Fold versus fish betting river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Fold versus fish betting river?

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06-25-2019 , 09:39 PM

aprogle

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 555

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.25(BB)
CO ($11.09) [VPIP: 15.4% | PFR: 3.8% | AGG: 27.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 26]
HERO ($24.75) [VPIP: 32.1% | PFR: 25.1% | AGG: 38% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | Hands: 4350]
SB ($7.22) [VPIP: 5.6% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 45.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 18]
BB ($58.07) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 9.7% | AGG: 30% | 3-Bet: 10% | Hands: 31]
UTG ($31.42) [VPIP: 68.1% | PFR: 17% | AGG: 38% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 48]
HJ ($40.45) [VPIP: 39% | PFR: 22% | AGG: 26.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]

Dealt to Hero: A

UTG Calls $0.25, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $1.10, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $0.85
Hero SPR on Flop: [9.27 effective]

Flop ($2.55): 2

UTG Checks, HERO Bets $1.57 (Rem. Stack: 22.08), UTG Calls $1.57 (Rem. Stack: 28.75)

Turn ($5.69): 2

UTG Checks, HERO Bets $2.96 (Rem. Stack: 19.12), UTG Calls $2.96 (Rem. Stack: 25.79)

River ($11.61): 2

UTG Bets $8.27 (Rem. Stack: 17.52), Hero...

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06-25-2019 , 09:47 PM

LordPallidan12

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 2,140

yes fold looks good. river donks from recs are generally pretty nutted (at least in their eyes, they think they have a good hand - which usually happens to beat op)

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06-26-2019 , 12:09 AM

I_lose

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 506

I actually don’t hate a call. Rounding off some numbers for easy use, we have to defend about 57% of the time to keep V indifferent to bluffing. I think, given the action, AA falls in the top 58% of our hands that can beat a bluff. So, it is kind of a nasty spot, but I think it’s a call.

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06-26-2019 , 04:47 AM

iamlagLOL

adept

Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 811

Sigh call.

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06-26-2019 , 09:48 AM

iburydoscocaroaches

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 1,222

so in situations like this you have to think about how strong you look to your opponent and what he thinks about YOUR range. All your doing is looking at AA and saying I have an over pair I call. I guarantee your beat here hes never bluffing. You not only iso raised him but barreled 2 times into him he knows at this point your not bluffing. It looks like he back doored a flush on you and is donking out not as a bluff but for value. Eve the sizing 8/11 this looks super strong. This is a easy fold.

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06-26-2019 , 10:38 AM

dynamite2006

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 789

Quote:

Originally Posted by iburydoscocaroaches

There are a ton of assumptions and guessing happening here. I am not agreeing or disagreeing with them but merely pointing out that once we start making decisions based on thinking we know exactly what our opponent is doing we open ourselves up to just getting absolutely destroyed when they aren't doing what we think they are.

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06-26-2019 , 12:38 PM

FreakDaddy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 17,996

Quote:

Originally Posted by iburydoscocaroaches

I don't think that's your main concern versus a fish/whale though. You're more concerned that they are over valuing their hand.

But all-in all, most fish/whales will lead on the river for this sizing or more when they have a big hand. There aren't enough draws that missed, so it looks like a narrow fold, but it's close.

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06-26-2019 , 12:45 PM

I_lose

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 506

Quote:

Originally Posted by dynamite2006

+1
Just stick to the math and make decisions based on that.

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06-26-2019 , 12:55 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Fold. He probably has A2ss-A5ss a bunch here. Regardless of what he actually has, we're not good ~30%.

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06-27-2019 , 05:44 AM

#10

ionutd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 13,624

iso bigger
I would mash flop and turn, not expecting the fish to fold pairs and many broadways
ap looks like fold

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06-27-2019 , 05:46 AM

#11

aprogle

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 555

Thanks guys

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06-27-2019 , 06:33 AM

#12

Travbana

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 1,573

Raise bigger pre, bet bigger OTT.
River is an easy fold, UTG limps pre, he'll have a bunch of weak Axs in his range, probably had a gutshot on the flop, picked up the flushdraw on the turn and now is trying to take you to valuetown.

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