This is happening in a 10-20 online nlh cash game india
Hero (100bb~2000) button
villain(70bb~1400) (SB)
UTG limps in and rest everyone folds around to me in the button, I have KdJd
I raise to 80, blinds both call and limper also calls. Now the pot is 320.
Flop : 10d Js 5c
villain in the small blind leads out for 240, folds around to me, I think its an easy call for me, i have TP good kicker + backdoor flush draw.
pot (800)
spr ~ 1.3
I think I call with AJ and fold KJ. All one-pair hands are bluff catchers here since villain's value is mainly 55/JT. Hard to see them going crazy with AJ when we can have all the overpairs/JJ/TT and they can't. I'd rather call with a hand like AJ that doesn't block any of the potential bluffs like KQ/K9s/Q9s/Q8s/98s. We also have JJ/TT, AA and maybe JT if we're raising that preflop? I think KJ we can let go.
You have to be good like a third of the time. When he donks into three people and you call he's essentially saying he has Jack's and better beat. You have a bluff catcher. Do you think he's bluffing here 30% of the time?
This is a tough spot. I could definitely see villain leading here with a hand that had an open ended draw and happened to turn a spade draw and is now maximizing his fold equity with such a strong draw. We could also be looking at a hand like JT/TT/55/JJ where were definitely crushed. At best were hoping he has one of the monster draws like 98s, Q9s or KQs. I actually think I put a little less weight on him having JJ. If he has a hand like that I think he's much more likely to take a smaller sizing on the turn to try to get full value. If he thinks you have a J here why risk jamming all in and allowing you to make a good fold when he could simply stick to a 1/2 2/3rd sizing and still get it in on the river. On the flip side if he has JJ here its going to be far more unlikely that you'd have a J so you're going to be far more likely to have to fold to his turn shove. This causes him to miss a good bit of value potentially. TT /55 could make sense and would be a reasonable hand that he might have. He could be putting you on the open ender or flush draw and doesn't want to let a cheap scare card pull off. So that leaves us 55/TT/JT and maybe AJ for value and KQ/Q9/98s a bluff. That's 9 total combos of sets and 6 combos of JTs and JTo. So 15 combos of value. If we take all possible combos of KQ/Q9/98 off and suited we have 44 possible combos. Lets say he doesn't take this line with 98 unless its suited with the spades. That drops us to 29 combos. If we do the same with Q9 we drop to 14 combos. Further with KQs that drops us down to 3. So if we assume this to be the worst case scenario we are quite the dog with our hand. If we can throw in half of the KQo and Q9o it becomes a bit of a closer spot. I think making the fold here might be the best play in this exact situation.
