Good bluff or nah? 10NL 6max - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Good bluff or nah? 10NL 6max

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09-25-2018 , 12:48 AM

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
BB ($43.39) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 18.7% | AGG: 37.8% | 3-Bet: 8.8% | Hands: 4852]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 40.4% | 3-Bet: 8.4% | Hands: 1350]
HERO ($26.54) [VPIP: 28.2% | PFR: 22.1% | AGG: 31% | 3-Bet: 10.4% | Hands: 48130]
CO ($10) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 27% | 3-Bet: 9.3% | Hands: 573]
BTN ($10.43) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 7.6% | AGG: 29.4% | 3-Bet: 4.2% | Hands: 67]
SB ($15.35) [VPIP: 32% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 32.5% | 3-Bet: 1.9% | Hands: 154]

Dealt to Hero: K

UTG Raises To $0.28, HERO Raises To $0.99, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.71

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.23 effective]
Flop ($2.13): J

UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.01 (Rem. Stack: 24.54), UTG Calls $1.01 (Rem. Stack: 8.00)

Turn ($4.15): J

UTG Checks, HERO Bets $24.54 (allin)

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09-25-2018 , 01:29 AM

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

Villains capped. We block some hands and there are draws on board. You need to this with nutty value hands for it to work. If I’d seen you play tptk+ in a more standard way this would trigger some suspicion. I’ve made similar calls.

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09-25-2018 , 01:58 AM

afortiori

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 140

I would probably check back flop, as played I don't think you need to jam, it looks more bluffy this way and you're risking a lot more to fold out probably the same range of hands.

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09-25-2018 , 02:59 AM

ChipsNcrisps

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 4,946

how is villain capped he can still have QQ/JJ and maybe some QJs..?

this doesnt make sense and feels very spewy indeed

I much prefer betting flop smaller and betting turn around 60%

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09-25-2018 , 03:40 AM

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChipsNcrisps

how is villain capped he can still have QQ/JJ and maybe some QJs..?

this doesnt make sense and feels very spewy indeed

I much prefer betting flop smaller and betting turn around 60%

Yeah maybe.

But I don’t think QQ calls pre that often and I don’t think players protect their calling range enough on dry flops. So with this flop so wet QJ and sets would raise at a decent frequency most likely. So I don’t think those hands show up that much on average. There’s a few draws to go at, and we might get folds from AJ or KQ.

My worry would be is this out of character for us with value hands? I’d prefer this on a

Do you check 2 pair+ here that often?

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09-25-2018 , 04:18 AM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

I think it's ok

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09-25-2018 , 06:14 AM

Mr. Waldo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 52

His defense range preflop vs 3-bet from MP is probably pretty tight. Once he x/calls flop, it's even tighter, and you have blockers on the few hands that could fold (AQ, AJ, clubs draws). So at first I didn't like it. But I calculated your RFE at 66%, so it looks ok if he calls QQ/JJ and folds the rest (AJs, AQ). Plus you have around 10% equity when called by sets. Now, as others have mentionned, it looks pretty hard to balance so still not a fan.

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09-25-2018 , 06:54 AM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

how is this hard to balance? we can comfortably jam KK+

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09-25-2018 , 07:59 AM

ArtyMcFly

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 13,256

I think villain folds a lot on the flop, partly because you block the draws, so a decent chunk of his flop-calling range is JJ, AQs, AJs. He's not folding AQ to the turn jam, is he?

As Chips said "I much prefer betting flop smaller and betting turn around 60%".
Get him to peel once with AJ/TT/99, and then make him fold his one pairs to a normal-sized bet, without ever getting stacked yourself when he has AQ+/JJ.

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09-25-2018 , 08:43 AM

#10

juhiimi

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 125

Guys what range do you give him, against you think its ok to cbet this flop?

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09-25-2018 , 09:03 AM

#11

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

Better spots

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabe16

But I don’t think QQ calls pre that often

When UTG+1s starts 3betting UTG light, UTGs can start 4betting QQ.

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09-25-2018 , 09:25 AM

#12

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearer

Better spots

When UTG+1s starts 3betting UTG light, UTGs can start 4betting QQ.

I don’t think QQ is good as a call oop. Unless utg1 was extremely nitty it can be 4B.

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09-25-2018 , 09:40 AM

#13

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

If by nitty you mean only 3betting the top of the pole, I think that would be a fair baseline assumption. But fair enough they have history and he does get to 4bet some (was arguing it shouldn't be default).

What I am not willing to do is faithfully discount slowplays from a small stakes players range even when it may be theoretically incorrect. And if his opponent (OP) is going to recklessly overbet blank turns it would not be incorrect, especially with the removal effects of QQ, JJ and QJ

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09-25-2018 , 09:46 AM

#14

Tuma

Worships Amon-Ra

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 16,400

this is bad, you should feel bad. next time have no clubs and be GTO when burning money!

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09-25-2018 , 09:53 AM

#15

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

I’m not saying I agree with the push. I’d never do it, just that by this point most nl10 players are pretty capped.

Villains will certainly snap call sets and two pair some of the time, but by this point I expect it to be significantly less vs the average villain.

And if you were to do this. Going against a capped range is best and only as long as we’ve shown we can do this with value hands?

This is why I wouldn’t do it. I’d ever want to blow KQ, AQ or fd’s of this pot with my sets etc.

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09-25-2018 , 09:59 AM

#16

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

Good point about the overbet though!

So your default play with QQ oop is to flat here?

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09-25-2018 , 10:01 AM

#17

Mr. Waldo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

how is this hard to balance? we can comfortably jam KK+

Isn't it overbluffing if we shove all the AK and only KK+ for value ?
It looks better if we shove only the AK without a club.

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09-25-2018 , 10:22 AM

#18

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabe16

I think going against a capped range is great, but I don't think UTG is capped or that his overall range is weak enough by the turn.

Underpairs to the jack have a trivial fold on the flop so we are basically relying on Jx to dominate vills range or him to be a rare small stakes player good enough to fold a strong top pair. Plenty of weaker, capped ranges waiting to be attacked every other minute with a more efficient hand selection.

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09-25-2018 , 10:41 AM

#19

Gabe16

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 493

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearer

Maybe your player pool is different to mine. But the analysis I’ve done on mine shows that once villain has called the 3B pre, x/c a less than 50% cb on a straight flushy board, then x to us again on the turn he’s pretty capped. This gives me reason to go through some hands.

I prefer to have my assumptions proven wrong than think I’m right.

I definitely agree with your last statement though.

Can I ask for a range assumption on the turn? If it’s uncapped I’m guessing KK+?

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09-25-2018 , 10:51 AM

#20

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Waldo

Isn't it overbluffing if we shove all the AK and only KK+ for value ?
It looks better if we shove only the AK without a club.

yes it's better

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09-25-2018 , 11:20 AM

#21

DooDooPoker

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 18,585

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Waldo

Isn't it overbluffing if we shove all the AK and only KK+ for value ?
It looks better if we shove only the AK without a club.

I can have QQ and JJ as well as AQs that all do this for value.

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09-25-2018 , 11:57 AM

#22

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabe16

It could be more straighty - if it were say QJ8 I would be more on board. Plus if villain perceives hero to be raising with a uniquely tight range of AK, QQ+ given the positions, then the wetness of the flop is even less significant.

By the turn I expect him to show up with AJs+, AQ+, KTs+, QJs, JJ-AA with AA-KK discounted and most AK folding flop.

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09-26-2018 , 03:29 AM

#23

Mr. Waldo

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 52

Quote:

Originally Posted by DooDooPoker

I can have QQ and JJ as well as AQs that all do this for value.

I'm not 3-betting JJ and AQs pre vs utg. And I don't see any reason to overbet jam QQ on the turn too, you'd have two blockers on almost all his calling range.

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