6Max NL5 on ACR
sitting 5 handed. eff stack 132bb.
only have 26 hands on villain but has already shown down 9To utg. called off a large 3 bet A6o. VP64 over the hands. Has shown other wild tendencies in a short span.


Villain utg min raises. hero 3 bets btn to 45c JJ. Villain calls.
Flop AK7ss P: 97c
Villain checks. Hero bets 47c. Villain calls.
Turn 8s P: $1.89
Villain snap bets $1. Hero goes into the tank.

Not sure what betting flop achieves really. Sure he’s a weak player but I think we’ll realise more EV by checking back and letting him bluff.

As played turn comes down to the reads you have on him. We’re pretty low in our range given a lot of our flop bluffs will now be flushes so we definitely don’t need to defend this. I’d just fold unless we have a pretty good read that he’s a total maniac.

You can go even bigger pre flop.

Check flop.

After the fact I didn't love the flop bet but I don't hate it vs this particular villain. Given his ability to call down any sort of straight draw or about any PP as well as if he connected with the 7. I'd assume I'd hear about a set K or A right there on the flop from an opponent who values small hands so large.

The big thing with the turn bet was the timing tell. it was a snap $1 bet which seemed like he was trying to sell me on it too much. My main question is if I call turn am I committing to calling all but spade rivers? maybe Q too?

Think about this some more and then decide whether you really want to bet third pair into him.

He was also 4/4 on calling off 3bets and hes shown a wide range so him calling certainly doesn't mean an A. I more put that in there to explain why my 3bet in position was so large. was certain to get a call out of all of his very wide opening range

Sure, but if he's calling A6o he's calling with any ace. And he'll also be calling with a whole bunch of Kx. So even though he has some air and straight draws (and you block straight draws hard) you still have an awful lot of hands that beat you. And it's not like you always win against his draws when they miss. You'll have to check the turn a lot, then he'll bet river, then you'll have to fold.

Check flop. Get to showdown cheap. Hand strength is relative.

Even with a VPIP of 64, he will have a lot more A and K than 7.
64VPIP might play A2 from UTG, or KTo. But he won't play 72.
There's no point betting here other than trying to make him fold a K but you will need AT LEAST 2 bets for that, which means that you'll pay 2 bets to every trashy ace he's got.

Your hand was great preflop. It's not so great on the flop. You don't have "pocket jacks" anymore you have third pair. Third pair isn't worth betting on this flop against a calling station.

when villain has shown he will chase every possible draw on a board with handful of draw combinations and also shown us T9o from utg. A flop bet can't be heavily negative EV. I agree after the fact it may not be the best line.

As played are we calling a snap turn bet and reevaluating river or if we call a turn bet does that mean we should call most rivers? Given the high likely hood of bluffing hands to barrel turn and river as well as made hands. Or are we just giving up on the turn despite a likely timing tell?

Also if we check flop and villain leads turn we have to be calling once don't we? in which case are we calling turn folding to a second river barrel?

Play around with an equity calculator and I challenge you to find a realistic range that makes it good to bet here.
And yes he has 64 VPIP, but he raised UTG and called a 3bet, so don't go around putting T6s and J7o in his range.
You're gonna find it difficult and will have to be very creative to come up with something where you're largely favorite, considering how many A and K he has in his range.

Would also be enlightening to find a range that justifies Villain snap bets $1. Hero goes into the tank. when the flush hit and the 8 even fills some random 8-7 villain might have called with.

Flop is definitely a check imho, and as played, turn is definitely a fold.
Expecting a huge chunk in his range to not have A, not have K, and not have the flush draw on the flop, is just being stubborn with "I have a big pocket pair it can't lose again, so he HAS to have a 7. And just a 7". It's not right.

Easy check back otf. You should be in showdown mode here, not I'm gona turn my hand into a bluff against the guy that doesn't fold mode.
Even if villain is a complete spaz he can easily have connected with this flop. You'r bloating the pot with a bet that doesn't really achieve anything. As played I'm probably folding ott but this could have been a relatively easy call if you'd checked back otf.

I'm wondering if villain has an ace why would he snap bet and try to sell me on a flush and kill any potential check raise or river action. I guess he could do it with a king if hes assuming I must have an ace. But doesn't seem like the level of thinking this villain was on. same stands if he filled two pair. why sell strength with actual strength? The range that I give to snap betting is all bluffs or 7s that you find in his preflop range. with a better player I would throw semi bluffs with kings in there or smaller aces.

That being said when he does get there or pull a whacky I have a flush strength but still has showdown value the flop bet does bloat the pot. So I agree the flop is a check back. would you ever mix in flop bets on a rainbow flop given the villain can have less equity. I forgot to mention we didn't have Js. Only smaller pairs with less showdown value?

Villain is a 64 vpip, so one thing you can be sure is that he probably doesn't know how to play poker. You can't rule out a play because it's not optimal, because he's obviously not playing optimally.

And these players think about their hands first, more than the board, your hand, what range each player has and the optimal move from these ranges and all...

So, thinking about his hand first, what is he calling the flop bet with? The big part of his range is flush draws, A and K. All of this has you beat on the turn.

Is it stupid for him to bet a K on the turn? Maybe. But it stills beat you, stupid or not, so unless you raise to make him fold his K and weak aces, there's not much you can do about it... And trying to make him fold stuff is probably not a good idea given he's a 64vpip who doesn't like folding.

If calling is bad and raising is burning money, there's just one other option.

fair enough. maybe gave him too much credit in the wrong spot. thanks for the opinions