Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
This was my private message to you -
This was your response
But that is NOT correct --after asking someone that knows GTO better than anyone in the forum (inventor of PIO SOLVER).
I've noticed this a lot -people try to backtrack or use hindsight bias and either trick themselves into thinking they knew something the whole time or just lie to themselves to protect their ego, I'm not sure which one it is.
No one in this forum plays nosebleeds - we all play micros or small stakes at best. We don't know sh.it about poker. Start acting like it.
There's absolutely no guarantee betting 77 on that texture is highest point-EV because 77 have the nut-low blocker effects and also need absolutely 0 protection and V folding is a complete disaster such that we have an extremely high incentive to x 77 here just based on pure EV considerations, no balance necessary. Checking 77 absolutely, positively may be the highest EV play, even at equilibrium--I've seen spots where the nuts are checks back IP in pure or almost pure fashion.
77 in particular on this texture benefit so so so much from just making sure V isn't allowed to leave the hand. There is absolutely 0 a priori reason to think betting 77 other than some hand wavey "but I have a set"-type explanation. Same for that FD example in the book posted.
In fact, I'm not sure it even makes sense to even try to think of changes to EV in that manner AT EQUILIBRIUM (not talking about exploitation) because as long as you're not in a terminal node, you have subsequent actions to be taken with your current line meaning your decision at every point in time is based on your knowledge about what's going (i.e. how many chips won/lost) in those terminal nodes subsequent to your current spot in the tree because that's literally where money is made--that's where the chips are shipped. I think by definition in fact you can't calculate EV anywhere except the terminal nodes.
Assuming this pretty much ignores how EV is actually calculated, because it ignores that there are subsequent nodes in which the decision to x ends up better than the decision to bet such that in this hypothetical spot where you ran a tree and saw 77 mix flop b or x the EVs came out to being the same. Slowplaying is absolutely a GTO concept.
If you'd like to go ahead and prove that betting (btw it's silly to say "betting has to be higher EV" without specifying sizings) 77 there is unilaterally higher EV without having to consider unexploitability, please do so.
Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 08-19-2019 at 10:08 AM.