Merge - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 120.2 BB (VPIP: 26.69, PFR: 21.59, 3Bet Preflop: 7.57, Hands: 18,355)
Hero (BB): 219 BB
UTG: 223.04 BB (VPIP: 31.19, PFR: 7.24, 3Bet Preflop: 3.92, Hands: 11,936)
CO: 77.28 BB (VPIP: 23.29, PFR: 8.59, 3Bet Preflop: 1.23, Hands: 698)
BTN: 48.24 BB (VPIP: 39.24, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 12.88, Hands: 296)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 3 3

UTG raises to 3.4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB

Flop: (7.2 BB, 2 players) 5 9 3
Hero checks, UTG bets 7.2 BB, Hero raises to 23.2 BB, UTG raises to 219.64 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 192.4 BB and is all-in


I think it's important to note here that the fish in this hand is not the crazy maniac type. He does know what the fold button is (a little bit at least, but a fish is still a fish). Obviously for 100bbs it's a slam dunk call, but for 200bbs? Will all fish just make this move with pocket AA? At first, I just thought if he has it it's just a cooler, but now I'm not so sure...

if he shoves 55/99/AA you have a breakeven call
if he shoves other big pairs easy call
and he doesn't prob open 55 utg with that pfr so you're good to go

I'd consider folding if we were 400bb+ deep, even then I'm probably still calling.

This guy has a nitty PFR, and he's raising here from UTG. Pocket 9s may be the lowest pair this villain raises with UTG. Heck, with his stats, 99 might even be a limp for this villain.
What all that means to me is, this villain should be showing up here with a big pocket pair most of the time which is good for us.
I would call.

Minimum defense is 3.5% of hands at this sizing.

I’ve got 336 calls in my BB defense range vs UTG open.

So I should be calling ~12 combos.

The sets get me to 9...

So it’s a call for me.

that's twice as wide as it should be vs a pot open

Even if you did call pre with 336 combos (way too many), you don't check-raise all of them vs a pot-sized c-bet. Your range is much smaller once you've taken that action. I'm not sure how you came up with an MDF number of 3.5% (is that the number you get if villain open jams 29x pot?), but it wouldn't be very useful even if it was correct. (I think villain is actually raising about 3.8x pot*, so MDF would be about 20%, meaning we'd need to defend about 20% of our check-raising range, if we were slavishly using the MDF concept).
We don't really care about making villain indifferent with airballs in this spot. All we care about is whether we have enough equity vs his jamming range for calling to be +EV. (We need about 46% equity, I think). As long as he makes this move with other hands that aren't sets, it should be a call.

* I've probably made a mistake somewhere. Math is hard.

Should? Based on what? That size is consistent with snowie preflop advisor and upswings recommendations.

Ugh. I read the action wrong on the flop. For some reason I read it as hero checks, and V jams all in for 192. So 3.5% was (7/192+7)... maths hard but reading is too!

It was a weird hand, for sure. All the raises make calculating MDF really complicated as well, because it's not a 30x pot bet, it's a raise of about 4x pot. :/

Vs an MP 3x, I think Snowie calls with something like TT-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K7s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo (it 3-bets JJ+, AK, AJs, KQs). That's 250 combos*. Vs a 3.4bb open, it would be a bit tighter.
In real life, especially in the micros, you'd probably cut that range considerably, as it's highly unlikely that 53s, K7s, or even QJo would make money as calls.

* Once the flop comes down, card removal effects mean a BB playing that range only has 227 combos on that board.

upswing's recommendations are based on a 2.5x opening size not a 3.4x open size from a nitty PFR who is UTG.

Fooooold! 0 draws going on, guy RfI really tight and these passive fish only jam AA/KK in flush draw boards because they're afraid of the flush getting there, since there's no draw it's unlikely villain has AA/KK

Lol this hand is sick. Do we actually fold here? I know 100BBs it’s lol call but 2 buyins is a lot

Do you fold 55?

I'm not sure id have that level of discipline to fold lol wondering what they have though


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Yeah I feel like folding this might be bad because of misclick/spaz factor. It’s one of those spots you will get in every once in 100k hands.

Snapcall.

Never

That doesn’t make sense. If a guy is 12/9 he never has 33 or 55. So 33=55. It’s either 99 or AA/KK

call

fold this is like fold pocket Aces preflop

i think calling flop is good to. you can shove river no matter what. you can not miss opportunities like these in micros, this is the best flop we would like to see vs a pot bet

where did you find this info?

Dont fold sets