There are a few hands per day that make or break your winrate. This was one of those hands for me. Since most of you plan to move up at some point in the future, it's worth looking at hands like this to start to get ready.

I built my stack by being a suck-out monkey when KK > AA all-in preflop against a TAG. It happens to all of us, from both directions -- coolers are just a (very frustrating) part of the game, after all.

Villain is why I'm at the table: he's running 55/30/2.3 over 180 hands. He's sitting directly on my right with a huge stack.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $94
SB: $89.50
BB: $123
UTG: $96.70
MP: $363.40
Hero (CO): $233
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $15, 3 folds, MP calls $11.50

Raise is for value. From what I've seen, villain calls with a fairly wide range, here, so I'm not even remotely afraid.

Flop: ($31.50) 4 6 T (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $25, MP calls $25

Drawless board, but villain goes too far with all sorts of random crap. Bet is for value.

Turn: ($81.50) J (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $60, MP calls $60

The board is only vaguely drawy. I make a big bet to try to commit myself to the pot -- I plan to push a safe river card.

River: ($201.50) 7 (2 Players)
MP bets $133, Hero wishes he were watching TV instead of playing poker.

Well, I could think of safer river cards. Some weird lil' straights got there and the backdoor flush arrived, but I'm more worried about sets and two-pair hands. The bet offers me some tasty-good odds...nonetheless, if I call I wind up risking 233 BBs on nothing but a one-pair hand.

I puke in my mouth a lil' bit (standard), and then I make a choice. What's good poker here, and (MUCH more importantly) why?

that smells like a pretty sick suckout to me. depeding on how aggressive he is on the river, and what the chances of him making a move are, i would probably fold. seems like he could easily have any set, have slowplayed you or caught it on the turn/river. i dont know too many fish that c/c flop, c/c turn, then push the river unless they have one pair beat. hope this helps a little. tough decision though. i would rather find a better spot, he will prolly lose it all back to you soon anyways

Hmmm...are we good 40% of the time here? I would call if there were draws on the flop that he could have missed and be desperation bluffing, but there don't appear to be any, especially because this a 3bet pot. I believe the correct play is to fold

I agree with angry hobo here, youi played this hand very well and made him pay hard for whatever the heck he hit but there's just too many hands that have you beat here and I really wouldn't be surprised seeing vialin turn up something like 9T. Hand like these are the reason why I'm often taking poker breaks; this game is just sick sometimes.

Well from what I have seen for like 45k hands at 50NL and 15k hands at 25NL when a villain goes c/c c/c donk its usually a very strong hand. I dont know the tendencies of NL100 but from his stats I will treat him like any other moron and give him credit here. Like you said, the backdoor flush draw is only a small part of his range, but it is definitely there. So is 74,76,T7 for two pair. Maybe a slowplayed JT which is definitely possible along with 44/66/TT and again, maybe even 77 against this guy. Im going to assume he doesnt have 98 but these guys never cease to amaze me. As far as reasonable hands that hit the bd flush, A/K/Q/9-Tss.

Now reasonable hands we beat: 75 that realizes a pair of 7's are no good, hands that contain a ten other than the ones I listed. Depending on how crazy he can get, 88,99. The thing is, I really only see 75 doing this out of all the hands I listed that we beat though.

You call. The odds he is giving you is good and his range is huge. Running PokerStove generates so much equity that a fold in the long run will lose money.

Board: 4s 6c Th Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.136% 75.91% 00.23% 167 0.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 23.864% 23.64% 00.23% 52 0.50 { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

I dont think we can safely assume he has any pocket pair, thats a little absurd, especially when taking this line. Along with that goes alot of those hands containing a ten, I just dont see it happening nearly often enough at NL50. People take this line in general when they have been trapping for two streets and are no fearful you will check behind for whatever reason. So they bet/shove hoping to get value.

how can you say he doesn't have a pair ... with 30% PFR those are hands out of the 169 he could have ... i'm pretty sure they 3-bet PF very light at those limits, so to him Pokey could have anything

He could have a pair from upto the river is what Im saying. It is so rare that someone will c/c flop and turn and decide to just shove out of nowhere on the river with 88 here.

he is telling you he just beat you. He should know you have to call but I am thinking that river card just made his hand.

It is always better if you've seen him make this kind of play before. However I"ve said you have to call simply from an equity stand point but I really can't see him playing a 1 pair hand like this. I honestly try to convince myself to fold before I Call

i like DG-craze's read of TP and a backdoor flush. he can turn up with Qs10s and As10s alot.

i'm fairly new to online poker, but i have played a few hundred thousand hands live, in casinos and home games, and those guys are the same as your fish here. loose donks. he will not c/c c/c push without a better hand that KK

pizza man, i dont see where you can get that range from, he is not calling two bets with absolutely nothing. that is a wack range, and way too wide. you can narrow that alot, and also assume that you are beat here the vast majority of the time unless he is bluffy. obviously +EV fold in my opinion

Sick spot with those stats on the villian. Have you seen him make big bluffs before? With stats like that you should hopefully have been paying close attention to his play to figure out if he's only crazy when the money is small, or if he still makes bluffs in big pots too. It seems all too often i see a guy that seems crazy make a big river bet, i look him up, and he shows up with a decent 2 pair or straight or something, and i realize that i got fooled by his image. If I haven't seen him too active in big pots then I might make a laydown here, and I may also have considered checking the turn to induce a callable bluff.

I think if you add a few things up this can be a call, although I think it's always dependent on dynamics and reads that go beyond stats.

1) Villian goes too far with bad hands, which means his range on the river can include some hands that have little to no showdown value. If he was too tight to ever get to the river with hands that he would want to turn into bluffs, then it would be an obvious fold

2) Villian is very aggressive for his VP$IP. In order for him to make money he has to be playing aggressively post-flop in spots and stealing pots.

3) Pokey's range is pretty well defined as overpairs by the betting and the board. He can probably show up here with TT occasionally, but by and large he never has any of the draws that hit, or two pair hands here.

So, villian shows up on the river in a big pot with a hand that has no showdown value, knows Pokey probably has a one pair hand, knows the backdoor flush is in his range and that Pokey knows that, and hence it's a scarecard, I think he can definitely be bluffing here a decent amount of the time, enough for this to be a close decision. If he's seen me lay down some hands to big river bets, or taken similar lines to this in the past, than I think you can call here.

What realistic hands fit that criteria other than 75 oh and 87? Btw, this is assuming he call two big bets with a gs, which is possible, but I wouldnt count all the possible combos of 87 here.

your assuming this guy is a decent/good player. i dont think you can assume he is a thinking player like you just did. he has to think on the 3rd level to realize that pokey has an overpair, and will fold if he represents a better hand.

1. this is 100nl not 400nl or 600nl
2. this guy is a fish, hes not a winning player
3. i cannot beleive you are assuming he is this good, it is obvious hes not, pokey even said that he is the table fish.

this donkey thinks on the first level MAX. therefore pokey must think on the second level to play profitably. you are thinking on the third level. dont throw your money away by overthinking this situation

this is a better range and still warrants a call

Board: 4s 6c Th Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.372% 55.37% 00.00% 67 0.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 44.628% 44.63% 00.00% 54 0.00 { JJ-TT, 77-66, 44, ATs, KTs, QTs, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 75s+, ATo, KTo, QTo, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o }

So we need about 36% equity.

I think a decent range would be something like:
{ TT+, 77-66, 44, ATs, KJs, QJs, JTs, Ts9s, 98s, 8s7s, 6s5s, 3s2s, AJo-ATo, KJo, QJo, JTo, 98o }

We have 47% against this and should call.

Edit: posted before I saw Pizza's new range.

Looks like we're pretty close.

you guys have to think about the situation more realisticly. dont jump to pokerstove and type in some hands that he could (or not) have. i simply dont think this guy can play this way with a worse hand that pokey's. if he shows up with nothing i will stand corrected, but IMO this guy just WONT play this way with nothing.

i bet the conversations and hand analysis on this forum would be much more productive without you guys instantly jumping to pokerstove. you dont have that when you play, and it assumes too much.

spend some more time playing live, and i bet your winrate would increase from the experience.

I'm not ready to talk about the hand, but I do want to get the math straight before you all move foward:

I'm risking $133 to win $334.50. So, a break-even play would be:

EV = x*(+$334.50) + (1-x)*(-$133) = 0
334.50x + 133x = 133
467.50x = 133
x = 28.5%

If I win the showdown 28.5% of the time or more then I should call; if I win less than 28.5% of the time then I should fold.

This discussion has been quite interesting to me -- please continue!

Yeah, mis-read pot (or I really just life-failed).

i still believe that despite the great odds that everyone is aroused about, it is still a fold. there are tons of better spots against this guy, and even if his actuall range is big enough for a call, it is a MARGINAL call at very best. i think a call here is just shipping money over and being a payoff wizard as phil laak would call it

Why can't he have 78 for the double-gutter on the flop?
Sure he rivered a pair but it's pretty obvious it has no showdown value.

I didn't see you post a range Hobo.

this is a fold imo. why in earth is he making this bet on the river... the answere is for value. the main thing here is that there is zero reason for him to...

a. make it to the river with air

b. turn his semi made hand into a complete bluff

c. thing that our hand is weak and that we r looking to fold the river

this guy just doesnt make it to the river enough here with air so he cant be bluffing anywhere near enough to make a call profitable. if we had checked behind the turn or sumtin weird like that then i turbo call. but given how strong our hand looks and how fast we played the hand there is no way a call is good here


forgot to add that at the table i am typically a call monkey and prolly look him up so i have a pretty good feel for this and play deep stacked poker a lot

i dont think he will have small suited connectors here that often. i think he folds to the big reraise pf most of the time. he would probably just check/fold river with that hand imo.

hes a fish, but i doubt he would push with a rivered tiny pair that is obviously not good.

the only time i think we are ahead is a desperation bluf from something like that or top pair

i still fold, i think the times he has us killed and takes 233bb off us with top pair just doesnt make up for the few times we have him. save the heroic calls for the good players. you can beat this guy in less marginal ways than this!

Say he doesn't flop with overs-J.

I took the QJ, JK, etc out of my range above.

We are still good 1/3 of the time.


"i dont think he will have small suited connectors here that often."
He's playing half his hands.
Do you really think a fish pfr SC's and folds to a 3b 250bb deep?

"takes 233bb off us with top pair"
Whatever we bet already doesn't matter. We're not calling 233bb on the river.