Hi everybody. He is TAG reg, 2.5k hands, 18/12. Should I go 4bet AI or fold on the flop? Or maybe just a call against his cbet? I didn't call because I don't want to give him odds to make his flush (if he is got a flush draw). What do you think?

raise

On this definition of a dry board? Raise it!

Lose to 3x77 and 3x22 (presumably pocket 2s would have folded though). This feels like a flush draw, same hand as yours, KQ, potentially QQ. You block KK.

You don't 4bet allin pre because it makes you super easy to play against pre, instead you can 4bet to a smaller sizing that will force villain to either fold hands that have equity against you, flat and play oop or jam, obv call if he 5bet shoves.

I don't see how you can ever consider folding this flop, you have top pair top kicker and the backdoor nut flushdraw, just get it in after his flop raise, he can have plenty of worse hands and just because he had aces this time doesn't make a difference.

PF seems okay 150BB deep. 100B deep I'm more inclined to 4-bet/GII.

I generally just call flop the first time because I feel like most of my range doesn't want to raise here.

As played, we're behind AA/KK/77 (if the latter 3-bets PF), ahead of a lot of flush draws, and we split with AK combos. Calling feels awkward to me, largely because I'm not convinced we can fold on any cards against a 40% PSB turn shove.

So if it's folding vs. shoving -- if I'm doing my math right, we need just under 36% equity to make a shove 0 EV, assuming villain never folds and calls his entire range. That's pre-rake, though... and that means it's actually pretty close. Just playing around with Equilab here, but against KK+,77,AKs,AKo we're at 28% equity. If you add five combos of flush draws it's around 37.5%.

I probably still shove, but it's not as clear as I originally thought.

I think 4betting pre is fine from these positions but 150bb is getting close to the limit of where i'm wanting to 4bet stack off. Don't 4bet shove though you want to make it somewhere around 45 - 55 or 2.5x - 3x the 3bet. I also don't mind the flat preflop though as it's getting a little deep.

As played id flat the flop, flush draws are a small part of villains range and we don't want to narrow villains range to AK AA 77 and a few flush draws. Call and play turns and rivers. As played it's put you in a really awkward spot . But as James said it's probably close enough to shove. I might call flop and gii on non club turns that's another option. Can't really fold now though , even though villains 3bet flop line is pretty nutted.

Same for me.

AP, u block so so much -> just get it in

I think just a call otf is ok. Raising is ok too, but if he 3bet I should fold I think. I don't believe that he will 3bet with a flush draw.
Result: I went AI and he called and showed 77...

Doesn't surprise me at'all i think you could make an exploit fold on the flop as you suggest. 3bets on the flop or turn are just so heavily weighted to very nutted value hands. I think 18/12 is more inline with a Nit than a Tag as'well but bordering on a Tag.

Some rough estimates for stats here for player types.

Nit
20/15 and below

Tag
20/15 - 25/20

Lag
25/20 - 35-30

Maniac
35/30 and above

Fish = high gap between vpip/pfr

loose passive
30/10 etc..

Tight Passive
15/5 etc..

20/15 nit? Are you serious? ))
I think I should just raise-fold otf because he is representing too strong hand. My first thoughts were: He is got sevens!

raise fold sounds legit

Raise fold is fine I think in general as an exploit. Don’t need to take all the ‘coolers’ on the chin if we can avoid it

If I think his 3bet range is narrow enough for me to just flat rather than merge 4b AKs here, then I’m never raising flop and am just calling down.

I feel like this is an example of wires getting crossed/ not having a plan etc.

20/15 would be low end of Tag , 19/14 high end of nit. So nit should of been 19/14 and below.

4b pre

if you're raising flop it should be larger

as played simply call the flop 3b

Can you post the 3bet and ft4b stats on villain. Overall 3bet stat Sb 3bet stat and 3bet vs hero stat. 2.5k hands should give us a really good idea how villain plays vs you.

Sure. Here you go: 4.8% 3bet, fold to 4bet 50%, total SB 3bet 3.5%, so I just called him in position.

I agree. I should raise a bit larger.
But I still think it's a call vs cbet or raise-fold, because there is no point to just call his 3bet. What is the plan ott then? Fold with such a big pot? Or call? If call, why no 4bet AI otf then?

Looks quite nitty with 3bets and SB 3bet is very nitty as'well TT+,AKs,AKo, 4betting is starting to look pretty undesirable. Id expect villains continue range vs a 4bet to be really quite nitty as'well. I think 50% continue range from a 3.5% 3bet is something like QQ+ AKs. Maybe someone can work on the Ev of 4betting with intention of calling off here in this spot vs that range.

It's also possible your vs a polerized range though as'well something like KK+,J9s+,T8s+,98s and villains only value 3betting KK+ with some bluffs. In which case your in pretty terrible shape if you 4bet. So calling the 3bet has to be best here i would think.

I think postflop you just have to proceed with caution i wouldn't raise at any point . And folding perhaps becomes a possibility at some point in the had vs multiple barrels. You need to take a look at what hands villain is flatting from the sb is AK JJ QQ TT in the flats and how does villain play his bluffs postflop.

It's possible that when this villain barrels it's only ever KK+ in this spot (or 77) But villain having 77 is actually a bit of a surprise given the frequencies. Does villain 3bet more aggresively than usual vs hero ?. What are villains vs Hero 3bet stats ?.

3bet vs hero: 5%. It does not matter, because I think it's a raise-fold otf. No point to go all in here vs him. Vs LAG I would 4bet shove otf.

I think raising flop is a mistake tbh it serves no point vs villains perceived range.

Call vs cbet is ok too I think.