I think Villain will have every sets, 2 pairs, straights and very high equity draws on the flop.
I have a range check here, so he should not bet recklessly especially multiway.
Maybe the Ace of diamond is a plus but I'm not sure.

CO: 151 BB
BTN: 75.7 BB
Hero (SB): 175.9 BB
BB: 102.5 BB
UTG: 138.35 BB
MP: 82.9 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, BB calls 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 3 players) 8 9 7
Hero checks, BB bets 7.5 BB, fold, fold,

Not folding otf, even w/o Ad. He can be protection betting worse and his limp calling range can be still pretty wide.

It's a weird spot cause while I don't think we can fold flop, I don't see us being able to call many turn/river bets. Super gross spot though. Literally calling anything on almost any turn sucks

Very curious to see what other people have to say

Just out of curiosity I ran this through snowie, god knows what it assigned players for ranges, because it would never limp button/call when the BB also calls, but whatever. It calls flop.

Replaced the Ad with the As, now it's a mixed strat between calling and raising. I guess without the Ad we can use a little more protection?

This is a concept that always confuses me, because sometimes I'll see the solver (not snowie, actual solver) raise the non backdoor flushdraw combos, seemingly for protection. Sometimes however, it will only raise combos with backdoor flushdraws, SEEMINGLY because they have more equity when called. But which is it? Seems to sort of contradict itself, but I'm sure there are just a million variables I'm not accounting for. I haven't noticed any patterns as to when it likes to raise exclusively with the flushdraw combos vs exclusively without

If it is a made hands, we want to call more with diamond. Also we block his calling range vs a raise which is going to be Axdd. If we are raising as bluff, we want to have more equity so with bdfd and st8 draw is better.

BB coldcalled iso pre, so still has overpairs we beat. Can't fold this much equity for 1/2 pot

Agree. See if another diamond comes.

That's interesting, I'll keep an eye out for those spots and see if it works as a general rule of thumb. Makes sense though. Thanks!

Absurd fold

Yeah that fold is ridiculous.

Without commenting on the fold itself, the reasoning of "this guy can bet lesser hands for value therefore we have to call" is not sound logic.

I'm never folding this though, especially since it's now heads up. Yeah it's not a super profitable spot, and another bad card and big bet we likely have to fold, but we have to see at least one more card here. Just plug in a range you think he can bet here that includes tons of Tx semi-bluffs and other pair+ type hands, and I think you'll see you have more than enough equity to continue.

Like this.

Yeah, I'm super nit
but seriously I didn't want to call and fold on the turn