simpler strategy or getting enough information to justify deviating from that simplification.
Okay cool. Tbh I confused 2 concepts in this hand.

If Villain was BB then QJo should be a bet at a reasonable frequency (solvers like to bet 2pTK and 3pTK very often) so I figured QJo would be an okay bet but that is only when IP.

I realized we should be checking here more than betting against BTN but I didn't realize it was close to 90% of our range. thanks again.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yasuo
thanks for the sim. just wonder if even regs play such a tightish CC range on the btn tho
Cold call ranges in this situation will vary quite a lot.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by U8MyEdge
Are all the tables you play this reg heavy?
yeah its WPN Network. It's definitely the hardest one i've played on and I've played on

Ignition
Bet Online
Intertops

WPN is by far the most reggy/difficult. But i get better faster so it's okay.
Last hand for the night I swear - Thoughts on this bluff? Quote
06-25-2019 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
yeah its WPN Network. It's definitely the hardest one i've played on and I've played on

Ignition
Bet Online
Intertops

WPN is by far the most reggy/difficult. But i get better faster so it's okay.
Brutal bro. If I was in that situation I doubt I would grind alot. So tough to get a good winrate and make it worth your time.

Edit: Now it makes sense why you seem to spend crazy hours on the sim
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