A tricky one came up today in 6max. I folded it, but in retrospect it feels like a nitty fold. Only had 30 hands on the opponent but he was running 22/16 over that sample, with a postflop aggression factor of 7 (small sample size and relative tightness and aggression leads to over-estimation usually, so I guess it would settle down to between 3.5 and 5 ish...).

I'm going to do my best to construct the various ranges, equities and pot odds and figure out whether or not this was a good fold. Anybody else's input is very welcome.






Opponent is opening up UTG so I'm going to give him credit for decent holdings. {77+, Broadways} = 8x6 pairs + 16x4 Ace broadways + 16x2 KQ, KJ, + 4 QJ suited + 3 JT suited = 153 combinations

Flop is 4s Js Kd

Opponent is cbetting almost all of his range here, but we can partition into value and bluffs.

Value: {JJ, KK, AA, AK, KQ, KJ} = 6 sets, 6 overpairs, 12TPTK, 12 TPGK, 9 twopairs = 45 combos

Hands that he might consider checking but will probably cbet anyway:
{AJ, QQ, QJs, 2 JTs} = 12 second pairs, 6 mid pairs, 2 QJ suited = 22 combos

Bluffs:{AQ, AT, 77, 88, 99, TT} = 32 broadway draws + 24 missed pairs = 56 combos

So Villain's range is pretty balanced, and looking back, I could probably find a fold here sometimes with JT. Anyway the cbet is 0.57x the pot, meaning the pot odds for the call are

(pot + 0.57xpot)
-------------------- : 1 = roughly 2.75:1 meaning hero requires roughly 27% equity to call
0.57

Against the range above, pokerstove gives JdTd 46% equity, so the call in position look OK-ish.

Turn is T of clubs, Villain checks, Hero bets 0.75xPot with his 2 pair and Villain overbet shoves for something like 150BB.

At this point we can knock out 77, 88, 99 and ATo from his range. As a loose estimate Villain is making this play with made broadway, sets, 2pairs, broadway draw + top pair, flush draws, AK of spades, and very occasionally AKo if he secretly is a demented LAGtard.
i.e his range is

{AQ, KK, JJ, TT, KJ, KQ, AsKs, AKo, AsTs}

Against this range we are crushed by AQ, KK, JJ, TT, KJ, beating the draws and crushing only AKo.
Pokerstove gives our equity against this range as being 35%

Hero's pot odds are
0.89 + 2.22
-------------- :1 = 1.4:1 implying Hero must have at least 41% equity to call here.
2.22

Thus Hero folds.

Question: - What if hero can put other flush draws in Villain's range? Ax suited?
Should Hero bet the turn at all, or just check it back and hope to call a small bet on the river. My reasoning was that AK, KQ and some flush draws would just flat call the turn so I'd get some value, but in retrospect perhaps I should have seen this jam coming. Thoughts appreciated.

Hand is good and nice analysis. Yes his preflop range is going to be wider and so he can have more bluff combos on the turn. But there is a lot we don't know for sure so I would be satisfied with assigning a nittier range as it works both ways eg there is also Q9 for the second nuts.
We beat none of his pure value range so the fold is solid imo

I probably squeeze PF here but think it's close.

Post seems fine.

Don't necessarily agree with this. I'm checking a lot of my range on this flop OOP.


Nah, that's being results-oriented. I think the turn is a must-bet. Good card for our range, Kx isn't folding yet, plus we hate all 4s, Ks, As, Qs, 9s, and spades and would like to get money in while we still can.


Also, be a little careful with the equity numbers. Just because we have more than x% equity the pot odds are laying us doesn't necessarily mean we can call if it's hard to realize that equity. Just because we have less than the x% equity doesn't mean we have to fold because we might be okay when you factor in implied odds, etc.

The key thing that will save you a lot of off the table is realising that villain has put in so much money that you can literally fold everything except AQ. Even if you do this his bluffs (if he ever has them) will still be losing money.

But there is a question whether we should call all AQ otf and whether we should flat all AQ pre. I suspect that I would have only few AQ ott.
Another think is V"s range ott, he could cbet many AQ which makes value x/r range weaker and also could play more FDs by x/r. Imo you can find ranges you have the 41% against and it is still close decision otr.

Well played.

Don’t think AQo is a 3! pre it’s strong enough to flat and we don’t get much benefit of having TPTK on Q hi boards when we have KK and AA. Could 3! AQs at a frequency.

AQ with spade is a decent call. Q9s is also fine depending on how many AQ you actually have OTT. Either way the wall of text I didn’t read seems unnecessary

In terms of ranges JT is surely the bottom or next to the bottom of the value range OTT anyway.

Interesting responses guys! Thanks for your input. With regards to AQ, I am 3betting it sometimes, and calling sometimes, depending on opponent tendencies and also just how I'm feeling on the day. I also might put the PF squeeze on sometimes, but definitely not every time.

nvm on folding pre
Are we looking to straight/flush mine? Is this even a thing?
Apparently it is

I've never had a problem seeing some flops with suited connectors, Ax etc when stacks are big and you have position. You can exploit opponents who cbet too much/too little quite easily and it adds a little variety beyond just set mining and broadways.

I mean essentially yes - we are looking to hit a straight or a flush and stack an overpair when we do this. It also helps you get more value when you do have something like a set, because it introduces semi-bluffs into your raising range rather than just sets.