Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
^^ So we should just open up our range on the button & sb & be very much exploitable as a default? I normally start off with balanced ranges in these spots & open it up or tighten it with reads, but the more profitable play is to open ridiculously wide & be very exploitable with the thought that most players are just over-folding blinds?
Without a lot of hands played, being exploitable doesn't matter because they don't know you are exploitable.
extreme example, If you steal the blind twice in a row with 2-3 offsuit, they could easily "exploit" that, by 3betting any two cards and having a better range than you.
But they don't know you're doing this with 2-3 offsuit, and after 2 hands played they'll give you a standard stealing range of suited connectors, broadway cards, all pairs, aces, etc.. so they won't 3bet you lightly.
If you steal 100 hands in a row well now they have the information they need to know you're full of it... So either they will use it and 3bet you light (and then you'll decide between tightening up now that they caught on, and/or going crazy with the 4bets). Or they will not do anything. Because most people don't really pay attention. And even if they pay attention they don't react to it. They just go "That darn punk stealing me blinds!", shrug it off and go to the next hand because it's not in their understanding that they could 3bet you with a weaker hand; They think it's burning money, putting so much in the pot with a weak hand. While burning money is actually what they're doing by folding to your steal everytime.
Yeah, it's exploitable. Doesn't mean it can't be profitable. If it works keep doing it, if it doesn't work, adjust.
If everyday you drive 5 miles and pick up a $100 bill someone left on the ground, it could be exploited against you; Someone could just pick it up and then you wasted your time. But as long as no one picks it up, as long as it's there for the taking, jsut do it? Don't worry about "But what if people wise up and pick it up before me? Maybe I should stop driving there because I don't want to lose my time... ". Worry about this if they pick it up. By not driving there 'in case they picked it up before you', you lose $100 a day.
Well, the same applies. If you can steal blinds, steal blinds. If they let you do it then don't stop. If they adjust (and thus don't let you do it anymore) then it's your time to adjust, stop, or go over the top.
There are people who won't adjust. There are people against who my steal % is close to 100%. I really need a good reason NOT to steal. And I haven't seen any increase in 3betting from them.
There's a thing about poker, if you're in for the long run and want to win, you have to understand that not everyone plays optimally. If they did, no one would win. We'd just swap money around and losing to the rake. So don't assume that because if a player plays optimally against you, strategy X won't work; If they play optimally against you, over the long run, every strategy will fail. Either you'll lose to them, or you'll both lose to the rake.
So don't worry about making yourself exploitable. Worry about being exploited. If you get to the point where you find someone you're basically robbing blind, keep doing it, til you can't do it anymore. And then worry about which way you want to keep this going.
Lots of money in poker comes from the big spots/tough decisions, but don't ignore the importance of blinds. Decent winrates seem to hover around 2bb/100, 4bb/100, something like that... Stealing 1 more blinds ( so, 1.5bb total) is almost a decent winrate in itself, the rest being break even (0).
Poker, over the long run against regular players, is about adapting with stuff happening. Stealing blinds is just one thing. If you find that someone NEVER pays you off when you hit a set, folding 100% when you raise him (unless he has a set+ too), then you have to adjust... Either stop set mining against him, or better yet, start bluffing him more. So you'll get him to fold on bluffs, AND when he catch on that you're doing this, he'll start paying your sets because he won't know they are sets.
That's just poker. See how they adjust, and react to that. But as long as they don't adjust, if you're not stealing their blinds, you're leaving money on the table.