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 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river  SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river

03-23-2009 , 01:10 AM
Poker Stars $55.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BB): t1711 M = 11.41
BTN/SB: t1289 M = 8.59

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BB with J 6
BTN/SB calls t50, Hero checks

Flop: (t200) J J 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

Turn: (t200) T (2 players)
Hero bets t150, BTN/SB calls t150

River: (t500) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets t325, BTN/SB raises to t1039 all in, Hero ???

Villain has about 35% aggression on the flop. Do you think I should lead the flop rather than go for a cr/slowplay?

River I'm getting good pot odds, but I only chop with a weak Jack and lose to pretty much anything else. Never seen Villain do anything particularly tricky before, so unlikely this is 9x bluff shoving or anything?
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote
03-23-2009 , 03:03 AM
Flop: I usually lead unless villain has been limping in and stabbing a lot at this level/stack size recently. Can't tell if the "35% flop aggression" you mention indicates whether he's been doing this or not. My main reasons for leading are 1) it looks less suspicious and is easier to continue against than check-raising and 2) the wetness of the flop and my wanting not to lose his action on ugly turns when it checks through.

Against a villain with whom I don't have an aggro and specific post-flop dynamic and who is himself not ******ed, I feel like on this flop a lead says to him: 'I can have a draw, a steal, crappy Ace/King high, an 8, or a monster.' A check-raise says: 'I have a monster, a good draw, or am making a risky steal.' A check-call says: 'I have a draw, a slowplayed monster, an 8, or crappy Ace high.'

In short, one of my basic problems with a check-raise here is that it tends to have too much folding equity, which I absolutely want to minimize in this spot.

(If, however, you've been check-raising the guy with any kind of noticeable frequency, then do it again by all means. And if you haven't stabbed at a single pot OOP yet, then you probably have to check here too.)

Turn: Looks good.

River: River is a must bet, I think. And then we're getting 2.1 to 1 when he shoves, meaning we have to be good 32% of the time. I'm feeling a fold here based on your villain description, unless he's also -25% ROI or something. I'd bust out the Pokerstove to get a concrete sense of how we stand, but don't wish to invite witty commentary at this late hour.
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote
03-23-2009 , 06:40 AM
reads on villian and gmaeflow, i feel its a fold but varies on villian
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote
03-23-2009 , 07:07 AM
Yeah this is absolutely a puke spot. I do tend to lead these flops because there are so many draws which will just insta-raise a donk lead here, and most straightforward opponents just don't believe you would lead with trips here. Besides that i think you played the hand well on turn and river, but the river is purely read dependant. Against the villain you described here i think i find a fold, but throwing up in my mouth whilst i do it...
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote
03-23-2009 , 07:47 AM
Leading the flop is something i'd do everytime with this hand, but it suits my style to do this. I'm not sure if leading here is the best line if this isn't something you'd normally do, it might be, i don't know.

But it's a crap spot but i'm going against the grain here to say i'd call
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote
03-23-2009 , 08:21 AM
i think unless you know this is a call, its a fold.
 SNG - Weak trips shoved on flush river Quote

      
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