Hi guys,

I will post my hand first, wait for you guys to grill me

or agree with me

I will wait for your guys thoughts then explain my thoughts behind my decision. Btw V has VPIP: 20 PFR: 16 3B: 5.6% over 601 hands so a clear reg.

Now I am in the middle of deciding whether I am over-levelling myself here or was a just plain bad decision.

If you want to spew in this hand, 4-bet pre instead

I don't think there's too much to say when you don't give reasoning behind it. It just looks silly and like you hand read bad (no offense).

+1

I expected a response like this and don't blame you if I give no reasoning. On the river I am risking $8.20 to win $6.72 so villain needs to fold about 60% of the time for this move to show a profit. From his 3B stats he has a 3B range of 99+,AJs+, AQo+ give or take.

Now I expect him to check the flop pretty much always and I obviously check behind. On the turn, I have to call at least once as I believe he is betting his whole range here and if he checked to me again I could then try and bluff him off his QQ, KK and maybe AJs.

On the river, he leads into me which looks like value however at this stake I have noticed that a lot of regs respect river shoves and won't call unless they have the flush/full house. I have plenty more flushes in my range as I believe he doesn't 3 bet KJs, JTs etc. Alongside my general population read I believe I am making him fold AK which he may lead for value. So all in all I think the 3 hands he can call with are AA, QQ and maybe AQ.

Hands that fold river: (hands that would lead)

- random bluffs
- AK 9 combos
- AJ 5 combos

Hands that call river:

- QQ 4 combos
- AA 4 combos
- AQ 9 combos

My bluff would fold out 14 value combos and get called by 17 value combos. This means my bluff would work 45% of the time which is -EV. However I think it depends whether villain would call the shove with AQ with possible flushes, full houses and the off chance I called with a 3. If he calls AQ then it is -EV but if he folds AQ then it is +ev as he fold 23 value combos and I get called by 8 value combos which means the bluff would work 74% of the time.

Does this make sense?

Bet the flop for value and equity protection.

As played, good turn call.

As played, fold river. We dont beat any of villains value range. Opponents will cbet the flop with their air hands.

Raising river is a poor play. Opponent wont have many hands that will fold to a shove in a 3bet pot after checking flop, betting turn and river, on this board texture.

Your leveling yourself into making the incorrect play.

Play more hands. You will realize players are bluffing their air on Axx in 3bet pots and betting AJ a ton.

Nothing wrong raising river, just a terrible hand to bluff with

WP until the river but i would just fold the river.

I agree with this, however I believed he had very few if not no flushes in his range and the only boats he has is QQ/AA. This is why I decided to go for the bluff even though my hand wasn't great for it.

Yes I know I have an edge at these stakes so I agree that I should fold river. No need for balancing/high variance bluffs. Just value stack fish

One has nothing to do with the other.

high variance bluffs. whenever someone mentions "variance" as a reason not to do something....lol.

I think its ok PF call. But you have 600 hand on him. Did you checked how he defend his blinds? If he 3 bets alot from blinds maybe you should try a 4 bet.
But then i don't understand your play:
Flop - you check behind in a 3 bet pot with A high and a SD. Take a stab man.
Turn - you call almost PSB with second pair with a reg. if you call this why didn't you bet the flop? Maybe you wanted to keep the pot small... ok... but then...
River - you reraise all in with third pair, with a completed FD on board, with a reg who raised just 1/2 pot. why did you played like this?

no way he's betting turn and river with worse here often enough to profit. just spew really.